The NFL season is essentially at the quarter mark (hard to tell with the 18-week schedule and 17-game slate), and we’re starting to get a gauge of where teams stand and what direction they could go. The Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4. Outside of those teams, teams are still trying to find an identity heading into October.
The Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders are surprising division leaders while the Cincinnati Bengals are one of the preseason Super Bowl contenders trying to dig themselves out of an early-season hole. Through these first four weeks, we have enough data for overreactions with every team in the league.
So which of these overreactions are actually overreactions? Which of them are reality? This is an overreaction for every team after four weeks:
Kyler Murray gets too much blame for offensive woes
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Kyler Murray is not the problem with a Cardinals offense that’s 10th in points per possession (2.32) and eighth in yards per possession (35.2). The Cardinals have averaged just 13.5 points over the last two weeks, but Murray has a 66.1% completion rate with two touchdowns to an interception (87.6 rating).
On the season, Murray has completed 69.4% of his passes with six touchdowns to an interception. He’s seventh in the NFL in passer rating (104.6). Murray makes some poor decisions, but the offensive line is 25th in the league in pass-block win rate. He’s forced to making a play sooner than he wants to.
Bijan Robinson should get fewer touches in favor of Tyler Allgeier
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Bijan Robinson has 55 carries for 224 yards and a touchdown, averaging only 56.0 yards per game (23rd in NFL). He has just 359 yards from scrimmage and is averaging 17.5 touches per game.
Even though Allgeier is playing well, Robinson isn’t getting the ball enough. Allgeier is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per touch, but his 7.5 touches a game is fine. The Falcons need to focus on getting Robinson the ball more in games, not less.
Derrick Henry will rush for 2,000 yards
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing with 480 yards and is averaging an astonishing 6.0 yards per carry through the first four games. He has a whopping 350 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. Henry is on pace for 2,040 yards this season (120 rushing yards a game).
Does that mean he’ll get to 2,000 again? Highly unlikely, even in an offense tailored to his strengths with Lamar Jackson running the ball to help him out. Henry would have to stay healthy for all 17 games and can’t afford off days like he had the first two weeks of the year. He’s certainly a threat to win the rushing title again.
Buffalo will win the AFC East by multiple games
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Even after getting blown out by Baltimore, Buffalo is the most consistent team in the AFC East. The Bills are 3-1 and are already separating themselves from the Dolphins (who are still without Tua Tagovailoa) and the Patriots (who are in a rebuilding phase).
The Jets are talented, but they are too inconsistent week to week and aren’t coached as well as the Bills. This division is Buffalo’s to lose, and the Bills may win it before Week 18 is played.
Bryce Young shouldn’t start the rest of the year
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Unfortunately for the Panthers, the best thing to do is keep Bryce Young on the bench and have him learn watching from Andy Dalton. Carolin aisn’t a playoff team by any means, but the Panthers are at least competitive under Dalton.
Dalton is 51 of 77 in his two starts with 539 yards with five touchdowns to one interception for a 102.7 rating. The Panthers are scoring 30 points per game and averaging 406 yards per game under Dalton. This is a no-brainer.
Their offensive line is the worst in the NFL
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Bears offensive line isn’t very good. The 16 sacks allowed are tied for the third most in the NFL and the 10.2% sack rate is fifth worst. However, their 32.5% pressure rate is 14th.
This is also a Caleb Williams problem, as Williams lost 124 yards due to sacks — the most in the league. The Bears don’t have the worst offensive line in the league, but some of this needs to be attributed to Williams.
Cincinnati Bengals
They will be the first team to start 0-3 and make the playoffs since 2018 Texans
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Bengals are used to getting off to slow starts, but 0-3 is very tough to overcome. Cincinnati is currently 1-3 and plays host to Baltimore, a game the Bengals have to have in Week 5. The Bengals have winnable games in the Giants and Browns, before another crucial home showdown with the Eagles.
