Premier League race for Champions League spots: Can Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle hold off a crowded field?

The finish line is in sight for the Premier League season with just nine rounds of fixtures between now and its conclusion. There is, however, much we knew about 2024-25 long before we reached its three-quarter mark. Liverpool are almost certainly going to be champions. The promoted trio of Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are likely heading back down to the Championship. Manchester United, West Ham and Tottenham aren’t righting their listing ships anytime soon.

Where the drama lies right now is in the race for Champions League qualification, an even more intriguing battle given that there are likely to be three spots behind Liverpool and Arsenal. Right now anywhere up to eight teams might feel like they have a shot at one of them.

Nottingham Forest have built up quite a lead in third position but does their tally of 54 flatter their performances? Chelsea in fourth have looked like the third best team in the country at their best but that was a while ago. The same is true for Manchester City, who currently sit in fifth. 

Behind them a Newcastle side that will surely be coursing with belief after their EFL Cup triumph and after that a quartet that includes Champions League quarter finalists Aston Villa and three teams few would have expected to be in the mix at this stage of the season. However Brighton, Fulham and Bournemouth have all had their moments this season and are within at least four points of City. There is plenty to play for yet, so let’s go through every game left to play and see who might end the season in the top five.

It should be stated at this juncture that, strictly speaking, the Premier League is only absolutely guaranteed four qualification spots in next season’s Champions League. However the odds of their European representatives failing to deliver a top two coefficient performance, thereby earning their league a further spot at the top table, are vanishingly small. There will almost certainly be at least five English teams playing Champions League football next year, perhaps more if Aston Villa win the competition this year and/or Tottenham or Manchester United win the Europa League.

Gameweek 30

• Arsenal 2, Fulham 1
• Wolves 0, West Ham 1
• Nottingham Forest 2, Manchester United 2
• Bournemouth 2, Ipswich 1
• Brighton 1, Aston Villa 1
• Manchester City 3, Leicester 0
• Newcastle 2, Brentford 1
• Southampton 0, Crystal Palace 2
• Liverpool 1, Everton 0
• Chelsea 2, Tottenham 2

Surely Fulham can’t keep spoiling Arsenal’s day, can they? Assuming that Bukayo Saka’s return spells danger for Marco Silva’s side, they could go slipping down to 10th with Bournemouth looking a good bet to overtake them given their favorable fixture at home to Ipswich. These final weeks could well be dictated by which teams avoid any lower table banana skins and City surely won’t run into one against Leicester.

Chelsea, might, however. Tottenham have rarely found Stamford Bridge to be a happy hunting ground but the team Ange Postecoglou names might only be a Dejan Kulusevski away from Spurs at full strength. They could do some damage.

Gameweek 31

• Everton 1, Arsenal 1
• Crystal Palace 2, Brighton 1
• Ipswich 2, Wolves 0
• West Ham 2, Bournemouth 2
• Aston Villa 3, Nottingham Forest 1
• Brentford 0, Chelsea 0
• Fulham 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Southampton 0
• Manchester United 0, Manchester City 1
• Leicester 0, Newcastle 2

The trip to Villa Park promises to be a pivot point for Nottingham Forest. Win there and they might have built up enough breathing space to shake off any late season wobbles. Lose and they really run the risk of being dragged back into the mulch. A couple of bad results in the next few weeks and Nuno Espirito Santo’s side would be within 10 points off 11th — which it should be noted would still be an excellent spot for them.

These weeks also have the feel of the moment where Newcastle can put their foot to the pedal and carve out a groove for themselves among the higher levels of the top five race.

Gameweek 32

• Manchester City 2, Crystal Palace 1
• Brighton 1, Leicester 0
• Nottingham Forest 2, Everton 0
• Southampton 1, Aston Villa 0
• Arsenal 1, Brentford 0
• Chelsea 3, Ipswich 0
• Liverpool 2, West Ham 1
• Wolves 1, Tottenham 0
• Newcastle 3, Manchester United 1
• Bournemouth 3, Fulham 2

Game in hand

• Newcastle 2, Crystal Palace 2

Given the right results in two tricky away matches, Palace could smash their way into the European picture. It is, however, hard to see Oliver Glasner’s all action side getting much joy at the Etihad Stadium and St. James’ Park. The latter looks a better chance for them given that Newcastle will be coming off just three days’ rest after whatever exertions Manchester United demand of them.

