After spending the past 24 hours talking with Santa, I have some good news for everyone: I’ve been informed that every single one of you has made the nice list this year, so you’re getting my Week 16 picks as a present! Is it the best present ever? No, because the best present ever would be the Hallmark Channel sending me a personalized copy of the Chiefs’ Christmas movie, but getting picks is a solid second-best present ever.
Speaking of the Chiefs’ Christmas movie, I finally got around to watching ‘A Holiday Touchdown: A Chiefs Love Story’ and let me just say, it was actually good. I’m now convinced the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl.
If you’re wondering whether you can trust my opinion about the movie, the answer is that I’ve watched way more Hallmark Christmas movies than I care to admit, so yes, you can trust my opinion.
I’m not going to give the plot away, but I will say that I knew it was going to be a good movie the second that Catrick Mahomes showed up on screen.
Speaking of Catrick Mahomes, the Chiefs might want to call him and see if he can play quarterback this week because the real Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury.
Will Mahomes’ injury be enough to get me to pick AGAINST the Chiefs this week?
Let’s get to the Week 16 picks and find out.
NFL Week 16 picks
Denver (9-5) at L.A. Chargers (8-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
It’s a good thing there’s a game on Amazon this week, because that means I’ll be able to get all of my last-minute Christmas shopping done WHILE I watch it. My plan is to do about 15 minutes of shopping every time there’s a punt on Thursday night, which means I might be able to get seven hours of shopping done during the three-hour game. The math there doesn’t sound like it makes sense, but trust me, it does. These two teams punt a lot.
I’m expecting a puntfest on Thursday, and I know what you’re thinking, I don’t talk about punters enough here, so I’m going to do that now. Denver’s Riley Dixon and the Chargers’ J.K. Scott both have 66 punts this year, which puts them in a tie for the second-most punts in the NFL. That’s right, the Chargers and Broncos have had more punts this year than every single NFL team except for the Cleveland Browns.
This would be the perfect game for the NFL to debut the Punt Zone channel.
What a Christmas gift that would be to all of us.
Speaking of Christmas gifts, the Broncos could give one to all of their fans by winning this game. If the Broncos beat the Chargers, Denver will clinch a playoff berth, which will put them in the postseason for the first time since 2015. The Broncos have gone eight seasons without a playoff appearance, which is tied with the Panthers for the second-longest drought in the NFL.
The drought could end this week, but I don’t think it will. The problem for the Broncos is that they have a rookie quarterback and if I know one thing about rookie quarterbacks, it’s that they always seem to hit the wall late in the season, and Bo Nix hasn’t just hit the wall, he’s crashed into it going 90 mph in a car without airbags. Since the calendar hit December, Nix has thrown five interceptions in two games, which is a wildly high number when you consider that he threw just six interceptions in Denver’s first 12 games combined.
Although I don’t trust rookie quarterbacks, I also don’t trust the Chargers, which I think I mention every week. This team has lost three of its last four games and they only reason they haven’t lost four in a row is because Kirk Cousins gifted them four interceptions in a Week 13 game that the Chargers still barely won (17-13) despite Cousins’ generosity.
This feels like a coin flip game, but since no one carries around coins any more, I have nothing to flip, so I’m going to have to trust my gut here.
Since Week 8, the Amazon game has been a disaster for road teams. Playing on a short week is difficult enough, but doing it late in the season is even harder, which might explain why road teams are 1-7 over the past eight weeks in the Amazon game. And some of those upsets have been big, like the Texans losing to the Jets in Week 9 and the Steelers losing to the Browns in Week 12.
The Chargers winning this game and then inexplicably losing one of their final two games — they play the Patriots and Raiders — would be the most Chargers thing ever, so that’s what I’m going to assume happens.
The pick: Chargers 20-17 over Broncos
Houston (9-5) at Kansas City (13-1)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC)
I’m not sure if it qualifies as a dynasty just yet, but after beating the Dolphins on Sunday, the Texans have now officially won the AFC South two years in a row. Sure, that’s not quite the same as winning it nine years in a row (like the Chiefs) or winning three Super Bowls in five years (like the Chiefs), but since Houston hadn’t made the postseason a single time since 2019, I’m going to grade them on a curve and call this thing a dynasty.