Keep in mind the Bengals play the Ravens again on the road and the Steelers twice too. They also have road games against the Cowboys and Chargers in there. The key for Cincinnati is to go 5-1 in the AFC North. If the Bengals can do that, their chances of making the playoffs are pretty good. Cincinnati must win Sunday.
Amari Cooper is playing his way out of Cleveland
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Amari Cooper has struggled in three of the four games he’s played this year, having less than 40 yards in those contests. He doesn’t have a 100-yard game yet either, but does have two touchdowns.
In the last year of his contract, Cleveland could trade Cooper if the Browns’ season gets out of hand. With Nick Chubb out, Cooper is easily their best offensive weapon. The Browns need their top playmakers back, then things will open up for Cooper.
They will trade for a running back at the deadline
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Cowboys have to improve the worst rushing attack in football. Dallas is last in rushing yards per game (75.3) and 30th in yards per carry (3.5). Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle just aren’t cutting it, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with one touchdown.
It’s hard to take the Cowboys seriously as an NFC East contender until they fix their running back situation. They need to add someone by the deadline.
Bo Nix will get benched at some point this year
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Broncos gave Bo Nix the Week 1 start because he won the job in training camp. Will Nix be able to hold on to that spot with his subpar play?
Nix is 31st in the league in passer rating (61.5) and has just one touchdown to four interceptions with 4.8 yards per attempt (32nd in the league). While being one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, Sean Payton is willing to let the rookie learn on the fly. Also helps Denver is 2-2.
They are the best team in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Hard to say this after four weeks when the Lions aren’t even leading their own division, but the Lions have proven they are the Super Bowl contenders we thought. They are seventh in points per possession (2.41) and sixth in yards per possession (36.1) and are starting to find their stride on offense. Also helps they have playmakers across the board.
Detroit is 3-0 against the NFC West, but had a statement win over Seattle in Week 4. Right now, the Lions are as good as advertised. The Week 7 game against the Vikings will be an indicator for both teams.
The pass rush is still a problem
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Green Bay is 16th in the league in pressure rate (35.1%) and seventh in the league in sack rate (9.1%). The Packers are getting to the quarterback, so why is this a topic through four games?
Kenny Clark has no sacks and no quarterback hits. Rashan Gary has one sack, and that was when he was unblocked in Week 1. They do have a combined 15 pressures, but the Packers need to get them going.
They aren’t a Super Bowl contender this year
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Houston has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL and are 3-1, but all of their wins are by one score or less (a win is a win). The Texans played a very good team in the Vikings and got run out of the building.
Granted the Texans are taking care of business and should win the AFC South easily, but how do they stack up against the AFC contenders? We’ll find out this week against Buffalo. Houston also plays Detroit, Kansas City and Baltimore later this year as well.
Joe Flacco should start over Anthony Richardson
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Anthony Richardson is hurt often, that’s just the reality. He missed 13 games last season with injuries and has played just eight games in his two seasons — only finishing four of them. Doesn’t help he’s only completing 50.6% of his passes with three touchdowns to six interceptions (60.2 rating).
The Colts offense is more efficient with Flacco, but it’s just one game. Richardson is a top five draft pick. When he’s healthy, he plays.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson won’t have his job by Week 12
Overreaction or reality: Reality
This is when the Jaguars have their bye week. Jacksonville is 0-4 and Doug Pederson is already having to face questions about his job status. The Jaguars’ only win since Week 13 of last season was against the Panthers, losing nine of 10 that included a stunning collapse in the AFC South.
Jacksonville has three winnable games coming up, but if the Jaguars don’t go 3-0 in this stretch — is Pederson safe? The Jaguars then play the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions in order. Pederson’s fate may come when the bye week hits.
Kansas City Chiefs
The three-peat is over with Rashee Rice’s injury
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Rashee Rice’s knee injury is devastating to a Chiefs offense that relied on him to free up Travis Kelce and give Patrick Mahomes a much-needed target on the outside. Now that Rice is out, can the Chiefs offense be good enough to help out a great defense?
Kelce needs to continue his strong play from Sunday and get back to an All-Pro level. Xavier Worthy will also be factored more, but the loss of Rice is massive. As we learned, never doubt Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. They overcome things.
