Guys, I’m not sure how it happened, but we’ve done it: The final week of the NFL season is here.
After watching 17 weeks of football, we’re now heading into Week 18, and I have to say, it’s been a great year, well, except for Giants fans. Not only did they have to watch their team choke away the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but they also might have to watch Saquon Barkley streamroll his way to the NFL single-season rushing record.
Giants owner John Mara might not ever sleep again if the Barkley gets the rushing record against his team.
So will Barkley break the record? That’s one of the many questions I’ll be attempting to answer this week, so let’s get to the picks.
Oh, and just to warn you, if I miss every pick this week, it’s because the final week of the season is always the most difficult week to predict and that’s mainly because I have no idea whether teams will be benching their starters, I have no idea if bad teams will have mentally checked out and I have no idea why the Dolphins always lose in cold weather.
I think what I’m trying to say here is that picking games in Week 17 is basically a drunken crapshoot, except I’m not drunk right now, but I might have to buy a bottle of tequila to make it through these picks.
NFL Week 18 picks
Cleveland (3-13) at Baltimore (11-5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Someone in the NFL scheduling department definitely hates the Browns, because that’s the only way to explain why they’d put the Browns in a nationally televised game where they’re probably going to get embarrassed. The Browns are averaging 5.3 points per game over the past three weeks, and now, they have to play a Ravens team that’s averaging 30.2 points per game, which makes them the third-highest scoring team in the NFL.
The Ravens scored more points (17) in the first TWO QUARTERS of their last game than the Browns have scored in their past three games combined (16).
With Jameis Winston at quarterback, the Browns were actually fun to watch, but then they benched him, because Cleveland apparently believes that keeping your best quarterback on the bench is how you win in the NFL.
There’s a reason that Baltimore is favored by 17.5 points in this game: The Ravens will clinch the AFC North with a win and the Browns have nothing to play for. This is the easiest pick of Week 18 and possibly the easiest pick of the year.
The pick: Ravens 41-10 over Browns
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Did I say that someone in the NFL scheduling department definitely hates the Browns? Because what I meant is that someone in the NFL scheduling department hates every team in the state of Ohio. The Bengals were flexed into this game, which I’m only pointing out because it will make them the FIRST TEAM in NFL history to be forced to play five ROAD prime time games in a single season.
Between that and that fact that the Bengals need three things to happen to get into the playoffs, they certainly have the odds stacked against them this week, but if there’s anyone who can defy those odds, it’s Joe Burrow. The Bengals quarterback should change his name to Joe Brady, because he’s playing like a combination of Joe Montana and Tom Brady. Actually, he shouldn’t change his name to Joe Brady because that would be too confusing. There’s already a Joe Brady in the NFL and he’s the offensive coordinator for the Bills (And he actually coached Burrow at LSU in 2019).
Burrow keeping his name actually makes sense because he makes opposing defenses want to burrow into a hole when they’re playing him. The Bengals quarterback is currently on one of the hottest runs of any QB in NFL history. Since Nov. 1, the Bengals have played eight games and he’s averaged 331 passing yards and 3.4 touchdown passes per game.
If Burrow throws for 359 yards against the Steelers, he could become just the 10th quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards in a single season. I think Burrow will get there and that’s mostly because I’m not sure the Steelers are going to play all of their starters. Let’s see what Mike Tomlin has to say about that.
I’m not buying it, Mike. You haven’t played since Dec. 25, which means you’ve had nearly a full week to think about your game plan. There’s no way he hasn’t pondered benching his players, which tells me he has pondered it, which tells me he’s going to limit the playing time for any key player (like T.J. Watt) who’s banged up.
Here’s why I think the Steelers will keep several key players out: If the Ravens win, this game loses a lot of luster for the Steelers. They won’t be able to win the AFC North, but a win over the Bengals would clinch the five-seed and a date with the Houston Texans. On the other hand, a loss to the Bengals would mean a likely wild-card matchup with Ravens.
Honestly, I don’t think Tomlin cares who he has to play in the first-round of the playoffs. If the Steelers are healthy, they can beat Houston or Baltimore — and Tomlin knows that — which is why I won’t be surprised if he gives several key players some rest against the Bengals. But I have no idea if that’s going to happen. I told you making picks this week is impossible.
If the Bengals win, they’ll need the Dolphins and Broncos to both lose if they want to make the playoffs. So will that happen? You’ll have to keep reading.
The pick: Bengals 34-27 over Steelers
New Orleans (5-11) at Tampa Bay (9-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Every year, there seems to be least one huge upset in Week 18, but it won’t be coming in this game. With a win in this game, the Buccaneers will clinch the NFC South, but if they lose, then the Falcons can sneak in and win the division with a win over the Panthers.
