Heading into last season, many folks believed the NL Central would be the most competitive division, top to bottom, in all of baseball. Sure enough, the last-place Pirates finished just 17 games out, making this the tightest first-to-last race in baseball. Still, it wasn’t a fun fight at the top of the division as the Brewers ran away with a division title by 10 games. Only seven games separated the other four teams, so perhaps there’s hope for a five-way race this season?
Despite trading closer Devin Williams and losing shortstop Willy Adames to free agency, the Brewers come into 2025 as the NL Central favorite, fresh off their fourth division title since 2018. The Cubs were a mild disappointment last season, winning 83 games for the second-straight season. The addition of MVP-caliber star Kyle Tucker helps matters. The Cardinals had a disappointing 2024 season, but still managed to win 83 games and though they’re in a state of transition, it would be foolish to count them out. The Reds and Pirates both have a lot of talent and it’ll be interesting to see how they harness it. There’s star power on opposite ends with those two teams, as the Pirates have a superstar ace in youngster Paul Skenes and the Reds have future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona leading their crew.
Some projection systems have this thing close enough that there’s only a six-game spread between first and last place. Others differ, but the one thing that really stands out is there doesn’t seem to be a truly bad team in the bunch. Other divisions have bottom-feeders like the Rockies or Marlins or White Sox, but not here. All five teams have enough talent on hand to make the playoffs. It’s just a matter of watching it all play out.
Odds are there’s no chance that all five teams remain close with one another, whether a few teams separate at the top end or one falls far behind, but we can dare to dream.
Milwaukee Brewers
Projected starting lineup
1. Jackson Chourio, RF
2. Christian Yelich, DH
3. William Contreras, C
4. Garrett Mitchell, CF
5. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
6. Brice Turang, 2B
7. Joey Ortiz, SS
8. Sal Frelick, LF
9. Oliver Dunn, 3B
As always, the Brewers will use plenty of their bench, most notably Mark Canha. Blake Perkins will see the field a lot once he returns from injury, too.
Projected rotation
RHP Freddy Peralta
LHP Nestor Cortes
RHP Aaron Civale
LHP José Quintana
LHP Tyler Alexander
The big addition will be two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff once he’s full go in returning from shoulder surgery. Tobias Myers is also dealing with an oblique injury.
Notable relievers
RHP Trevor Megill
LHP Jared Koenig
RHP Joel Payamps
LHP Bryan Hudson
RHP Elvis Peguero
Biggest question: Can they finally make another deep playoff run?
In looking at just the regular season, this is truly the Golden Era of Brewers baseball. They’ve made the postseason six of the last seven years and posted a winning record in seven consecutive full seasons. Before this run, there had only been four Brewers playoff teams (1981-82, 2008, 2011). After getting to Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS against the Dodgers, the Brewers have gone 2-10 in playoff games, advancing a round zero times.
Despite losing Williams and Adames, it’s possible the Brewers are still good enough to make that deep run. Chourio is on the cusp of becoming a superstar, Contreras could stake a claim as the best catcher in baseball and there’s always the chance Yelich puts together a full season. Peralta and Woodruff firing on all cylinders atop a possibly deep rotation makes for a nice transition to a bullpen where Megill already showed he’s up to task as the leader with Williams hurt last year. Also keep in mind the Brewers are one of the best base-stealing teams in baseball in an era where that’s starting to make a big difference again.
This team can be dangerous. But will it be when it matters most?
Chicago Cubs
Projected starting lineup
1. Ian Happ, LF
2. Seiya Suzuki, DH
3. Kyle Tucker, RF
4. Michael Busch, 1B
5. Matt Shaw, 3B
6. Dansby Swanson, SS
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
8. Miguel Amaya, C
9. Jon Berti, 2B
Nico Hoerner will be the everyday second baseman once he returns from injury while Justin Turner will get plenty of at-bats.
