NFL Week 5 early odds: Jayden Daniels, Commanders surge as favorites over Browns; Vikings favored over Jets

The first month of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Through these first four weeks, we’ve seen some surprising results throughout the league. For instance, who had the Washington Commanders, Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings all sitting atop their respective divisions after the opening month? Or how about the Cincinnati Bengals landing at the bottom of the AFC North at 1-3? Needless to say, just when you think you have the NFL figured out, it throws a nasty curveball in our direction. 

So, what does Week 5 have on deck? Below, we will take our first look at the fourth week of the regular season and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.

Note: Detroit, Tennessee, Philadelphia and Los Angeles (Chargers) are on bye in Week 5.

Week 5 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Notable movement, trends

Buccaneers at Falcons (Thursday)

This spread opened at Falcons -3, but that has since come off the full field goal advantage for Atlanta and now sits at Falcons -2.5. This is a pivotal NFC South matchup with the Buccaneers currently sitting atop the division at 3-1 and the Falcons sitting at 2-2. Tampa Bay is not only 3-1 straight-up on the season, but Baker Mayfield and Co. are 3-1 against the spread, making them one of the top teams to back through the first month of the season. They also covered their lone road games of the season, while Atlanta is 0-3 ATS at home. 

Jets at Vikings

Minnesota’s stellar start to the season has turned this line on its head. At the open, the Jets were sitting as a 3.5-point road favorite. That has since shifted to Vikings -2.5. Minnesota is 4-0 on the season, atop the NFC North, and 4-0 ATS. As for the Jets, they mustered just nine points in a losing effort to the Broncos on Sunday at a damp MetLife Stadium to drop to 2-2 on the year. The Jets are 1-1 ATS on the road this season, and, for what it’s worth, Aaron Rodgers is 17-11-1 straight-up against the Vikings in his career. 

Panthers at Bears

The Andy Dalton effect is playing a part in this line change between the Panthers and Bears. At the open, Chicago was situated as a 5.5-point home favorite. However, that has since moved down to Chicago -3.5, despite a win against the Rams and Carolina falling to the Bengals in Week 4. This is likely due to the increased confidence in the Panthers offense with Dalton under center. Still, the Bears are 2-0 ATS at home this season, while the Panthers are 1-1 ATS on the road. 

Colts at Jaguars

The Jaguars were a one-point favorite in this AFC South matchup, but that has since increased to Jaguars -2.5. While Jacksonville will likely be throwing the kitchen sink at this game after an 0-4 start and the seats across the organization heating up, the change in this line is likely due to the injuries Indy suffered in its win over Pittsburgh. Quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered a hip injury that forced him out of Sunday’s matchup while running back Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Indy is 3-1 ATS this season, but all three of those covers have come at home. 

Bills at Texans

After the Texans opened as a slim one-point favorite at home against the Bills, it’s Buffalo that is now laying the point in this highly anticipated AFC matchup. Josh Allen’s club is coming off a prime-time loss to the Ravens on Sunday night, while the Texans rallied late to beat the Jaguars at home, thanks to a late touchdown throw from C.J. Stroud to Dare Ogunbowale. While they were able to come away with the win, the Texans didn’t cover, and that’s been a bit of an early theme for them this season. Houston is 0-3-1 ATS this season, including 0-2 ATS at home. 

Dolphins at Patriots

The Dolphins opened as a 3.5-point favorite, and that has since shrunk down to Dolphins -1, given their uncertainty at quarterback. Of course, this line could change even more depending on what happens with the club’s matchup on Monday night. The Patriots are 1-2-1 ATS this season, while the Dolphins are 0-3 entering Monday’s matchup. While the questions for Miami’s offense have brought this spread down, it has decimated the total. At the open, this game sat at a total of 45. Now, it’s 36.5. The Under is 2-2 in Patriots games this season and 3-0 for the Dolphins entering Week 4. 

Ravens at Bengals

The Bengals initially opened as a small 1.5-point favorite at home, but they are no longer laying points in this divisional matchup. Instead, it’s the Ravens who are 2.5-point favorites in Week 5 following an impressive showing against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Both of these clubs are 2-2 ATS on the season. The Over 48.5 could be an interesting look, as the Over is a combined 6-2 between these teams this season. 