In this battle of dynasties, the Chiefs seemed like the obvious pick until about 3:41 p.m. ET on Dec. 15 when Patrick Mahomes went down with an ankle injury. That injury throws a wrench into everything: It throws a wrench into this game, it throws a wrench into the AFC playoff race, and it throws a wrench into my fantasy team this week, which no one cares about except for me.
I have no idea what’s going to happen this week with Mahomes, but if I were the Chiefs, I’d keep him on the bench. If Mahomes sits out, that would give him 10 days to rest between his injury and his next game, which would come on Christmas Day against the Steelers. I’ve watched enough Hallmark Christmas movies about the Chiefs to know that there’s no way they’re losing on Christmas.
If Mahomes sits out Week 16 and plays on Christmas, he’d then have another 10 days before Week 18, which would give his ankle a good chunk of time to heal. If the Chiefs were to lose on Saturday against the Texans, but win in Week 17 (vs. Steelers) and win in Week 18 (vs. Broncos), they’d clinch the No. 1 seed and Mahomes would get EVEN MORE time to rest because the top seed would give them the first round bye.
I have no idea if Mahomes is going to play this week, but guess what: I DON’T CARE. I’m taking the Chiefs either way. The Chiefs are so good this year that they don’t even need their offense to score points. The Chiefs haven’t topped 30 points in a single game, but they’re still 13-1, making them the first team SINCE 1925 to win at least 13 games without topping 30 points (The Chiefs have scored exactly 30 points twice, but they haven’t topped that number).
There are only three other teams that have yet to top 30 points this year — Raiders, Giants and Patriots — and those three teams are a combined 7-35 in case you’re wondering how crazy it is that the Chiefs are 13-1.
The Chiefs have proven all season that they can win low-scoring games and if Carson Wentz has to play, I think he can lead them to a win in a low-scoring game. Also, the Texans have nothing to play for. They’ve already clinched the AFC South and they’re pretty much locked into the third or fourth-seed in the AFC, and now, they have to play on the road, on a short week in a game where it’s going to be 34 degrees at kickoff against a desperate Chiefs team that will be doing anything they can to keep the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The pick: Chiefs 23-20 over Texans
Pittsburgh (10-4) at Baltimore (9-5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
This game is the second part of a Saturday doubleheader this week, which means that yup, Saturday football is back! On a normal Saturday during the NFL season, I generally spend my entire day telling my 4-year-old to stop stacking toys on her baby brother’s head, but I guess her mom is going to have to be the voice of reason this week, because I have football to watch.
We’ll be getting at least two Saturday games per week over the final three weeks of the regular-season and that starts now. The first game on Saturday will be Texans at Chiefs and that will be followed by this game, which I expect to be a bloodbath (As we all know, there’s nothing like a good bloodbath just four days before Christmas).
This is a huge game for both teams: If the Steelers win, they’ll clinch the AFC North, which will guarantee them at least one home game in the playoffs. If the Ravens win, they’ll clinch a playoff berth and put themselves in a good spot to steal the division title from the Steelers over the final two weeks of the season.
The problem for the Ravens is that their offense always seems to fall completely apart when it faces the Steelers. For most teams, trying to figure out how to stop the Ravens offense is a huge challenge, but Mike Tomlin seems to have cracked the code on how to stop Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens offense is putting up huge numbers this year (and so is Lamar) but none of that matters when they’re facing the Steelers.
Let’s take a look at how the Ravens have done since Lamar became the full-time starting QB in 2019:
- Ravens lowest scoring regular-season game in 2020: 14 points (came against the Steelers)
- Ravens lowest scoring regular-season game in 2023: 10 points (came against the Steelers)
- Ravens lowest scoring regular-season game in 2024: 16 points (came against the Steelers)
I’m not sure about you, but I’m starting to notice a pattern. The Ravens also had their third-lowest scoring game of 2019 against the Steelers, their second-lowest scoring game in 2021 came against the Steelers and their third-lowest scoring game of 2022 came against the Steelers.
