1
|
Capitals
|
99.9% | Prior to the season, if you had told me the Capitals would be a virtual playoff lock before February, I would have assumed at least six or seven Eastern Conference teams had been sucked into a black hole. Instead, Alex Ovechkin is hunting down Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, Pierre-Luc Dubois has new life and Logan Thompson is playing like a Vezina Trophy contender.
|
—
|
34-11-5
|
2
|
Oilers
|
99.6% | It’s no shock the Oilers, a team that fell one win short of a Stanley Cup in 2024-25, are well on their way to the playoffs. Leon Draisaitl is playing at a Hart Trophy level, and Connor McDavid is playing at a 123-point pace. The only two potential Achilles heels for this team are goaltending and scoring depth, but they have the firepower to paper over those.
|
—
|
32-15-3
|
3
|
Jets
|
99.9% | A dominant power play and elite goaltending can take you far in this league. Look no further than the Jets for proof. Their five-on-five metrics are solid but not outstanding, but special teams and Connor Hellebuyck have propelled them to the stop of the standings. There’s no doubt Winnipeg is going to the postseason, but does it have another gear to its five-on-five game?
|
4
|
35-14-3
|
4
|
Stars
|
99.3% | The Stars have very few weaknesses, and they have their heights set much higher than simply qualifying for the playoffs. Dallas has now lost the Western Conference Final in back-to-back years, and it’s looking to break through this time around. Seven Stars have scored double-digit goals, and that doesn’t include Tyler Seguin’s nine in 19 games. No other team can match that type of forward depth.
|
1
|
32-17-1
|
5
|
Hurricanes
|
99.5% | Carolina is no stranger to playoff hockey, and it just took a massive swing in pursuit of its second championship in franchise history. The Hurricanes have lacked an elite scorer for years now, but that role has been filled by Mikko Rantanen, a 55-goal scorer and a 16.2% career shooter. He might help the Canes get over that playoff hurdle.
|
2
|
31-16-4
|
6
|
Maple Leafs
|
91.8% | Right now Toronto is in the driver’s seat in the Atlantic Division, and it’s in that position despite Auston Matthews missing 15 games. The Leafs have the offensive weapons and the shutdown defensemen necessary to win in the playoffs. It’ll be up to Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz to keep up their stellar play, but neither player has much of a playoff resume.
|
2
|
30-18-2
|
7
|
Golden Knights
|
99.7% | The Golden Knights have nearly lost their grip on the Pacific Division thanks to this January slump. It should be noted that Vegas’ process has been quite strong. The team has a 54.2% expected goals share in this stretch but not the results to match. The main issue has been the Golden Knights’ inability to turn scoring chances into goals, which I suspect will correct itself by April.
|
6
|
31-15-5
|
8
|
Panthers
|
94.3% | The reigning champs are still in great position to make the playoffs, and their roster is now loaded with experience following back-to-back Stanley Cup Final runs. Goaltending has failed the Panthers to this point in the season or their chances would be higher. They just have to hope Sergei Bobrovsky or Spencer Knight finds a groove this spring.
|
3
|
29-19-3
|
9
|
Wild
|
91.2% | Minnesota has a large buffer between itself and the final wild card spot, so these chances make sense, but the news has not been good lately. The Wild have struggled to string together wins in January, Filip Gustavsson has fallen apart between the pipes, and Kirill Kaprizov will miss four weeks after undergoing surgery. The adversity is starting to mount for the Wild.
|
—
|
29-17-4
|
10
|
Canadiens
|
23.1% | Despite the Canadiens’ impressive run, they barely have more than a one-in-four shot to make the playoffs. That’s probably because statistical models anticipate them cooling off down the stretch. It’s pretty unlikely Patrik Laine keeps shooting over 29% on the power play, and I don’t see the team continuing to outperform lackluster numbers for much longer. Having said that, the team is fun and the vibes are good. Ride the wave as long as possible.
