We are now a month through the 2024 season, and there have been plenty of surprises that have sprouted up over the first four weeks. On a positive note, the Sam Darnold resurgence in Minnesota, where he has the Vikings undefeated and atop the NFC North, is a development that most didn’t see coming. The same can be said in Washington, where No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal and has the Commanders leading the NFC East after the opening month.
While there are plenty of positive storylines for teams across the league after the first four weeks, there’s also the other side of that coin. There are other clubs who were looked at as legit playoff contenders coming into the year that now find themselves floundering. We’ve collected those summer playoff hopefuls who have struggled (to varying degrees) to begin this season and have tiered them in terms of how high their panic level should be going forward.
Panic level: Should be fine
Teams: San Francisco 49ers (2-2), Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Both of these teams have dealt with injuries to key members of the roster.
In San Francisco, the club has seen running back Christian McCaffrey land on injured reserve due to an Achilles injury, and has yet to play this season. Also, tight end George Kittle and wideout Deebo Samuel have managed injuries, while defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is done for the year with a torn triceps. Even in the latest Week 4 win, linebacker Fred Warner suffered an apparent ankle injury. Of course, if these injuries continue to pile up, there should be plenty of cause for concern in the Bay Area. That said, they have a talented enough roster and top-tier coaching staff to absorb these current hits.
For instance, the Niners still have the third-highest yards-per-play average (6.3) in the league through four weeks, and Brandon Aiyuk has yet to truly get going. The schedule is tough the rest of the way, but the defending NFC champions should continue to rival for a top seed in the conference.
As for Green Bay, there’s something comical about its two losses on the season coming in games that Jordan Love has started, and its two wins were when Malik Willis was under center. The Packers had their franchise quarterback sidelined for two weeks after suffering an MCL injury in the closing seconds of the Week 1 opener. While Love couldn’t lead the Packers to a victory in Week 4 in his return, there’s still plenty of room for Green Bay to make the playoffs.
The division is tough with everyone at least .500, but there’s a lot to like about Matt LaFleur’s team. Defensively, the Packers have been able to get off the field on third down (30.3% opponent conversion rate) but need to be tighter in the red zone (60% touchdown rate). On offense, Love can’t have three-interception days like he did Sunday against the Vikings, but the unit is explosive, averaging 6.4 yards per play (second best in the NFL). Their remaining schedule also isn’t too daunting.
Panic level: Zero margin for error
Teams: Dallas Cowboys (2-2), Philadelphia Eagles (2-2), New York Jets (2-2)
This group features a trio of 2-2 clubs that have the capabilities of getting back into the postseason, but can’t slip up as they move forward through the rest of the year.
With the New York Jets, they are behind the Buffalo Bills (3-1) for first place in the AFC East and have, at times, looked like a playoff contender. However, there are other moments like Sunday, where they managed just nine points in a loss to the Denver Broncos at home. For a team that has one of the tougher schedules in the NFL, those are the games that they can’t let slip away from them. They have a Week 5 matchup against the red-hot Vikings in London before coming home to host the Bills on Monday night in Week 6. After that, three of their next four games are on the road, so this is a critical period for this talented roster to start playing at its top level. If they don’t, things could get out of hand in a hurry.
As we move to the NFC East, neither the Cowboys nor Eagles have truly impressed so far this season, and both clubs are currently looking up to Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders in the division. Dallas beat up on bad opponents in the Browns and Giants to earn their two wins this season and have yet to enjoy a victory at AT&T Stadium. Defensively, the unit ranks 24th in yards per play allowed (5.7) and 27th in rushing yards allowed (145.8) per game. On top of that, the club is now dealing with injuries to the unit, with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence set to miss time. They have a much-needed bye week coming up in Week 7, but the road ahead is tough: at Pittsburgh (Week 5), vs. Detroit (Week 6), at San Francisco (Week 8) and at Atlanta (Week 9).
All that leads to what could prove to be a massive divisional matchup with the Eagles in Dallas. Speaking of Philly, they’ve been without their top pass-catching options, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, due to injury and are coming off a Week 4 loss to the Bucs. Their schedule is a little softer over the next few weeks leading up to that game against the Cowboys, but the offense — even when discounting injury — has looked off throughout the season, which has the seat under head coach Nick Sirianni heating up. Another sort of lifeless effort in the coming weeks could send folks around Lincoln Financial Field into a frenzy.
Panic level: Danger zone
Teams: Cincinnati Bengals (1-3), Los Angeles Rams (1-3), Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Both the Bengals and Rams find themselves sitting at 1-3 after the first month and in last place in their respective divisions. With Cincinnati, its lone win of the season came Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, which is hardly a sign of the tides turning. The defense is the key cause of concern as the Bengals are allowing 26 points per game so far (26th in the NFL) and struggle to get off the field on third down (22nd in opponent third-down conversion rate). Pair that with a division that features stout defensive units, and things are starting to look dire for the Bengals. That’s particularly true in Week 5 when they have what feels like a must-win game at home against the Baltimore Ravens, who just decimated the Bills on Sunday night. A loss there effectively eliminates any remaining hope of an AFC North title and has the Bengals possibly looking at a lost season altogether.
A similar case can be made when speaking about the Rams. Injuries have taken a massive toll on Sean McVay’s team, especially on offense, with high-profile targets Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. Added to the injury bug taking a bite out of the roster is the simply poor play on defense. Los Angeles is allowing the second-most points per game (28.8) and second-most yards per game (385.3).
In Jacksonville, you can make a pretty easy case that the season is already lost after dropping to 0-4. Now, all eyes are on the Jaguars brass, including head coach Doug Pederson, to see if he’ll be the first coach fired in 2024. Coming up in Week 6 and Week 7, the Jaguars have back-to-back games in London, and it’ll be fascinating to see if Pederson is still the coach by the time they get back to the United States for Week 8 if things don’t subside.
Finally, the Dolphins dropped to 1-3 after a loss to Tennessee on Monday night, and, after making the playoffs a season ago, are treading water. They are down to their third quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve and backup Skylar Thompson (rib) also injured. Tyler Huntley got the start in Week 5, and the offense was glacial. Tagovailoa is reportedly symptom-free , which could pave the way for him to return when he’s eligible to come off of IR in Week 8, but the Dolphins will desperately need to get in the win column in the meantime. In Week 5, they’ll be in New England before hitting the bye week and then will face the Colts in Indy in Week 7. If they are 1-5 by the time Tagovailoa is eligible to step back onto the field, the season could be all but over.
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