We have some absolutely incredible picks for you to fade this week. Here’s the deal: I give my top five ATS picks, and will sound intelligent doing so, but do not be fooled. Make sure you bet the exact opposite of what I say and become a millionaire.
The dogs have ruled this year. Underdogs of six or more points are 11-1-1 against the spread, and 8-5 straight up. That’s the best cover percentage by six-point underdogs through three weeks since the 1970 merger.
Last week, the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills came through for me, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed Bo Nix to look like C.J. Stroud, while the Atlanta Falcons couldn’t pull off the upset vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. Then there’s the New Orleans Saints, who came back to earth in a very embarrassing way.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team.
All NFL odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus.
Top five picks ATS record: 3-11-1
Overall ATS record: 19-27-2
Straight up record: 23-25
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Giants could struggle to contain the Cowboys’ passing attack, as both Adoree’ Jackson and Andru Phillips have been ruled out with calf injuries. If you want to beat the Cowboys, you have to run the ball effectively. Unfortunately, the Giants ground game is below average with Saquon Barkley now an Eagle.
This 5.5 number is just under the magical six-point spread that’s dominated this year, so give me the Cowboys to cover. They are 5-0 ATS on the road vs. the Giants when Dak Prescott starts, while the Giants are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home prime-time games with an average closing spread of +4. Just contain the explosive Malik Nabers and Dallas should be OK.
The pick: Cowboys -5.5
Projected score: Cowboys 27-17
Bonus: SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is on a 22-8 ATS roll on Cowboys games and we can tell you he’s leaning the Over in this prime-time matchup against the Giants. Check out which side he’s taking against the spread at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
How in the world are the Jaguars going to bounce back after what happened in Buffalo on Monday night? The 31-point deficit they faced at halftime was the largest in franchise history. Now the Jags have to go on the road on a short week and play a talented Texans team coming off a loss. Trevor Lawrence has now lost eight straight starts, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. The defense can’t stop anything and the offensive line stinks. Tyson Campbell is on injured reserve, linebacker Foye Oluokun is expected to miss several weeks with a foot injury and Evan Engram is still not practicing. Yikes.
The Texans are 6-0 following their past six losses, and haven’t lost back-to-back games since starting 0-2 last season. Give me Houston.
The pick: Texans -6.5
Projected score: Texans 23-14
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Was this the most exciting week in “Commanders” history? I wouldn’t have blamed fans if they threw a parade, because it appears this long-suffering franchise has found a quarterback in Jayden Daniels. The Commanders scored a statement 38-33 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals Monday night, and it was Daniels’ coming-out party. He completed 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, while also leading Washington with 39 rushing yards and another score on 12 carries.
The Commanders have scored points on every drive excluding kneel downs in each of the last two games. That’s something Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes have combined to do just twice. Now, we get a Kliff Kingsbury revenge game in Week 4?
The Cardinals are a feisty team, but it seemingly depends on the week. They had ample opportunity to come back against the Detroit Lions on Sunday, but the offense scored just two field goals over the final three quarters. Washington can be a feisty team too, and I love getting the hook at 3.5 — which could come in handy.
The pick: Commanders +3.5
Projected score: Commanders 30-26
Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
This is a gross game I don’t expect you to put money on. The Titans aren’t the worst team in the NFL like Pete Prisco says. They have greatly disappointed their fans, yes. But Brian Callahan and Co. know they need to get in gear, and the Tua-less Dolphins provide an opportunity to do so. Miami is now 1-5 without Tua Tagovailoa, and the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that has not led with time on the clock this season. They have also failed to cover the spread in six straight games. Now they are favorites and we don’t even know who the quarterback is?
It will either be Tim Boyle, the injured Skylar Thompson or the recently-added Tyler Huntley under center, so give me the Titans.
The pick: Titans +1
Projected score: Titans 17-10
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Seahawks are 3-0, but their schedule has been the easiest in the NFL. They got the Denver Broncos and a quarterback playing in his first-ever NFL game in Week 1, then needed overtime to beat the New England Patriots in Week 2 and abused Skylar Thompson and the Tua-less Dolphins last Sunday. Now they have to travel to take on an NFC contender in prime time that will be wearing new sexy black uniforms.
Mike MacDonald has immediately boosted this Seahawks defense, as they rank first in defending the pass, second in total defense and fourth in third-down percentage. Remember, Seattle had the worst defense in the NFL over the past three seasons. But, this Lions offense provides a different kind of test compared to the Patriots or a backup/rookie quarterback. I’m also expecting a big game from Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson, who leads the NFL in pressures (25), sacks (6.5) and QB hits (11) this year.
I would like to see the first official injury report from each team before locking this pick in, but I don’t get that benefit.
The pick: Lions -3.5
Projected score: Lions 24-20
Other Week 4 picks
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