Also, the Ravens have gone EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES without hitting the 20-point mark against the Steelers. Mike Tomlin knows what the Ravens are going to do on offense before the Ravens know what they’re going to do. Whenever the Steelers defense goes up against the Ravens offense, it’s like watching the Harlem Globetrotters play the Washington Generals.
Based on everything I just pointed out, you’d think I’d be taking the Steelers here, but I’m rolling with the Ravens and it has everything to do with the schedule. The Steelers just got beat up in a road loss to the Eagles, and now, they have to turn around on a short week for another road game. Also, the NFL didn’t do them any favors, because after they face the Ravens, the Steelers have to face the Chiefs four days later. That’s three games in 11 days, which is brutal.
The Ravens also have to play three games in 11 days, but while the Steelers were getting beat up in Philadelphia, the Ravens were resting their starters in a blowout win over the Giants.
If the Ravens can crack the 20-point mark against the Steelers for the first time in four years, then I think they’ll win. T.J. Watt (ankle) might not play and even if he does, he’ll be banged up.
If the Washington Generals can beat the Harlem Globetrotters, then the Ravens can win this game. OK, now I’m not sure if they ever beat them.
OK, it looks like they did. I’m taking Baltimore.
The pick: Ravens 24-17 over Steelers
Philadelphia (12-2) at Washington (9-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The last time these two teams met came back in Week 11, although Commanders fans probably don’t remember much of that game because I’m guessing they’ve already repressed the memory of it. And if they haven’t, then they’ve been having nightmares for the past five weeks about Saquon Barkley, who plowed his way through Washington’s defense for 146 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-18 win by Philly. My therapist tells me that repressing memories isn’t good for you, but if your only options are repression or having nightmares about Saquon Barkley, then you might want to go with repression.
Not only did the Eagles win that Week 11 game, but they won their next game after that and their next game after that and their next game after…. And you know what, I’m going to get straight to the point: The Eagles haven’t lost a game since September. I’m not sure if you have a calendar in front of you, but September was so long ago that it was a time when people still thought the Saints were good. LOL.
Anyway, let’s rewind to September: The Eagles closed out the month with a loss to the Buccaneers that dropped them to 2-2. The Eagles then went into their Week 5 bye where I’m assuming they made some sort of deal with the devil because THEY HAVEN’T LOST SINCE. The most impressive fact during their 10-game winning streak is that they’ve held nine of their 10 opponents to 20 points or less. On average, the Eagles are surrendering just 15.1 points per game during their winning streak. No one can score on them. No one can even move the ball on them.
There have only been NINE games all season in the NFL where a team was held to under 165 yards and the Eagles have been responsible for THREE of those. In Week 15, the Steelers totaled just 163 yards against the Eagles defense.
If you can’t score against them, maybe you can beat the Eagles in a low-scoring slugfest? Wrong. This team ranks in the top-eight in points scored. They will score on you and you won’t be able to keep up because the defense is too good. I’m starting to think there’s no way to beat this team, which might explain why they’ve won 10 games in a row.
I keep waiting for the winning streak to end, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen.
I thought if someone slowed down Saquon Barkley that the Eagles might lose, but the Steelers did that, and they still got hammered by two touchdowns. I thought the Eagles might implode down the stretch like they did last season, but that’s clearly not going to happen. I thought A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts might fight each other, but they’re now best friends.
The only team that can stop the Eagles is the Eagles.
With a win in this game, the Eagles will clinch the NFC East, so they might as well get the t-shirts ready.
The pick: Eagles 27-20 over Commanders
Minnesota (12-2) at Seattle (8-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
I’m not sure what’s on Mike Macdonald’s Christmas list, but I’m guessing that he’d really like Santa to deliver him a healthy knee for Geno Smith, because if he’s banged up, the Seahawks have no chance of winning the NFC West. I don’t think Santa delivers healthy knees, because that would be weird, but maybe he’ll make an exception in this case, because the Seahawks are in desperation mode.