Projected rotation
LHP Shota Imanaga
LHP Justin Steele
RHP Jameson Taillon
LHP Matthew Boyd
RHP Colin Rea
Javier Assad is injured but could get plenty of starts. Ben Brown, Brad Keller and Jordan Wicks could also figure prominently here at the back-end of the rotation.
Notable relievers
RHP Ryan Pressly
RHP Porter Hodge
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Tyson Miller
RHP Nate Pearson
Biggest question: Can the Cubs return to actual relevance?
The Cubs became one of the more prominent franchises in baseball around a decade ago, making three straight NLCS and winning the 2016 World Series. Through 2020, the Cubs had a run of six straight winning seasons that included five playoff berths and three NL Central titles. Then they tore down what was left of the title team in 2021 and — after promising it wouldn’t be an extended rebuild — suffered through another bad season in 2022. Since then, mediocrity has taken over with two 83-win seasons. Club president Jed Hoyer enters the final year of his contract as a lame duck. He should either produce a playoff team or be sent packing. The Cubs have enough talent on the field and in the dugout (second-year manager Craig Counsell), but they aren’t exceptional anywhere and instead might be just pretty good at a lot of places.
It’s time for these Cubs to play like an actual contender for the whole season and into October. The addition of Tucker helps and perhaps Pressly and Boyd do too, but otherwise it’s a lot of the same players who just need to play better. And there’s reason to believe guys like Busch, Crow-Armstrong and Amaya will grow along with the upside of getting full seasons from Suzuki and Steele this time around.
They just need to put it together.
Obviously, the Cubs are already 0-2, but in the grand scheme of things in a division that figures to be very close, starting 0-2 against the Dodgers — while certainly not good at all — isn’t disqualifying.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected starting lineup
1. Tommy Pham, LF
2. Bryan Reynolds, RF
3. Oneil Cruz, CF
4. Andrew McCutchen, DH
5. Joey Bart, C
6. D.J. Stewart, 1B
7. Nick Gonzales, 2B
8. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS
Offseason acquisition Spencer Horwitz will return to first base after he recovers from surgery. Adam Frazier, Jack Suwinski and Jared Triolo are the depth pieces.
Projected rotation
RHP Paul Skenes
RHP Mitch Keller
LHP Andrew Heaney
LHP Bailey Falter
Talented right-hander Jared Jones has elbow discomfort and is undergoing testing. This is obviously significant. He’s the No. 3 starter if he emerges from testing with a minor issue. If not, perhaps Carmen Mlodzinski gets the fifth starter spot.
Notable relievers
RHP David Bednar
RHP Dennis Santana
RHP Colin Holderman
LHP Tim Mayza
LHP Caleb Ferguson
Biggest question: Is there enough offense?
In Skenes, it’s possible the Pirates have the best pitcher in baseball in 2025. Keller can be an All-Star and Jones is that good as well, though it’s tough to see all three making it this year. The point is, the talent is there. Heaney makes for a nice back-end starter, as does Falter. This is to say that there’s reason to believe the Pirates will have a very good rotation this season. In looking at the bullpen, there are enough pieces to see things fall into place, too, even if there are plenty of question marks. The Jones injury looms ominously, though.
That offense, of course, is concerning. The Pirates finished 24th in baseball in runs scored last season. They were 23rd in average, 26th in on-base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. The personnel is mostly the same. There’s always hope that Cruz at age 26 takes a step toward stardom and Hayes could provide more in a full season after a brutal, injury-abbreviated 2024. Maybe Horwitz returns from his injury with a vengeance. Maybe Bart’s half-season breakout was real. May Pham and McCutchen can pull through for one last run of success.
It just seems like it’ll be an uphill battle to score runs on a consistent basis with this offense. Having that kind of rotation means it’ll just be that much more annoying for Pirates fans.