Since their Week 12 bye, the Saints have played five games and they’ve averaged 11.4 points per game and that is NOT going to be enough to beat Tampa Bay. The last time these two teams played back in Week 6, the Buccaneers scored 51 points and they might hit that total again on Sunday. The only silver lining in this game for the Saints is that the Falcons are their biggest rival and Atlanta will be eliminated from playoff contention if the Saints lose. Basically, the Saints will be able to say that they eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs.
I can already see the t-shirts now: “Saints 2024: We eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs, which almost feels as good as winning the Super Bowl.”
The pick: Buccaneers 34-13 over Saints
N.Y. Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia (13-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
There’s no team that hates its fan base more than the New York Giants. After sitting through 13 losses this year, the light at the end of the tunnel for Giants fans was the fact that their team was going to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. All the Giants had to do to land the top pick was do what they’ve been doing all season, and that’s losing, but they couldn’t even do that right.
The Giants choked away the top pick by beating the Colts, and now, to add insult to injury, Saquon Barkley might set the NFL single-season rushing record against them, but there’s no guarantee that’s going to happen.
Nick Sirianni definitely has an interesting dilemma in this game: Do you let Saquon go for the record or keep him on the bench?
The Eagles have absolutely nothing to play for, so it would make a lot of sense for Philly to rest its starters, but the rushing record is one of the most hallowed marks in NFL history. The problem is that if you let Saquon play, you also have to play every starter on your offensive line, because you can’t throw Barkley out there behind a bunch of backups. And if you play all of those starters and someone gets injured, Sirianni might get run out of town.
Barkley needs 101 yards to set the record and if I were coaching the Eagles, I’d give him a crack at it. That being said, I’m taking the Giants here. They’ve already blown a shot at the top pick, so in the most Giants move ever, they’re going to win another game and fall further down the draft order.
The pick: Giants 27-23 over Eagles.
Miami (8-8) at N.Y. Jets (4-12)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff race and if they want to make the postseason, they need two things to happen: They have to beat the Jets and then the Broncos have to lose to the Chiefs.
It’s fitting that the Dolphins are facing Aaron Rodgers, because they might want to go full Rodgers and lock themselves in a dark room before this game so they can face their biggest inner-fear. As we all know, the Dolphins’ biggest fear is playing in any game where the weather is even remotely cold. The Dolphins have lost 12 STRAIGHT GAMES when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or below, and let me just say, when you can’t win in cold weather, playing in the northeast in early January is the last possible thing you want to be doing.
The Dolphins caught a break in Week 17 when the kickoff temperature was 54 degrees for their game in Cleveland. However, there will be no break this week. The kickoff temperature is expected to be around 35. Also, there’s a chance that Tua Tagovailoa might not play and even if he does, he’s been dealing with a bad hip.
This could be Aaron Rodgers’ final game with the Jets and I’m going to say he goes out with a bang by eliminating the Dolphins from the playoffs.
The pick: Jets 20-17 over Dolphins
Kansas City (15-1) at Denver (9-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
If my earlier predictions come true — and let’s assume they will since I’ve gone 61-18 with my picks over the past four weeks — that means the final AFC playoff spot will come down to this: If the Chiefs win, then the Bengals will make the playoffs, but if the Broncos win, then Denver will make the playoffs.
The Broncos are a 9.5-point favorite in this game and that’s because the Chiefs are expected to be resting their starters. I think KC Wolf might even be getting the day off, and let’s be honest, he needs it.
With the Chiefs sitting all their starters, the Broncos might feel like a lock in this game, but I don’t think it’s as automatic as everyone thinks. For one, the Chiefs have benched their starters in the final week of the season a total of four times since Andy Reid became coach in 2013 and they’ve gone 2-2 in those games (and 3-1 against the spread).
2013: Chargers 27-24 in OT over Chiefs (Chiefs were 14.5-point underdogs)
2017: Chiefs 27-24 over Broncos (Chiefs were 3-point underdogs)
2020: Chargers 38-21 over Chiefs (Chiefs were 7-point underdogs)
2023: Chiefs 13-12 over Chargers (Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs)
The 2013 game is the one that’s the most similar to what we’ll see this week: The Chargers needed a win to make the playoffs and the Chiefs had nothing to play for, but they still managed to take the game to overtime.
What this tells you is that the Chiefs aren’t just going to roll over and surrender even though most of their starters will be on the bench. Also, the Chiefs have one of the best backup QB situations in the NFL right now with Carson Wentz. He actually started the Rams’ season finale last year and he led Los Angeles to a win over the 49ers in a game where the Rams were a 4-point underdog. Wentz is going to want to prove that he can still play in the NFL, so the Chiefs offense might look a little better than what we’re all expecting.
There’s going to be a lot of pressure on the Broncos in this game and I’m not sure how well they’re going to handle it.
