Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season, which is always my favorite week because it’s when I finally come to grips with the fact that my Fantasy team sucks. I knew I shouldn’t have taken Christian McCaffrey with the first overall pick.
By the way, if anyone in my league is reading, McCaffrey is officially on the trade block and I will take anything for him. I’m thinking Jayden Daniels for McCaffrey straight up. Everyone wins.
The fifth week of the NFL season also means that we’ll be getting our first game of the year in London, and as we all know, no one knows more about picking London games than me. Since that’s the case, we should obviously start this week’s picks off with the game in London, so Tally-Ho, let’s get to the picks.
NFL Week 5 picks
Minnesota (4-0) vs. N.Y. Jets (2-2) in London
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
The first London game of the season is finally here and it will be kicking off at 9:30 a.m. ET, which is 6:30 a.m. for those of you on the west coast. I only mention that because I lived in California for six years and nothing made me more miserable than waking up for a London game. It got so bad that I had to move and I’m now in the Central time zone, which is easily my second favorite time zone.
By the way, our very own Adam Aizer actually conducted a poll asking which time zone was the best for watching sports, and somehow, the Pacific time zone won.
As someone who has lived in three of those four time zones for at least six years each (Eastern, Central, Pacific), I can tell you based on the process of elimination that the Mountain time zone is the correct answer, so congratulations to the 15% of people who got that right. Maybe the NFL needs to think about moving more teams to Mountain time.
Anyway, this game is being played in London, so I’m going to stop babbling on about time zones that aren’t anywhere near London.
I’m actually excited to watch this game and that’s because it features the best quarterback in the NFL going up against Aaron Rodgers. HAHAHAHA. See what I did there. If I had written that sentence three months ago, I would have been laughed off the internet. Not only does Sam Darnold have the highest QB rating in the NFL through four weeks, but he also leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 (No other QB has more than eight). The reason he’s been so good is because he has a lot of weapons and he knows how to use them all.
The Jets currently have the second-best pass defense in the NFL, but that stat is kind of misleading because they held Bo Nix to 60 yards in Week 4, and holding Bo Nix to 60 yards isn’t as impressive as it sounds (As a matter of fact, three of the top-eight passing defenses have one thing in common: They’ve all played Nix).
I’m not sure if Darnold will outplay Rodgers, but I like his chances. The Jets QB got beat up in Week 4 and he was definitely hurting after getting sacked five times and taking 14 HITS against the Broncos. When you’re 40 years old, two hits can make your body hurt, so I have no idea how Rodgers survived 40 hits. Also, when your entire body hurts, the last thing you want to do is jump on a seven-hour international flight.
The first win of Kevin O’Connell’s coaching career came against Rodgers and I’m guessing that his 25th win is also going to come against Rodgers. If this pick hits, I’ll be celebrating by having tea and crumpets, because that’s the London way. And also because I love tea and crumpets.
The pick: Vikings 27-20 over Jets
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model also has this game as one of its top spread picks of the week, making it a part of the model’s five-leg parlay for Week 5. Check out the entire Week 5 NFL parlay from the model at SportsLine.
Green Bay (2-2) at L.A. Rams (1-3)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
After four weeks of picking Rams games, I’ve come to realize that I’m not good at picking Rams games. The Rams have played four games so far this year and I’m 0-4 picking those games. As bad as my picks have been this year, I’ve still managed to get at least one game right for 31 of the NFL’s 32 teams. The Rams are the ONLY team in the NFL that I’ve whiffed on every week, so I’ve decided to publicly shame myself to get this thing turned around.
In Week 1, the Rams played the Lions and I thought for sure that Matthew Stafford would come up big against his former team, and although that’s exactly what happened, my pick still ended up being wrong. Stafford threw for more than 300 yards and the Rams had the lead with 30 seconds left to play, but they lost in overtime. I hate overtime.
In Week 2, the injury bug started to bite the Rams, but I figured they were still good enough to beat the Cardinals, but I was wrong. Actually, saying I was wrong would be an understatement because the Rams lost 41-10.
In Week 3, I finally gave up on the Rams and picked them to lose to the 49ers, but then they laughed in my face by pulling off the most improbable comeback of the 2024 season: They were trailing by 10 with seven minutes left to play in the fourth quarter and somehow still won.
