The NFL is coming off what I would consider its best week of the season. The showdown between the Chiefs and Bills turned into an instant classic, and that’s not even mentioning The NFL Today crew destroying a village’s worth of tables in front of Bills Mafia leading up to that matchup. On top of that, we had a number of other great matchups, and it’s noticeable that teams are starting to ramp up as the playoffs inch closer.
As we move down the stretch run in our little betting window on the internet, we’re coming off a solid Week 11, going 8-6 ATS and 10-4 SU on the slate as a whole. For my five locks of the week, we went 3-2 ATS, which included a correctly picked upset win by the Steelers against Baltimore, along with the Chargers edging out the Bengals. We were on the wrong side of Chiefs-Bills by backing Mahomes, but we won’t lose much sleep over that.
Moving on to Week 12, I’ve circled the Harbaugh Bowl as one of my five locks of the week, along with Dan Quinn taking on his former Cowboys squad. Let’s roll.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 25-25
ATS: 75-88-3
ML: 105-61
All betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a rough spot for the Cowboys in more ways than one. First, they are faced with a major rest discrepancy. They are working on a short week after playing on Monday night and will now visit a Washington team that is coming off its mini-bye after playing last Thursday. That alone creates massive hurdles, but then there’s the massive talent gap between the NFC East rivals. Cooper Rush vs. Jayden Daniels is a David vs. Goliath matchup at quarterback, and the Dallas offense continues to look lost with Rush under center. Oh, and Commanders coach Dan Quinn has institutional knowledge of how to attack this team after serving as Dallas’ defensive coordinator the previous three years before accepting the Washington gig.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are 6-0 ATS against below-.500 teams this season, and clubs that are 9.5 or more underdogs are 0-6 ATS this year. Don’t be afraid of the double-digit spread here.
Projected score: Commanders 30, Cowboys 17
The pick: Commanders -10
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
We haven’t been afraid of laying big numbers this season, especially when it comes to the Lions, so why stop now? Sure, Anthony Richardson looked much better in his return as a starter last week, but how much of that was due to playing a New York Jets team that has already quit on the season? I expect to see more of the version of Richardson from earlier this season, where he barely was able to complete half of his passes this week, especially when he’s forced into a pass-first game script against a Lions team that loves to pour it on against inferior opponents. Detroit is 4-1 ATS on the road this season with an average margin of victory sitting at a league-best 12 points.
Projected score: Lions 33, Colts 23
The pick: Lions -7.5
Ravens at Chargers
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
As an older brother myself, it feels a little sacrilegious to fade John Harbaugh and the Ravens here in this brotherly matchup with Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, but that’s exactly what I’m doing. Yes, Baltimore has two MVP-caliber players in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, providing them with one of the more lethal offenses in the league, but I simply don’t trust the secondary. That unit is giving up the most passing yards per game this season by a healthy margin and faces a quarterback in Justin Herbert, who is extremely capable of picking them apart. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense has been solid, holding opponents to a league-best 14.5 points per game, and have been solid at stopping the run. Jackson has been particularly strong “Monday Night Football” in his career (5-1 ATS), so there is plenty of risk here, but something tells me Los Angeles keeps it within a field goal and possibly wins outright.
Projected score: Chargers 27, Ravens 24
The pick: Chargers +3
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
I was a big believer in the Green Bay Packers at the start of the season, and that has waned a bit as we’ve gone through the year. However, that’s not stopping me from taking them at home when they are just 2.5-point favorites against a reeling 49ers team. San Francisco is on the brink of its season falling by the wayside as they are 5-5 on the year and come into this matchup banged up. Brock Purdy is dealing with right shoulder soreness, and they may not have star pass rusher Nick Bosa available because of a hip/oblique injury. Even if both play, one would assume they’ll be limited in what they can do on the field. The Niners are 1-3 ATS on the road this season, and I don’t expect that to improve in Week 12.
Projected score: Packers 27, 49ers 23
The pick: Packers -2.5
Bonus bet: The SportsLine model has simulated 49ers vs. Packers 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total. See which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations.
In an otherwise forgetful season for the Giants, at least they get the entertainment of Tommy DeVito coming back under center following the benching of Daniel Jones, right? While DeVito should provide a bit of a boost, I don’t believe it’ll result in wins. The Bucs are also coming off their Week 11 bye and are far more equipped to put up points, even if their receiver room is dinged by injuries. The Giants are surrendering a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry, which sets up Bucky Irving for a strong day on the ground. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is the second-best team in the league on third down and third-best in the red zone. If they get up early, Irving should be able to grind out clock and help them cruise to a win.
And this is a good time to highlight the Buccaneers for a future. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay sits at +275 to win the NFC South. Yes, the Bucs lost the head-to-head tiebreaker against the first-place Falcons, but their schedule should allow them to leap over them outright, making this an intriguing second-half wager to consider.
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Giants 16
The pick: Buccaneers -5
Rest of the bunch
Steelers at Browns (Thursday)
Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 17
The pick: Steelers -3.5
Chiefs at Panthers
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Chiefs -11
Vikings at Bears
Projected score: Vikings 23, Bears 20
The pick: Bears +3.5
Patriots at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 28, Patriots 20
The pick: Dolphins -7
Titans at Texans
Projected score: Texans 27, Titans 16
The pick: Texans -8
Broncos at Raiders
Projected score: Broncos 21, Raiders 17
The pick: Raiders +5.5
Cardinals at Seahawks
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 23
The pick: Cardinals -1
Eagles at Rams
Projected score: Eagles 26, Rams 21
The pick: Eagles -3
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