Bah humbug. I was hoping to roll into the upcoming Christmas late on a more positive note, but Week 16 wasn’t particularly kind to us, going 1-3-1 ATS with my five locks of the week and just 7-8-1 ATS on the slate overall. That’s as close to a lump of coal as I want to get this holiday season, and we’ll look to turn the tide to a more lucrative trajectory over what is going to be a jam-packed week of NFL action.
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas. Now let’s win some bets.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 34-38-2
ATS: 115-120-5
ML: 156-84
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, fubo)
It’s a shame that this is a dud of a matchup. At the start of the season, this was circled as possibly one of the top head-to-heads of the entire year and possibly an NFC Championship preview. However, the Niners have been run over by a reindeer and have been dealing with injuries wire-to-wire, which now has them mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Lions should have no problem getting up for this game as they need to win out to secure the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the conference, so we’re expecting an all-out effort here. Detroit is a stellar 6-1 ATS on the road this season, which includes a 5-1 ATS record as a road favorite. Pair those trends with San Francisco’s pedestrian 4-4 ATS record at home, and this should be pretty lopsided.
Projected score: Lions 30, 49ers 20
The pick: Lions -3.5
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The big question for this game will be the status of Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who left Sunday’s loss to Washington due to a concussion. As I write this, his status is a complete unknown, so take this pick with a grain of salt. That said, I do think Dallas keeps this game close even with Hurts. Sure, the Cowboys have nothing to play for after being eliminated from the playoffs, but Mike McCarthy is still coaching for his life, and Dallas did put together a respectable effort in the win over Tampa Bay on Sunday night. This season, the Cowboys are also 4-3 ATS on the road, so they are up for the task of keeping things tight with Philly, who is a sneaky bad bet at Lincoln Financial Field. This season, the Eagles are 2-4 ATS at home. I expect the Eagles to find a way to win here, but it’ll be closer than the double-digit spread suggests.
Projected score: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
The pick: Cowboys +11
The Bucs lost their grip on first place in the NFC South after falling to the Cowboys on Sunday and the Falcons taking down the Giants. That said, they do have an opportunity to jump back up if things fall their way in Week 17, which includes taking care of business against the Panthers. Sure, Carolina has played better as of late, and Bryce Young is rounding into a player, but Tampa Bay is still the superior team. This should be a game where the Buccaneers lean on their backs, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. This season, the Panthers are giving up a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry, and it’s gotten worse as the year has gone on. In the three games coming into Sunday’s contest, Carolina is surrendering 6.3 yards per carry. The Panthers are also 2-4 ATS this season on the road.
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Buccaneers -7.5
- Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
New England showed promise for a minute by jumping ahead on Buffalo but came back down to earth. This is a football team that struggles mightily against the run and is going through growing pains (to put it mildly) at the head coaching position. This feels like a matchup where Jim Harbaugh can spin Jerod Mayo in circles and run it down New England’s throats. The Patriots are surrendering 159.7 yards rushing per game on a 5.1 yards per carry clip over the last three weeks, which ranks in the bottom third in the league. While L.A. is not the most efficient ground-and-pound team, they aren’t afraid to lean on it either. The Chargers are also 3-1 ATS this season as a road favorite, which doesn’t bode well for a Patriots club that is 2-3-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium.
Projected score: Chargers 27, Patriots 21
The pick: Chargers -5
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Colts are still alive in the wild-card race in the AFC, but I don’t trust them as a true playoff team. Despite that, I trust them wholeheartedly in this spot against the lowly Giants. At 2-13 and currently in possession of the No. 1 overall pick at the 2025 NFL Draft, I’m not sure that the motivation is for New York outside of Brian Daboll and the rest of the brass trying to save their jobs (which might already be decided). I have major questions about Anthony Richardson’s ability to push the offense down the field via the pass, but they may not need him to do that here. As we saw last week, the Colts can move just fine on the ground and have another ideal matchup against a Giants team that is giving up 142.6 rushing yards per game this season (second-worst in the NFL). Meanwhile, New York is 2-6 ATS at MetLife Stadium this year.
Projected score: Colts 27, Giants 16
The pick: Colts -7.5
Rest of the bunch
Chiefs at Steelers (Wednesday)
Projected score: Steelers 23, Chiefs 21
The pick: Steelers +2.5
Ravens at Texans (Wednesday)
Projected score: Ravens 28, Texans 20
The pick: Ravens -4
Seahawks at Bears (Thursday)
Projected score: Seahawks 24, Bears 20
The pick: Seahawks -3.5
Broncos at Bengals (Saturday)
Projected score: Bengals 30, Broncos 24
The pick: Bengals -3
Cardinals at Rams (Saturday)
Projected score: Rams 24, Cardinals 21
The pick: Cardinals +5.5
Jets at Bills
Projected score: Bills 33, Jets 20
The pick: Bills -10
Raiders at Saints
Projected score: Saints 20, Raiders 17
The pick: Saints -2.5
Titans at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Titans 17
The pick: Jaguars -1
Dolphins at Browns
Projected score: Dolphins 24, Browns 16
The pick: Dolphins -6
Packers at Vikings
Projected score: Packers 27. Vikings 24
The pick: Packers +1.5
Falcons at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 30, Falcons 23
The pick: Commanders -5
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