|
2
|
24-21-5
|
11
|
Avalanche
|
79.1% | The Avs aren’t a sure thing to make the postseason, but at this rate, I’d be shocked if they didn’t get in. Having said that, I don’t think the team got better this week. Martin Necas is a very skilled player, and I’m sure he’ll have plenty of success with Nathan MacKinnon. Mikko Rantanen, on the other hand, has proven himself to be one of the best scorers in the NHL. No ordinary scrub can do that, even if they are riding shotgun with MacKinnon.
|
5
|
29-21-2
|
12
|
Blue Jackets
|
18.2% | Columbus is nipping on the Lightning’s heels in the East, and these chances are too low if you ask me. The Blue Jackets are starting to look like a team of destiny, which is why I’m willing to overlook their poor underlying numbers. Kirill Marchenko is a machine, Sean Monahan is an easy player to root for and Zach Werenski is putting on a show from the blue line. The longer Columbus stays in the race, the better.
|
2
|
24-19-7
|
13
|
Lightning
|
62.5% | The last couple weeks, which have included losses to the Blackhawks and Red Wings, have not helped Tampa’s playoff bid. The Lightning are now in the East’s second wild card spot, and there is zero room between them and the Blue Jackets. It would help if Brandon Hagel, who hasn’t scored since Jan. 12, would heat up again.
|
3
|
26-20-3
|
14
|
Red Wings
|
27.5% | For the second season in a row, the Red Wings find themselves in the thick of the playoff race despite posting some underwhelming performances at five-on-five. Detroit is 11-4-1 since Todd McClellan took over as coach, but the team’s power play is running hotter than a firecracker. The Wings are converting on 37.7% of their man advantage opportunities in that stretch, and that has been the difference. I just don’t know how much longer that will persist.
|
3
|
24-21-5
|
15
|
Devils
|
91.8% | New Jersey has been trending the wrong direction for much of the last month, which means this number was much closer to 100 at the start of the new year. Losing Jacob Markstrom won’t make life easier on the Devils, but if they can make it to the 4 Nations Faceoff without giving up more ground, they should be just fine for the home stretch.
|
1
|
28-18-6
|
16
|
Senators
|
69.6% | The roller-coaster Senators have decided to heat up again, which makes predicting their playoff chances pretty difficult. Brady Tkachuk just ended an 11-game point drought, and that type of stretch can’t happen much more often if Ottawa is going to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
|
2
|
26-20-4
|
17
|
Kings
|
94.4% | While the Kings are very likely a playoff team, they aren’t out of the woods just yet. That’s because their offense, or lack thereof, is keeping them from being a truly elite team. As good as Los Angeles is defensively, it lacks real elite playmakers at the top of the lineup. That might sink the team in the playoffs again when it runs into the Oilers, Stars or Golden Knights.
|
5
|
26-15-6
|
18
|
Islanders
|
28.0% | I was ready to write off the Islanders entirely, and they’ve now won five in a row and eight of their last 10. They still have plenty of work to do with six teams between them and a playoff spot, but they have life. That said, this is the type of situation that may prevent GM Lou Lamoriello from doing what’s necessary and selling at the trade deadline to build for the future.
|
5
|
22-20-7
|
19
|
Rangers
|
49.3% | Given how bad things looked just a couple of weeks ago, the Rangers will probably take what is essentially a coin flip here. It’s no secret New York has serious interest in JT Miller, and the Canucks are certainly looking for a buyer. I wonder how adding a player of Miller’s caliber would affect these chances because, on paper, the Rangers are better than the other teams around them in the standings.
|
3
|
24-22-4
|
20
|
Flames
|
50.5% | The Flames have had a very tenuous grasp on that final playoff spot in the West for a while now, but it seems like no team wants to take a stranglehold on it. If rookie Dustin Wolf keeps standing on his head in goal, Calgary will have as good a chance as anyone at securing that second wild card spot.