Davante Adams will get traded for a first-round pick
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Raiders reportedly will take a second-round pick for Davante Adams, but he’s still worth a first-round pick at 31 years old. Adams has four straight 1,000-yard seasons and will become a top five receiver with a better quarterback.
Teams will bid for Adams, knowing he’s the missing piece toward being a Super Bowl contender. The Raiders should get a first-round pick for him.
The magic is running out for J.K. Dobbins
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
J.K. Dobbins hasn’t been the same running back the last two weeks as he was the first two, mainly because the interior offensive line hasn’t been good (and is a weakness on a unit that isn’t strong to begin with).
Dobbins has 29 carries for 76 yards over the last two games, but that can easily turn the other way. Playing weaker interior defenses will help get the Chargers’ running game going again. A week off will also help Dobbins rest up as well. Dobbins is still on pace for 1,454 yards this season. If he’s healthy, he’ll be around that amount.
Tutu Atwell will lead NFL in yards per catch
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Tutu Atwell is one of the best deep-ball receivers in the league, benefitting in the absence of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. He’s third in the NFL in yards per catch (20.3), having 11 catches for 223 yards through four games.
The deep balls from Matthew Stafford will come, but it will be hard for Atwell to maintain that pace. Justin Jefferson and Rashid Shaheed are on the top 10 of this list as well. Atwell is still having an excellent start to the year.
Tua Tagovailoa is a top-10 quarterback
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Dolphins are currently living the reality of not having Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback, possessing one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL. It’s time the NFL accepts how valuable Tagovailoa is when he’s on the field.
Of the 20 quarterbacks with 750+ pass attempts since the start of the 2022 season, Tagovailoa is the only one with a 100+ passer rating (101.5). He’s fifth in completion rate (67.2), sixth in touchdown passes (56), and third in touchdown rate (5.5%). The Dolphins are 20-12 in his starts.
When Tagovailoa plays, the Dolphins are a playoff team. When he doesn’t, the results are clear.
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold is the MVP
Overreaction or reality: Reality
There isn’t another option at this point. Not only are the Vikings off to a 4-0 start, but Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in the league through four weeks. Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes (11) and touchdown rate (10.9%), the only player with 10+ touchdown passes and a touchdown rate over 7.0%.
As long as the Vikings keep winning and Darnold is playing well, he’ll be in the thick of the MVP race. Minnesota isn’t 4-0 without Darnold’s excellent play.
Drake Maye should be the starting quarterback right now
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Patriots should make the switch to Drake Maye now, yet will still roll with Jacoby Brissett for at least another week. Of the 26 quarterbacks with 100+ pass attempts, Brissett is 24th in completion rate (60.4%), tied for 24th in touchdown passes (2), 23rd in passer rating (77.0), and 24th in yards per attempt (5.3).
New England is rebuilding and wants to be patient with Maye, but the time is now. Brissett just isn’t doing enough to maintain his job.
Their 2-0 start was fraudulent
Overreaction or reality: Reality
New Orleans was the talk of the league after two weeks, having a historic start on offense while averaging 45.5 points per game. That wasn’t going to sustain, but the Saints have scored just 36 points over their last two games.
The Saints sit at 2-2 and have a showdown with the Chiefs, followed by the division-leading Buccaneers. Both teams have aggressive defenses, which will be a true test to see what their high-powered offense is made of. Again, don’t put a lot of stock into blowing out the Panthers.
Brian Burns was a bad deal
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Giants gave up a premium for Brian Burns and signed him to a massive extension. So far, they haven’t gotten what they paid for.
Burns has just 11 pressures, one sack, and three quarterback hits through four games — a pressure rate of 10.1%. He’s playing on the same defensive line with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence, so those numbers should be better. Outside of one week, Burns just hasn’t gotten to the quarterback consistently.
Still too soon to determine if this was a bad deal, but the early returns aren’t promising.
