We went 2-3 on our top picks in Week 15, and 8-8 overall with a 13-3 straight-up record. What did we miss on? The Washington Commanders blew a double-digit lead to the New Orleans Saints, the Pittsburgh Steelers were dominated by the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions were upset by the Buffalo Bills. I don’t care if that final score was 48-42, it felt like Josh Allen’s team controlled the entire matchup. Now, the Lions are dealing with even more injuries. Should we be worried about them? That’s what I wrote about this week.
In Week 16, multiple new quarterbacks have been elevated to starters. Can Michael Penix Jr. take the Atlanta Falcons to the postseason? Will Mason Rudolph take the Tennessee Titans out of contention for the No. 1 overall pick? How about Dorian Thompson-Robinson? Can he show some of that potential he flashed in the preseason as a rookie?
Here’s what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top-five picks ATS record: 32-37-1
Overall ATS record: 100-121-3
Straight up record: 145-79
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)
I do believe Patrick Mahomes is going to play despite his ankle injury, but how spry does he feel? The Chiefs should have defeated the Cleveland Browns by much more than they did last week. Maybe the same can be said about the Texans vs. the Miami Dolphins, but if you’re giving me the hook at 3.5 in Arrowhead, I’ll take it. The Texans are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs. teams currently above .500, while the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. I do believe Kansas City could be on upset alert as well.
The pick: Texans +3.5
Projected score: Texans 21-20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Browns are making another quarterback change, benching Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR has thrown one touchdown compared to four interceptions in three career starts. This is a move lamented by those taking part in fantasy football playoffs. Do you start Jerry Jeudy now? What about David Njoku?
As for the Bengals, they are coming off a very weird, 37-27 win against the Titans. It was the first game in NFL history to feature 10 combined turnovers and 26 penalties, and Joe Burrow was seen on the bench being upset while holding a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter. Most people would be puzzled by that, but it just shows you the competitive nature of one of the best quarterbacks in the world. He’s embarrassed by the season the Bengals have had, and didn’t have the best performance Sunday despite the victory.
The Bengals are still in the playoff picture, but obviously need to win out. Cincy has scored 31 points in seven games this season, while Cleveland has done it just once. I’ll take the Bengals to simply out-score the Browns at home, while Burrow takes out some of his frustration.
The pick: Bengals -7.5
Projected score: Bengals 35-21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Congrats to Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams for their epic performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It was nice to see those two in rhythm again. However, this Week 16 matchup vs. Los Angeles is much more important for the Rams in the NFC West — even if it’s going to be cold.
Is this Rams team peaking at the right time? Don’t forget they outscored the Bills a couple weeks ago, then found a way to win a low-scoring wet affair on a short week against the rival San Francisco 49ers. Now, they had some extra rest, and zero players missed practice on Wednesday due to injury. I’m not expecting this to be a blowout by any means, but Sean McVay is an incredible 24-10-1 ATS as a head coach in the month of December.
The pick: Rams -3
Projected score: Rams 23-17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
It’s a massive number, but I haven’t been very scared of massive numbers this year. The first time I got scared of a big number was last week with the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants. It was a mistake believing New York could cover 17 points at home vs. Lamar Jackson. Can Buffalo cover 14 points at home?
Ever since getting engaged to Hailee Steinfeld (three games), Allen has thrown seven touchdowns, rushed for six touchdowns and caught a touchdown. Allen also hasn’t turned the ball over, and his offense is averaging 41.6 points and 342.3 total yards per game. The Bills have scored 30 points in eight straight games, which is tied for the longest single-season streak in NFL history, and they are the first team to ever score five touchdowns with zero turnovers committed in three straight games. “Red-hot” would be an understatement.
The Patriots on the other hand have lost four straight games, and half of those losses came by at least 13 points. Those losses came against the Arizona Cardinals and Dolphins, so imagine what the Bills could potentially do.
The pick: Bills -14
Projected score: Bills 33-17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
This would be a fantastic matchup if everyone was healthy. Unfortunately, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith suffered a knee injury vs. the Green Bay Packers last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith played this week, but the bottom line is Seattle is either starting Sam Howell or a not-100% Smith under center — against s defense which has registered 28 takeaways this season. Only the Steelers have more.
This will be the 10th consecutive game for the Seahawks as an underdog. It’s actually the longest streak in a season by any team with a winning record. Still, you could argue it’s warranted. Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Seahawks were blown out by the Packers, lost to the Rams in overtime, got blown out by the Bills and 49ers, and even lost to the lowly Giants at home this year.
The pick: Vikings -3
Projected score: Vikings 24-20
Other Week 16 picks
- Broncos (+2.5) 26-23 over Chargers
- Ravens (-6.5) 27-20 over Steelers
- Falcons 24-17 over Giants (+8.5)
- Cardinals (-4.5) 25-20 over Panthers
- Lions 23-20 over Bears (+6.5)
- Colts (-3.5) 24-20 over Titans
- Eagles 28-27 over Commanders (+3.5)
- Jaguars (+1) 26-24 over Raiders
- Dolphins (-1) 23-21 over 49ers
- Buccaneers (-4) 27-21 over Cowboys
- Packers (-14.5) 30-14 over Saints
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