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PFL Champions Series — Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Paul Hughes fight prediction, odds, undercard, start time

For as much as there has been to criticize the PFL over the past 12 months as the promotion continues to make claims of where it stands as the co-leader in global MMA, Saturday’s main event of the inaugural PFL Champions Series in Dubai is a must-see event. 

Usman Nurmagomedov (18-0) will defend his Bellator MMA lightweight title for the final time now that PFL has announced it will sunset the Bellator brand name after acquiring what was left of the promotion in late 2023. The talented native of Dagestan, Russia, will take on Irish upstart Paul Hughes (13-1) inside Coca-Cola Arena in the promotion’s debut in the United Arab Emirates.

The matchup pairs together two of the most talented fighters on the PFL roster and has produced plenty of fodder and headlines in the build to the fight, largely due to Nurmagomedov’s cousin and trainer, Khabib Nurmagomedov, using the fight to go public on his thoughts regarding a debate between Irish and Dagestan MMA, which traces back to Khabib’s UFC rivalry with Conor McGregor. 

The 26-year-od Nurmagomedov, who is also the younger brother of UFC bantamweight contender Umar, first captured the Bellator title in 2022 and has very much looked to fit in as far as lineage of great fighters once trained by his late uncle, Abdulmanap, which also includes current UFC lightweight champion and pound-for-pound king, Islam Makhachev. 

Hughes, meanwhile, had previously plied his craft in Cage Warriors as a decorated featherweight champion before coming to PFL last year. The 27-year-old Irishman, who was born in Australia, also raised his profile considerably when he upset former Bellator champion AJ McKee last October via split decision.  

Despite the hype brought to the table by Hughes, Nurmagomedov remains more than a 6-to-1 betting favorite. And in his mind, as Nurmagomedov told CBS Sports earlier this month, this is anything but a difficult matchup on paper for the cocky champion.

“It’s not a tough challenge for my career, let’s be honest,” Nurmagomedov said. “It’s not a tough challenge. A tough challenge in my career was my last fight [against Alexandr Shabily in September]. This guy, he’s not a tough challenge.

“Who said AJ McKee was a tough guy? Maybe [McKee is] for you but not for me. AJ McKee is a small, short guy for me. It’s the same for Paul Hughes, too. Look at this guy’s fight [with McKee] and look at my fight with Shabily and you will understand our levels. Brother, you watch MMA all your life, yes? How do you not understand? When you talk about levels, you need to understand.”

Nurmagomedov’s confidence doesn’t take away from how impressive Hughes truly performed against McKee. Despite the judges’ scores being much closer than expected, Hughes largely dominated the fight with poised and patient pressure from the opening round and nearly finished McKee with a jumping knee before the bell to end Round 2. 

For years, Nurmagomedov-McKee was talked about as the best fight to make in Bellator, before the acquisition by PFL. Hughes not only spoiled those plans, he called after the fight for his countryman McGregor to be in his corner although the former two-division UFC champion ultimately chose to attend BFKC’s “KnuckleMania” card in Philadelphia this weekend, where he is co-owner of the promotion.  

“This is what I envisioned when I came to the PFL,” Hughes told CBS Sports late week. “I really believed I could change the game with my performances and the hype that I bring. That’s exactly what happened here with this Usman fight. That fight was teed up for a long time to be [Nurmagomedov] versus AJ. Could you imagine if that fight happened right now? It would just not be on the same pedestal that this fight is. That’s what I bring to the table.

“Everything that happened in that fight is what we thought was going to happen, including how I implemented my game plan and how the shots landed. [My coaches] had zero doubt in their minds that I was going to go out and smash him and that’s exactly what I did.”  

Hughes, who turned pro in 2017, has been largely perfect thus far save for a disputed decision loss to Jordan Vucenic in 2020. 

Not only does Hughes believe he was robbed in that fight, he more than made up for it in their rematch three fights later where he unified the Cage Warriors’ 145-pound title via wide decision in a fight that was one-way traffic.  

“If I’m being honest, I didn’t see it as a loss. I thought that was very clearly a victory for me,” Hughes said. “First of all, I was annoyed but I remember that feeling the next day that I [thought I had] won that fight. Of course, it gave me a lot of motivation when I rematched Jordan to put the nail in the coffin and that’s exactly what I did, 50-43 on some of the scorecards. Absolutely undeniable and perhaps we can see something like that [against Nurmagomedov].”

Hughes describes Nurmagomedov as “world class” and believes he fits in well talent wise when compared to others in his family and training team, which Hughes referred to as “MMA royalty.” But in a matchup between two fighters who present extreme confidence at every turn, Hughes believes his opponent is clearly overlooking him. 

Nurmagomedov has looked technically sublime thus far as a pro, which includes dominant wins under the Bellator banner against former champions Patricky Pitbull, Benson Henderson and Brent Primus (although the latter was ruled a no contest when Nurmagomedov accidentally ingested a prescription drug that contained a banned substance). But Hughes expects to show his unbeaten foe something he has never seen before.

“I don’t think Usman has been in the position of a high-pressure fight before,”  Hughes said. “I don’t think that any of his fights have had this level of hype and magnitude. I think with the crowd that I am bringing with me to Dubai here, he has never dealt with and that’s going to change things. Thankfully, I’ve had plenty of nights like this. It’s going to be very different for him, especially when I start walking him down.

“I think I’m actually going to make it look easy against him, to be completely honest. I think he will be 100 percent unconscious before the end of five rounds.” 

While it remains unknown whether the winner will get upgraded to PFL lightweight champion or how much longer Nurmagomedov will remain with the promotion given previous comments that he would like to overtake Makhachev as UFC champion once his teammate makes the decision to move up in weight, Nurmagomedov spoke in third-person to describe what Saturday’s fight will look like. 

“Usman is going to maul this guy for all five rounds like he did with all his opponents 19 times,” Nurmagomedov said. “That’s it. I have had 19 fights and I haven’t lost even one round of my career.”

PFL Champion Series card, odds

Usman Nurmagomedov -450 Paul Hughes +300 Lightweight
Vadim Nemkov -1100 Timothy Johnson +575 Heavyweight
Akhmed Magomedov -260 Nathan Kelly +190 Featherweight
Ibragim Ibragimov -500 Haider Khan +140 Featherweight
Renat Khavalov -2000 Cleiver Fernandes +800 Bantamweight

Where to watch PFL Champion Series

Date: Jan. 25 | Start time: 11 a.m. ET (main card)
Location: Coca-Cola Arena — Dubai
TV channel: Max/DAZN (subscription required)

Prediction 

There are very few fighters in any organization that look as complete, poised and talented as Nurmagomedov. But this has the making to be anything but the one-sided drubbing that the betting odds suggest, with Hughes installed as a nearly 5-to-1 underdog. 

Hughes is tough, patient, has good wrestling and a very strong top game on the ground. He brought the fight to McKee with precision and power, never hesitating as he walked the presumably more skilled fighter down for most of the 15 minutes between them. 

While Nurmagomedov is likely a tougher nut to crack, especially over five rounds, it’s what we still don’t know about Hughes’ upward potential that makes this matchup so interesting. 

In the end, Nurmagomedov should still be able to do enough to claim a hard-earned decision in a performance which should only boost Hughes’ global reputation and confidence for the future. 

Pick: Nurmagomedov via UD



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