In Week 4, I jumped right back on the Rams bandwagon and predicted them to beat the Bears, but that one blew up in my face. I’m tired of things blowing up in my face.
The good news for me is that if there’s one Rams game I should be able to get right, it’s this one. If there’s one coach Sean McVay has NOT been able to beat during his time with the Rams, it’s his old buddy Matt LaFleur. These two coaches have faced off four times and not only have LaFleur’s Packers gone 4-0 in those games, but they’ve won by an average of 12.8 point per game.
The Rams and Packers have both struggled to stop the pass this year, so don’t be surprised if this turns into a shootout. So who has the advantage? the Rams are banged up and LaFleur always seems to be one step ahead of McVay and that’s good enough for me to roll with the Packers.
And now that I’ve made my pick I’d like to apologize to everyone in Green Bay in advance for jinxing your team.
The pick: Packers 27-23 over Rams
Baltimore (2-2) at Cincinnati (1-3)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
If I had to rank my three favorite games of Week 5, this one would definitely make the list. Sure, neither team is above .500, but that almost makes the game even better, because there’s more riding on what happens. If the Bengals lose, it could send their season into a tailspin, but if the Ravens lose, they could find themselves in last place in the AFC North after five weeks of action, which is something that exactly zero people predicted before the season started.
Based on what I know about these two teams, this game is going to play out in one of two ways. Either Joe Burrow is going to throw for 675 yards and Cincinnati is going to win OR Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are going to combine to rush for 675 rushing yards and the Ravens are going to win.
This game could turn into a shootout except instead of a gun, the Ravens will be bringing a steamroller to the shootout. Of course, the steamroller in this case is Henry, who will be going up against a Bengals defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the run this year. Through four weeks, the Bengals are surrendering an average of 145.5 rushing yards per game, and now, they have to face the team that leads the NFL in rushing (The Ravens are averaging 220.5 yards on the ground per game, which is absolutely bonkers when you consider that no other team is even averaging 175 yards). The Ravens offense against the Bengals defense is like the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object except the object is actually very movable.
Although the Bengals defense might get steamrolled by the Ravens rushing attack, Burrow might be able to keep them in the game because he’ll be going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Through four weeks, the Ravens have given up an average of 257.5 yards per game through the air, which is the third most in the NFL, and now, they’ll be going up against a Bengals offense that ranks in the top six in passing yards.
So we have a defense that can’t stop the run going up against the best rushing attack. And on the other side, we have a defense that can’t stop the pass going up against one of the best passing attacks.
The Bengals are going to be desperate and they’re going to be at home where Burrow is 3-1 against the Ravens since the start of the 2021 season (Including the playoffs).
The pick: Bengals 27-24 over Ravens
Bonus: SportsLine expert Eric Cohen, who went 12-4 straight up last week, also has this as a three-point game, but is he backing the ‘dog like Breech? Check out all of Cohen’s Week 5 score predictions at SportsLine.
Dallas (2-2) at Pittsburgh (3-1)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
This game might not provide a lot of offensive fireworks, but if Snoop is excited for this game, then I’m excited for this game, so everyone get excited.
I’m not sure what the Steelers’ offensive game plan is going to be this week, but if Arthur Smith is smart, he’ll take all the passing plays out of the playbook and set them on fire because Pittsburgh shouldn’t need those to beat the Cowboys.
Through four weeks, Dallas has been horrible at stopping the run and there’s a good chance that things are only going to be worse this week with the Cowboys missing two of their best defensive players (Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence). The Cowboys have given up the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL, and now that they’re likely going to be facing a mobile quarterback in Justin Fields, that could create even more issues.
Also, now that I’m thinking about it, maybe Smith should save a few of those passing plays. Parsons and Lawrence have combined for four of the Cowboys’ eight sacks this year, which means Dallas might not be able to get much of a pass rush going on Sunday night. The only upside for the Cowboys is that the Steelers’ offensive line is banged up with starting guard James Daniels being the latest to go down (Daniels is out for the season after tearing his Achilles).
It’s been a brutal year for the Steelers on the offensive line.
OK, you know what? I think I’ve now confused myself. I said the Steelers should only run the ball, but then I said that passing might make sense, and now, I’ve talked myself back into the whole “just run the ball” thing. The Steelers offense should be able to move the ball on the ground.