|
1
|
24-18-7
|
21
|
Bruins
|
32.4% | The Bruins’ playoff chances weren’t great before giving up a touchdown to the Sabres on Tuesday, and they’re even worse now. Boston’s special teams are a disaster, Jeremy Swayman has struggled all season and the team’s five-on-five game isn’t good enough to make up for that. The Bruins are still in a playoff spot, but that won’t be the case for much longer if this keeps up.
|
1
|
25-21-6
|
22
|
Flyers
|
10.2% | The Flyers are once again overperforming under John Tortorella, but for the second season in a row, it probably won’t be good enough. Matvei Michkov has proven he can be an electric player in the NHL, but the Flyers simply need more game-breakers at the top of the lineup, as well as reliable goaltending.
|
1
|
23-22-6
|
23
|
Blues
|
14.9% | In the immediate aftermath of Jim Montgomery’s hiring, St. Louis looked like it could be the team that snuck into the West’s final wild card spot. However, the Blues have cooled off a bit lately, and Pavel Buchnevich has been even cooler. Buchnevich hasn’t scored since Jan. 9, and St. Louis doesn’t really have the depth to overcome one of its key forwards experiencing a drought.
|
8
|
23-24-4
|
24
|
Canucks
|
40.2% | Canucks president of hockey pperations Jim Rutherford just outright admitted the drama between JT Miller and Elias Pettersson has been a distraction for the team. So, that’s bad. Perhaps a trade is all that’s needed to get Vancouver back on track, but maybe not. The Canucks have some problems that extend beyond the soap opera.
|
1
|
22-17-10
|
25
|
Predators
|
6.5% | Nashville’s playoff chances are on life support, but it does have the weakest remaining schedule in the NHL. Plus, no one ahead of the Predators in the standings has shown the ability to sustain success. That gives Nashville a prayer, but it’s hard to have faith the team can take advantage of that soft schedule given its own inconsistent play.
|
1
|
18-23-7
|
26
|
Hockey Club
|
20.2% | Playoffs may not be in the cards for Salt Lake City this year. While the team has been entertaining, it’s become clear Utah needs one or two more key pieces, especially on defense. Plus, Dylan Guenther is out indefinitely due to injury, and his 16 goals are second on the team. I guess Utah, like every other bubble team in the West, can take solace in the fact that its competition is pretty mediocre.
|
2
|
21-21-7
|
27
|
Ducks
|
3.7% | The Ducks have won three in a row, but it’s still hard to see them making any noise in the West. Their five-on-five numbers, including a 43.7% expected goals share, are horrific. Goaltending has had to bail out the defense constantly, and John Gibson may be on his way out of the door before the trade deadline.
|
3
|
21-23-6
|
28
|
Sabres
|
0.6% | I send my condolences to Buffalo fans. You go from the gut punch that was from the AFC Championship to watching this team. At least Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka both had hat tricks on Tuesday. That was cool!
|
1
|
19-26-5
|
29
|
Kraken
|
0.8% | The Kraken have looked dead in the water for a while now, and these playoff chances confirm it. Seattle would need an epic run in order to get back into the race, and the team has shown zero indication that will happen. The Kraken have too many holes in their lineup, and depth can’t make up for a lack of real firepower in the top six. That’s something they’ll have to address in the offseason.
|
2
|
22-27-3
|
30
|
Penguins
|
1.3% | The Penguins might be on the verge of a sell-off, but for the moment it doesn’t look like Sidney Crosby is going anywhere. How many teams will really be interested in Erik Karlsson? What about the other two members of the big three, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang?
|
2
|
20-24-8
|
31
|
Blackhawks
|
0.0% | This team didn’t have a chance of making the playoffs on opening night, and it somehow got even worse by trading away Taylor Hall. It could get very ugly in Chicago the rest of the way, but that’s by design.
|
—
|
16-29-5
|
32
|
Sharks
|
0.0% | The plan for the Sharks was to finish at the bottom of the standings again, and I will go ahead and say, “Mission accomplished.” San Jose has allowed 36 goals against in its last seven games, so I don’t think the team is in jeopardy of blowing its spot in the draft lottery.
|
—
|
15-32-6
|