Cincinnati Reds
Projected starting lineup
1. TJ Friedl, CF
2. Matt McLain, 2B
3. Elly De La Cruz, SS
4. Austin Hays, LF
5. Jeimer Candelario, 1B
6. Gavin Lux, 3B
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, DH
8. Jake Fraley, RF
9. Jose Trevino, C
Tyler Stephenson is the primary catcher once he returns from an oblique injury. Spencer Steer is also injured but will factor heavily upon his return. Santiago Espinal could see platoon at-bats at third. There’s always the chance Noelvi Marte forces his way back to the majors and into regular at-bats, too.
Projected rotation
RHP Hunter Greene
RHP Brady Singer
LHP Nick Lodolo
RHP Nick Martinez
LHP Andrew Abbott
Righty Graham Ashcraft remains an option.
Notable relievers
RHP Alexis Díaz
LHP Taylor Rogers
RHP Emilio Pagán
LHP Sam Moll
Biggest question: How big a difference does Francona make?
The Reds over the last several years have had a lot of young talent that either hasn’t yet developed or has been injured. Last season, we saw De La Cruz emerge as a real superstar while Greene showed he can throw like an ace. It’s time for some of the likes of Marte, Encarnacion-Strand, Lodolo and Steer to follow suit. There could still be untapped upside in players like Freidl, Fraley, Stephenson, Abbott and Ashcraft, too, plus new Reds Lux and Singer as well.
In an offseason where the Reds’ key acquisition was a manager who has had great success in his career, the big question is just how many wins does he add. There are moves to be made in each individual game, but there’s also a culture change and figuring out ways to bring out the best in individual players. Francona got Boston over the top in 2004 and won it all again in 2007. He shaped his ballclub in Cleveland into an annual contender and threat for a deep playoff run. What can he do for Cincinnati?
It’s always far more complicated than just looking at the records, but it’s interesting to note that he took over a 68-win team in Cleveland and won 92 games in his first year there. The Reds won 77 last year.
St. Louis Cardinals
Projected starting lineup
1. Masyn Winn, SS
2. Lars Nootbaar, LF
3. Willson Contreras, 1B
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B
5. Brendan Donovan, 2B
6. Iván Herrera, C
7. Alec Burleson, DH
8. Jordan Walker, RF
9. Victor Scott II, CF
Nolan Gorman will get his share of playing time, too.
Projected rotation
RHP Sonny Gray
RHP Erick Fedde
RHP Miles Mikolas
RHP Andre Pallante
LHP Steven Matz
Notable relievers
RHP Ryan Helsley
LHP Matthew Liberatore
RHP Ryan Fernandez
LHP JoJo Romero
RHP Phil Maton
Biggest question: How do they juggle the youth movement with contention?
The Cardinals don’t do rebuilds. They finished in last place in 2023, the first time the Cardinals were in that position to end a season since 1990. They haven’t finished with losing records in back-to-back seasons since 1994-95 and those weren’t 162-game seasons due to a strike. So after an offseason that saw Paul Goldschmidt walk in free agency while the Cardinals tried and repeatedly failed to trade Nolan Arenado, they are in a bit of a transition phase.
If the Cardinals were planning to offload all veterans, they would have dangled Gray and Contreras in addition to Arenado. Fedde, Mikolas and even Helsley could also be moved. They would also just play as many of the youngsters as possible while helping them develop at the big-league level, such as Gorman (age 25 this year), Winn (23), Burleson (26), Walker (23), Scott (24), Herrera (24) along with dipping into prospects like catcher Jimmy Crooks and pitchers Tink Hence and Sem Robberse.
Instead, the Cardinals are trying to win while reloading the organization with the youth movement. Their version of that appears to be keeping some of the veterans around and not letting the younger players struggle at the big-league level as long as they remain in the race. It’s a balancing act.
Meantime, club president John Mozeliak is stepping down after the season and transitioning front office leadership to Chaim Bloom.
If the Cardinals do fall out of the race quickly, it would make things a lot easier in pushing for the future, but they are good enough to hang around. If they do, it’s going to be interesting to watch how they deal with the personnel.
Read the full article here