With a banged-up Steelers offense facing a battered Dallas defense, the question becomes how the other side will fare and in that matchup, I think we’ll see T.J. Watt wreck the Cowboys offense.
Every time the Cowboys lose a game, it feels like the temperature of Mike McCarthy’s hot seat goes up 112 degrees, so he might want to call an Uber to get back to Dallas because I don’t think it’s safe to let a seat that hot on an airplane.
The pick: Steelers 19-16 over Cowboys
New Orleans (2-2) at Kansas City (4-0)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
If you have any football playing experience, you might want to stay by your phone this week, because the Kansas City Chiefs might call you. That’s how desperate they are for players right now.
It’s a good thing the Chiefs play on Monday this week because they’re probably going to need that extra day so they have time to get enough players together to actually field a team. If Taylor Swift is at the game on Monday, it might not be to support Travis Kelce — she might actually be playing.
Over the past four weeks, the Chiefs have lost Hollywood Brown to a season-ending injury, they’ve lost Isiah Pacheco to an injury that will likely sideline him until later November and now, they’ve lost Rashee Rice to a serious injury.
If you’re scoring at home, that’s their their biggest free-agent signing, their leading rusher and their leading receiver. I mean, Pacheco hasn’t played since Week 2 and he’s still the team’s leading rusher. Rice didn’t even finish the first quarter in Week 4 and he’s still the team’s leading receiver by 130 yards.
With the Chiefs offense getting hammered by injuries, Kansas City is going to need its defense to come up big this week. And you know what, that might not be a problem because the Chiefs are facing the one quarterback they love to beat up on: Derek Carr.
The Saints QB has a career record of 1-8 when playing in Kansas City and that’s because Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play. The crowd is loud, it’s hard to hear yourself and it’s not easy to make changes at the line of scrimmage.
The Saints offense will be playing its first outdoor game of the season and if you combine that with the fact that they’ll be facing a tough Kansas City defense, I think the Chiefs pull this out in a slugfest.
The pick: Chiefs 20-17 over Saints
Bonus: Jason La Canfora has an early pick he loves in this game, but it’s not on the spread. Check out which Saints-Chiefs best bet the NFL expert is including in his early Week 5 picks article at SportsLine out every Monday.
NFL Week 5 picks: All the rest
Buccaneers 23-20 over Falcons
Panthers 24-16 over Bears
Commanders 34-17 over Browns
Colts 23-16 over Jaguars
Texans 26-23 over Bills
Patriots 20-16 over Dolphins
Broncos 16-13 over Raiders
49ers 30-20 over Cardinals
Seahawks 24-17 over Giants
BYES: Lions, Titans, Eagles, Chargers
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Falcons would beat the Saints 26-23, and GUESS WHAT HAPPENED? The Falcons beat the Saints 26-24, and I have to say, I definitely now know what contestants on the “The Price Is Right” feel like when they miss the exact price of a Showcase Showdown by one dollar. It’s excruciating. This hurts more than all of my missed incorrect picks this season combined and there have been a lot of them. I was ONE POINT away from predicting the exact final score. This is like missing out on $127 million in the Mega Millions because you got one number wrong on your ticket.
Worst pick: The Commanders have been bad for so long that I almost always pick against them without even thinking about it, but I’m definitely going to have to rethink that strategy because it appears that they’re actually GOOD this year. Last week, I predicted that the Cardinals would beat the Commanders 30-27, which is laughable in hindsight, because those two teams could have played 58 quarters of football and I’m still not sure the Cardinals would have been able to score 30 points. As a matter of fact, if they had played 58 quarters, the final score might have been 207-29. It’s probably for the best that they didn’t play 58 quarters.
Finally, I should let everyone know that based on my unscientific research, I’ve found that roughly 57% of the people who read this picks column wish they could get an email from me every day. Well, YOU CAN. I write the Pick Six newsletter and it comes out every weekday. If you want it sent to your inbox, all you have to do is click here and subscribe. Once you sign up, you’ll start getting one email per day where I’ll be touching on every NFL-related topic I can think of and even ones that I can’t think of. If you’re wondering how that’s possible, you’ll have to subscribe.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 4: 11-5
SU overall: 30-34
Against the spread in Week 4: 9-7
ATS overall: 27-34-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably eating tea and crumpets so he’ll be in the proper mindset when the London game kicks off on Sunday.
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