Of course, even if Smith can play on Sunday, that might not matter, because he doesn’t play defense and that’s Seattle’s biggest issue right now. The Seahawks have had some serious trouble stopping the run and if you watched them play on Sunday night in Week 15, you got a glimpse of how bad things are. The Packers basically just gave the ball to Josh Jacobs on their first two drives and that almost instantly led to two touchdowns.
I’m guessing the Vikings will do something similar, so if Aaron Jones is on your fantasy team, you can go ahead and start celebrating your fantasy championship now, because you’re going to win this week (Unless the other team has Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley, then you’re just cooked).
Even if Geno is banged up, there’s one thing that should have the Seahawks feeling good about this game and it’s the fact that the Vikings have struggled in outdoor games since the calendar hit November. Let’s take a look at their last three:
Week 10: at Jacksonville. Vikings barely win 12-7 in a game where Sam Darnold throws three interceptions.
Week 11: at Tennessee. Vikings win 23-13 against a bad Titans team.
Week 12: at Chicago. Vikings get taken to overtime in a 30-27 win over the Bears.
That’s three wins by an average of six points. I think we know what that means: Vikings by six.
The pick (If Geno Smith plays): Vikings 30-24 over Seahawks
The pick (If Geno Smith doesn’t play): Vikings 30-13 over Seahawks
NFL Week 16 picks: All the rest
Falcons 27-17 over Giants
Lions 31-20 over Bears
Bills 31-17 over Patriots
Bengals 27-20 over Browns
Colts 19-16 over Titans
Rams 23-16 over Jets
Cardinals 24-17 over Panthers
Jaguars 20-16 over Raiders
49ers 26-23 over Dolphins
Buccaneers 31-24 over Cowboys
Packers 34-13 over Saints
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Rams would upset the 49ers on Thursday night and guess what happened? The Rams upset the 49ers on Thursday night. Although my prediction was correct, I have to admit, there was one thing I didn’t see coming and that was De’Vondre Cambell QUITTING on the team in the middle of the game. The 49ers told Campbell to take the field in the third quarter, but Campbell decided to didn’t want to play, so he went to the locker room. Cambell has now been suspended three games by the team, which makes no sense, because they should be sending him a Thank You card that includes a giant Christmas bonus. The 49ers offense choked away any chance at making the playoffs with an ugly performance against the Rams, but NO ONE is talking about that, because we’ve all been distracted by what Campbell’s doing. That’s the true meaning of taking one for the team.
Worst pick: If there’s one thing I’ve learned in all of my years of making picks, it’s that you should never pick the Panthers to win because nothing good ever happens when you do. Well, guess what I did in Week 15? I picked the Panthers to beat the Cowboys and as soon as I made the pick, I knew it was going to be wrong. The Panthers are 1-0 when playing outside the United States this year, but 2-11 when playing inside the United States. What that means is that if this game had been played in Barbados, it would have made sense to pick the Panthers, because they never lose in foreign countries, but this game wasn’t played in Barbados, it was played in Charlotte, which is basically the opposite of Barbados. I’m never picking the Panthers to win again.
Finally, if you’re still reading, you might be wondering which teams I’ve done well picking this year and here’s the answer:
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Chiefs (12-2), Raiders (12-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (12 straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (6-8), Ravens (6-8), Steelers (6-8)
Longest losing streak: Bills (Two straight incorrect picks)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Finally, happy holidays everyone, and don’t forget, if you need a last minute gift idea, just get everyone in your family a DVD copy of “Fast Five.” They’ll love it and my royalty check will go way up next month, so everyone wins.
And remember, next week’s picks will be coming out on Christmas Eve (Tuesday, Dec. 24)! So don’t forget to keep your eye out for those.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 15: 12-4
SU overall: 144-80
Against the spread in Week 15: 10-6
ATS overall: 114-106-4
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably in the middle of a Hallmark Christmas movie marathon.
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