Robert Saleh won’t last the season as coach
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Jets have a very talented roster, but continue to be inconsistent week to week. Having a 10-day layoff and facing the Broncos at home should be an easy win, but the Jets ended up failing to score 10 points against Denver (and lost).
Hard to gauge what the Jets are, but the league is about to find out with consecutive games against the Vikings (London), Bills and Steelers coming up. Robert Saleh is going to be on the hot seat all season, but the Jets will be giving him the benefit of the doubt unless the year spirals out of control.
Nick Sirianni won’t last the season as coach
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Same situation as the Jets, as the Eagles are inconsistent and facing some internal problems in spite of the 2-2 start. Sound familiar?
The Eagles don’t appear to have exercised the demons from last season, and the defense is still struggling despite adding Vic Fangio. Then there’s the whole debate on what Nick Sirianni actually does and the questionable decisions he’s made during games in the early going.
Getting players healthy (namely A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson) will significantly help out the Eagles after the bye week. Then it’s fair to judge Sirianni’s fate.
They’ll win the AFC North if they acquire Davante Adams
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Steelers have gotten better play from Justin Fields than expected, as he’s played a pivotal role in their 3-1 start. The offense still needs a boost to help out a top-five defense. Enter Davante Adams, the wide receiver the Steelers have been seeking all offseason.
Adams immediately helps the Steelers’ red zone offense (27th in NFL) and opens up the passing game for Fields (three passing touchdowns). Baltimore is the team to beat in the division right now, but Pittsburgh will be a significant threat to win the division with Adams.
The Brandon Aiyuk situation will play itself out
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Brandon Aiyuk got the money he sought and is still having some internal affairs with the organization. The start for Aiyuk hasn’t been great either, as he has just 13 catches for 167 yards and zero touchdowns after four games.
Aiyuk should be back into game shape and still has good chemistry with Brock Purdy. The shorts debacle aside, Aiyuk should be fine as the season progresses. The 2023 version of Aiyuk should be coming sooner rather than later.
Seattle Seahawks
Mike Macdonald will take this team to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Seahawks are one of the biggest surprises of the season, as they are off to a 3-1 start with their lone loss coming to the Lions on the road. They have a top-10 defense, currently ranking ninth in points allowed per possession (1.65) and third in yards allowed per possession (23.2). The offense is also a top-15 unit and scored 23+ points every game.
This run appears to have sustaining power, which helps when a team is well-coached and doesn’t turn the ball over (+3 in turnover margin). The schedule is challenging, but Seattle has the look of a playoff team.
They are the team to beat in the NFC South
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Only took one game to determine Tampa Bay was going to compete for the division again. Outside of a shocking blemish at home to the Broncos, the Buccaneers have been impressive against three quality opponents (blowing out both the Commanders and Eagles).
The Buccaneers have a brutal schedule, but Baker mayfield hasn’t missed a beat under Liam Coen and the aging defense still consistently makes plays. Not to mention the Buccaneers have been banged up across the board. This is a good team.
Will Levis won’t be the starter coming out of the bye week
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Titans will be giving Levis another opportunity to retain his starting job, although there is legitimate reason to move on to Mason Rudolph. Levis has been the victim of 15 sacks, but also has thrown six interceptions and has lost all three fumbles.
Levis has made inexcusable decisions with the football and has been publicly criticized by coach Brian Callahan. The Titans are a few poor Levis decisions away from having a better record than 1-3. Regardless, Levis is on a short leash.
Washington Commanders
Dan Quinn will take this team to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Jayden Daniels has the look of being this year’s version of C.J. Stroud, a difference-making quarterback who can turn a franchise around. And that’s exactly what he’s doing. The Commanders are more than competitive with Daniels, but will defenses adjust to him and how will he handle them?
Then there’s the defense, which is dead-last in the NFL in points allowed per possession (3.31) and yards allowed per possession (44.7). That is not sustainable. Not to mention the Commanders need to play the Eagles and Cowboys twice, a litmus test for their NFC East chances.
Right now, let’s see if the Commanders are sustainable. The second half of their schedule is difficult.
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