As Christmas approaches in the NFL season, Week 16 had some fireworks that shook up the league landscape. Jayden Daniels had a performance for the ages for the Washington Commanders in their upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles, making sure the Commanders seize the final playoff spot in the conference (Washington needs just one more win).
The Atlanta Falcons retook the NFC South lead from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the AFC playoff race hasn’t been finished yet. Thank the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals for that.
Week 16 certainly provided some presents in the NFL with the holidays in full swing. There were plenty of overreactions this week as the playoffs approach, but which were actually overreactions and which were reality?
Michael Penix will take the Falcons to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Falcons benching Kirk Cousins for Penix looked like a desperate move early in the week, but the tide has turned on Atlanta’s chances to win the NFC South. The Falcons crushed the Giants and the Buccaneers lost to the Cowboys, giving the Falcons the division lead with two games to play.
Atlanta has the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay by sweeping the Buccaneers earlier this season, meaning Penix is two wins away from taking the team to the playoffs. Even in the blowout win over the Giants, Penix threw for only 202 yards with an interception and rushed for only three yards.
Penix wasn’t the reason Atlanta beat New York, but he got his feet wet in his first start. The Falcons have the Commanders next week, followed by the Panthers to close out the season. The Buccaneers finish with the Panthers and Saints, a much easier path with a more experienced quarterback in Baker Mayfield.
The Falcons don’t need Penix to be great, just protect the football in the games he starts. Remember, all Atlanta has to do is tie Tampa Bay in the division. The Buccaneers blew a huge opportunity against the Cowboys. They need the Falcons to falter now, which may not happen if Penix improves by the week.
Saquon Barkley will break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Barkley had a strong day with 150 rushing yards in the Eagles’ loss to the Commanders, putting him at 1,838 for the season. Even with the historic day, Barkley is still slightly off Dickerson’s pace — as he is set to finish with 2,083 rushing yards on the season (22 shy of Dickerson).
Can Barkley catch Dickerson? Absolutely, but the Eagles are a win away from the No. 2 seed in the NFC. A Lions or Vikings win next week essentially eliminates the Eagles from the race for the No. 1 seed, meaning there’s little need to play Barkley in Week 18 (Eagles can rest up for the playoffs with their seed locked up).
The Eagles need a big day from Barkley against the Cowboys, and the Lions and Vikings to lose next week for the final regular season game to matter. Then Barkley has a shot to catch Dickerson. Barkley can get to 2,000 yards, but getting 268 yards in the final two games is a tough stretch with nothing to play for in the final week.
Bengals will take one of the AFC playoff spots
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
No matter how it’s broken down, the Bengals are the No. 10 seed in the AFC with two weeks to go. A Chargers (9-6) and Broncos (9-6) win next week eliminates the Bengals, who are two back of both teams.
So why is this still a conversation for a sub .500 team? The Bengals play the Broncos in Cincinnati next week before finishing off with the Steelers. Cincinnati has an opportunity to extend its season another week and earn a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver.
Too much still needs to happen to take a playoff spot. The Bengals have a 4-6 conference record, losing a conference-record tiebreaker to the Colts and Dolphins. Basically, the Bengals need to win out and hope the Colts and Dolphins lose one of their last two. They also need the Broncos to lose their final two games to have a shot.
Certainly not impossible, but also an overreaction to claim this is a playoff team.
Jayden Daniels is having a better rookie season than C.J. Stroud did
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Daniels had a game for the ages in Sunday’s win over the Eagles, throwing for five touchdown passes (including three in the fourth quarter) in Washington’s comeback. He became the second quarterback in NFL history with 5+ passing touchdowns, 250+ passing yards and 75+ rushing yards in a game while also becoming the first rookie in NFL history with multiple game-winning passing touchdowns in the final 30 seconds of a game.
Daniels has completed 69.7% of his passes for 3,303 yards with 22 touchdowns to eight interceptions for a 101.3 passer rating. He also has run for 737 yards and six scores, having 4,040 total yards and 28 total touchdowns. The Commanders are also 10-5 and on the verge of the playoffs.
Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to five interceptions and an 110.8 rating, leading the NFL in interception rate (1.0%). The Texans also won the AFC South and a playoff game off the arm of Stroud.
Daniels is a different quarterback, but he has a higher completion percentage and is one touchdown away from matching Stroud in pass touchdowns. He also already has won one more game than Stroud.
Stroud had an historic rookie season n 2023. Daniels has been even better in 2024.
Vikings will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Vikings control their own destiny for the top seed in the NFC after surviving the first of their brutal three-game stretch to close the season. Sunday’s win over the Seahawks put the Vikings one win away from a Week 18 showdown with the Lions for the No. 1 seed — and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.
With the Eagles falling to the Commanders, the Vikings and Lions are tied for the best record in the conference at 13-2. All Minnesota has to do is survive Green Bay (at home) for a date with Detroit in Week 18. The Vikings are in position to seize the No. 1 seed, but beating Green Bay twice in a season is no easy task.
Minnesota deserves to be in tis conversation for the No. 1 seed, but let’s see what the Vikings do against the Packers next week. This will be the difference between the No. 1 and No. 5 seed.
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