Browns at Commanders

Jayden Daniels has been the surprise story so far of the 2024 season. The No. 2 overall pick has looked like everything the Washington Commanders could have hoped for when they drafted him last spring, and now he’s getting respect from the oddsmakers. After the Browns opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, the line has since swung in favor of the Commanders, who are now laying 3.5 points. Washington is 3-1 ATS on the season, including a cover at Northwest Stadium. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 1-3 ATS after the first month of the year. 

Raiders at Broncos

The Broncos are laying two points as a home favorite over the Raiders. This comes after a road win over the Jets on Sunday, where the defense was able to stifle Aaron Rodgers’ club. Meanwhile, the Raiders outlasted the Browns with a victory in Las Vegas to move to 2-2 on the season. Denver is a surprising 3-1 ATS so far this season, but none of those covers have come at Mile High. As for the Raiders, they are 1-1 ATS on the road so far this year. 

Cardinals at 49ers

The Arizona Cardinals have been spunky so far this season despite sitting at 1-3. That, coupled with the Niners dealing with a fair share of injuries, has seen this spread dip a bit, but it is still a sizable one in favor of San Francisco. The line opened at Niners -9.5 and now sits at Niners -7.5. The 49ers are 2-2 ATS on the season, and both of those covers have come at Levi’s Stadium. Meanwhile, Arizona is 1-0 ATS on the road this season. 

Early pick: The SportsLine Projection Model has the 49ers covering as one of its strongest early picks on the Week 5 slate, giving it more than a 60% chance of happening. See all the model’s early Week 5 spread picks and score projections at SportsLine.

Giants at Seahawks

This line could certainly change, considering Seattle still has its Week 4 matchup to play on Monday night. That said, the Seahawks opened as a field goal favorite over the Giants, and that has only increased to Seattle -6. Mike Macdonald’s team is undefeated on the season entering Week 4. but they haven’t been as automatic for bettors as they are 1-1-1 ATS on the season. As for the Giants, they are 2-2 ATS and will have a sizable rest advantage over the Seahawks as they played last Thursday, and Seattle suiting up on Monday. 

Packers at Rams

Now that Jordan Love is back in the fold, we are seeing the line for Green Bay get a boost. The Packers opened this matchup as a one-point favorite over the Rams at SoFi Stadium. Now, they are laying 3.5-points in this matchup. It was a shaky return for Love in Week 4 as the Packers fell to the Vikings at Lambeau Field as they got down by a 28-0 deficit. Somehow, they were able to make a game of it and brought the lead down to just two points in the final minute, but couldn’t get over the hump. As for the Rams, they fell to 1-3 on the year after the Bears handed them a loss at Solider Field. Green Bay is 2-2 ATS this season and did cover their lone game on the road in the first month. The Rams are 1-3 ATS. 

Cowboys at Steelers

The line has flipped entirely for this game. At the open, Dallas was laying 1.5 points as a road favorite, but the Steelers have since shifted as the favorite and are giving up 1.5 points. Pittsburgh is coming off its first loss of the season to the Colts on Sunday, while the Cowboys defeated the Giants to move to 2-2. Dallas will have the rest advantage over Pittsburgh after playing on Thursday. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have covered 53.7% of the time when faced with a rest disadvantage. With the rest advantage, the Cowboys are 11-4 ATS (73.3%) under Mike McCarthy. 

Saints at Chiefs (Monday)

The Chiefs are still favored in this matchup against the Saints, but the spread has crossed several key figures. After opening at Chiefs -7.5, the line has since dropped below the touchdown marker and the six-point market to Kansas City -5.5. This comes as the K.C. offense has continued to look disjointed and now will likely be without Rashee Rice, who suffered a significant knee injury against the Chargers on Sunday. As for the Saints, they dropped a late lead to the Falcons to fall to 2-2 on the season. Both of these teams are 3-1 ATS on the season, and New Orleans is 2-0 ATS on the road this season.