AM I SELLING YOU ON THE CHIEFS YET??
I feel like this game is going to be tight, and although I do think the Chiefs could pull off the upset, I’m going to take the team that has its season on the line.
The pick: Broncos 27-24 over Chiefs
Minnesota (14-2) at Detroit (14-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
This will be the final game of the 2024 regular-season and the NFL is definitely saving its best for last. This game will mark the first time in 31 years that the top seed in a conference will be decided in the final week of the season in a winner-take-all battle. This will also mark the first time in NFL history that two teams with 13 wins or more will face off in a regular-season game.
There will be a lot on the line in this game with the winner taking home the NFC North title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC while the loser will be stuck getting the fifth seed in the NFC. That means the winner will get a bye in the opening round of the playoffs while the loser will be forced to hit the road for the wild-card round.
What’s the difference between getting a one-seed and a five-seed? Glad you asked. There was no fifth-seed in the playoffs until 1978 and since then, they’ve almost never made it to the Super Bowl.
Basically, if you lose this game, you don’t just lose this game, your chances of getting to the Super Bowl also take a major hit, which is not what you want when you’re a team that’s never won the Super Bowl before (In related news, the Vikings and Lions have never won the Super Bowl before).
I feel like this is going to come down to who plays better out of Jared Goff and Sam Darnold. That might seem obvious, but all you have to do is look at each’s team passing defense to realize why the QB battle will probably decide the game. The Lions are surrendering 250.4 yards per game through the air, which is the second-worst number in the NFL. But Vikings fans, don’t laugh, because your team isn’t much better: The Vikings have given up an average of 243.6 yards per game, which is the fifth-worst in the NFL.
So you have the two of the worst passing defenses and they’ll be going up against two quarterbacks who both rank in the top-five for passing yards per game this year (Goff ranks second overall with 274.9 yards per game while Darnold ranks fifth overall with 259.6 yards per game).
These two quarterbacks went a combined 7-17-1 in 2020, and somehow, just four years later, they’re going to be duking it out for the top seed in the NFC.
Darnold has never played in a game of this magnitude, so I’m going to take they guy who’s won multiple big games in his career and that’s Goff.
The pick: Lions 30-23 over Vikings
NFL Week 18 picks: All the rest
Falcons 27-24 over Panthers
Texans 23-20 over Titans
Packers 20-17 over Bears
Commanders 19-16 over Cowboys
Colts 24-17 over Jaguars
Seahawks 27-20 over Rams
Bills 20-16 over Patriots
Chargers 27-17 over Raiders
49ers 27-24 over Cardinals
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Broncos would score exactly 24 points and lose to the Bengals, and guess what happened? The Broncos scored exactly 24 points and lost to the Bengals. Now, did I know that the Bengals were going to win the game on a Joe Burrow touchdown pass in overtime? Of course not. Before Week 17, the Bengals had NEVER scored an offensive touchdown in overtime in their entire existence.
The NFL has been playing overtime games since 1974, and somehow, the Bengals went 50 years without scoring a single offensive touchdown in overtime. That’s like going 50 years without using the letter ‘R’ in a sentence. It doesn’t seem possible.
Worst pick: If you want to know what it’s like to set money on fire, all you had to do was bet on the Titans at any point over the past 17 weeks. Through 16 games, the Titans have gone 2-14 against the spread, which is the worst mark by any team since the NFL expanded to 16 games back in 1978.
If you’ve been betting against the Titans all season, congratulations, you’re a millionaire. Obviously, the only reason I’m bringing this up is because not only did I pick the Titans to cover against the Jaguars, but I also picked them to WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT. The Titans are in full tank mode, they’re not even trying to win games anymore, and yet, I still picked them to win. That’s why I’m not a millionaire, people. Don’t be me.
Finally, if you’re still reading, you might be wondering which teams I’ve done well picking this year and here’s the answer:
Best picks record by team (Straight up): Chiefs (14-2), Raiders (13-3), Broncos (13-3)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (14 straight correct picks)
Best picks record by team (against the spread): Broncos (13-3), Chiefs (12-4), Raiders (12-4)
Worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (8-8), Ravens (8-8), Steelers (8-8), Cardinals (8-8)
Longest losing streak: Jaguars (Two straight incorrect picks)
Worst picks record by team (against the spread): Panthers (5-11), Cardinals (5-10-1)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Finally, if your New Year’s resolution for 2025 is to sign your friends up for random newsletters, you can do that right now by signing them up for our daily NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com. I’m in charge of it and if you want to put it in their inbox every weekday morning, all you have to do is click here and then enter their email address.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 17: 14-2
SU overall: 169-87
Against the spread in Week 17: 9-7
ATS overall: 131-120-5
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably out buying a bottle of tequila so he can keep his new year’s resolution, which is to buy more tequila.
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