Expect the unexpected in the National Football League.
The Atlanta Falcons are the living embodiment of this premise. They improved to 3-2 in 2024 with a 36-30 overtime home win on “Thursday Night Football” despite their win probability dropping as low as 5%, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. When quarterback Kirk Cousins, who erupted for 509 yards passing and four touchdowns on 42 of 58 passing, threw his only interception of the night to Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David with 1:52 left to play while trailing 30-27, this game looked to be over.
Now, the Falcons have three wins — against the Eagles, Saints and Buccaneers — in which they had a combined .013% chance to win, per ESPN’s Ben Solak. That’s unfathomable.
So given Thursday’s insane ending, what other unforeseen events could the rest of Week 5’s NFL action have in store? Let’s take a look.
Andy Dalton gets revenge on a former team in the Bears for first victory against Chicago
Winning with the defense the Carolina Panthers have is going to be difficult on a week-to-week basis: they are allowing an NFL-high 32.3 points per game. However, veteran mentor born again as an NFL starting quarterback Andy Dalton accomplished that feat in Week 3 when yours truly said he would. Dalton became the first quarterback to throw for 300 or more yards (319) and three or more touchdowns (three) in a game this NFL season in Carolina’s 36-22 road win at the Raiders in Week 3.
For the second consecutive week, he will start against a former team in the Chicago Bears after facing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. Through two starts, Dalton is averaging a 66.2% completion percentage and 269.5 passing yards per game (fifth in the NFL) with a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (tied for fifth in the NFL). His presence is why wide receiver Diontae Johnson has consecutive games with seven-plus catches, 80-plus yards receiving and a touchdown for the first time in his career. Dalton is 0-2 against the Bears in his career, but he and Carolina will beat Chicago and their ball-hawking defense (eight takeaways, tied for the third-most in the NFL).
Josh Allen keeps longest interception-free streak of career going vs. Texans
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a high-volume performer in every sense of the label. His 230 career touchdowns in his first seven seasons are the second-most since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger behind only Patrick Mahomes’ 231. However, Allen’s 78 career interceptions are the most in the league since he was drafted seventh overall by the Bills in 2018.
Stunningly, he has yet to throw an interception this season in Buffalo’s 3-1 start and has a six-game streak without an interception, including the postseason. That’s the longest such streak of Allen’s career. His Week 5 matchup in Houston against his former top target in wide receiver Stefon Diggs and the Houston Texans could very well come down to the wire, which could lead Allen to force a throw for a pick. No matter the circumstance on Sunday, Allen will keep that interception-free streak alive heading into Week 6.
Jaguars knock off Colts for first win of 2024
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the last winless team standing this season at 0-4. One of the many reasons why is their defense can’t generate takeaways: their one takeaway stands as the fewest in the NFL, and it’s tied for the fewest by the Jaguars through their first four games in team history along with the ill-fated Urban Meyer-coached season of 2021.
However, the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts could be a perfect matchup for them to finally win a game. The Colts have lost eight consecutive games in Jacksonville. They allow their opponents to hang around: all four games have been decided by six points or less this season. Indianapolis quarterback Anthony Richardson can be erratic: he ranks last in the league in completion percentage (50.6%), but he is first in yards per dropback (8.1) and yards per completion (16.8). Richardson is also injury prone: he has left a game at least once in four of his eight starts in his NFL career. That includes getting injured in the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
Jaguars two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Joshua Hines-Allen also lives to torment the Colts. His 8.0 sacks against Indy are tied for the fifth-most against a single opponent since 2021. Allen has three career games against the Colts with multiple sacks and no more than one such game against every other NFL opponent. Jacksonville gets in the win column on Sunday.
Raiders upset Broncos in Denver without All-Pro WR Davante Adams
The Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) hit the road as three-point underdogs, according to SportsLine consensus odds, against 2-2 Denver surrounded with drama from All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams reportedly demanding a trade.
Three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday with an ankle injury. Guess what? None of that is going to matter when Minshew Mania strikes at Mile High with Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew leading the way to victory. Minshew is averaging a career-high 70.7% completion percentage this season, the sixth-highest in the NFL. Literally all Minshew has to do is be himself, and that should be enough to outduel Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix threw for 60 yards and a touchdown on 12 of 25 passing a rain-soaked 10-9 win at the New York Jets that also required the typically reliable Greg Zuerlein missing a go-ahead field goal for New York with under a minute remaining. He became the first player since at least 1991 with negative pass yards in any half with at least five or more completions last week. Entering Week 5, Las Vegas has the fifth-best scoring defense in the league (18.5) since head coach Antonio Pierce assumed the role as the interim head coach last season in Week 9. Pierce’s defense plus Minshew are enough for an upset victory.
Struggling Saints hand Super Bowl champion Chiefs first loss of 2024
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are begging to lose a game. They are only the third team in NFL history to start 4-0 with a comeback of at least seven points in all four games. The New Orleans Saints are 2-2 after consecutive losses in Weeks 3 and 4 by a combined five points.
Both defeats came with just over a minute left (Eagles running back Saquon Barkley scored the game-winning touchdown with 1:01 left) or seconds remaining (Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo made a 58-yard, game-winning field goal with two seconds left). They could easily be 4-0 with a few different bounces. New Orleans has a defense that ranks third in the NFL in interceptions (six) and tied for 10th in sacks (12.0).
Saints five-time Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara also leads or co-leads NFL in touches (97), scrimmage yards (536) and scrimmage touchdowns (6) this season, which heavily contributes to New Orleans’ 32:39 average time of possession, the fourth-highest in the league this season. The Saints will put the Chiefs in a hole early, and this week, Patrick Mahomes is unable to lead them back with fewer possessions and down another body in his receiving core in Rashee Rice.
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