A few other games stand out on this week. Southampton have to win some time, in between a Champions League quarterfinal tie for Aston Villa seems as good a time as any. Meanwhile if Fulham don’t win at Dean Court that is probably it for their hopes of Champions League qualification. Indeed though it is still a little early to start ruling out any of the teams seventh or below, it is starting to look like they will need a fair few favors to bridge a six point gap in as many games.

Predicted partial table on April 17

Gameweek 33

• Brentford 2, Brighton 0
• Crystal Palace 2, Bournemouth 2
• Everton 0, Manchester City 1
• West Ham 1, Southampton 0
• Aston Villa 3, Newcastle 2
• Fulham 0, Chelsea 1
• Ipswich 0, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 2, Wolves 1
• Leicester 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Nottingham Forest 1

A week of two massive games in Champions League terms. Beat Newcastle and Aston Villa open the door, at least a crack, for themselves, Bournemouth and Brighton. Lose and there is a danger that the top six at the start of the week get true separation. Meanwhile can Tottenham have an outsized say in the top five race they would have expected to be in? By expected goal difference they haven’t been a great deal worse than Forest this season. As long as they’re still playing with requisite intensity in the league, they’ll have a chance.

Gameweek 34

• Chelsea 2, Everton 0
• Brighton 2, West Ham 1
• Newcastle 3, Ipswich 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Brentford 0
• Southampton 0, Fulham 0
• Wolves 1, Leicester 2
• Arsenal 1, Crystal Palace 1
• Bournemouth 2, Manchester United 0
• Liverpool 3, Tottenham 1
• Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 0

One of the biggest games of Chelsea’s season so far will be against Everton. Make no mistake in the final four weeks they have one of the most brutal run ins the league has to offer, at home to Liverpool and at Newcastle with eyes already drifting towards what looks like being a fifth placed play off at the City Ground on the final day.

The other major game in this week looks like being at the Etihad, where City could and may well knock Villa out of the top four race (and perhaps even to the peripheries of the European places). Meanwhile if these predictions hold, this would also be the weekend that Liverpool’s Premier League coronation is confirmed.

Gameweek 35

• Manchester City 4, Wolves 1
• Aston Villa 2, Fulham 1
• Brentford 3, Manchester United 1
• Everton 0, Ipswich 1
• Leicester 2, Southampton 1
• West Ham 1, Tottenham 1
• Arsenal 2, Bournemouth 0
• Brighton 2, Newcastle 2
• Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Nottingham Forest 1

This has the look of the day when the field decisively narrows, four teams into three. Indeed there’s a pretty compelling argument that City beating Wolves makes this two into three, opening as it would a four point gap in a week where Newcastle, Chelsea and Forest all have extremely tricky fixtures.

Could anyone else keep their wheels spinning? Brighton certainly might with a win over Newcastle, as would Bournemouth if they won at Arsenal. In reality, though, for teams like these to even be in the Champions League conversation at the 35 game mark is an exceptional achievement. There was only so long they could stay alive.

Predicted partial table on May 5

Gameweek 36

• Bournemouth 2, Aston Villa 2
• Fulham 1, Everton 0
• Ipswich 1, Brentford 1
• Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 1, West Ham 0
• Newcastle 1, Chelsea 1
• Nottingham Forest 1, Leicester 0
• Southampton 0, Manchester City 2
• Tottenham 1, Crystal Palace 2
• Wolves 2, Brighton 1

In the first of what look like two play offs for Champions League qualification across the final three rounds, Newcastle figure as slight favorites, but if Enzo Maresca’s men can just eke out something at St. James’ Park then their fate will remain in their hands, as will that top five berth. Forest, meanwhile, have a couple of prime opportunities to rustle up points at home to Leicester and away to West Ham. That latter game could be trickier than it looks on paper, Nuno’s side rarely look at ease setting the terms of engagement.

Gameweek 37

• Arsenal 1, Newcastle 1
• Aston Villa 1, Tottenham 0
• Brentford 1, Fulham 2
• Brighton 2, Liverpool 2
• Chelsea 3, Manchester United 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Wolves 0
• Everton 2, Southampton 0
• Leicester 1, Ipswich 2
• Manchester City 2, Bournemouth 1
• West Ham 1, Nottingham Forest 1

Well these would be results to put the cat among the pigeons. Newcastle have given Arsenal all sorts of headaches in recent meetings and would reaffirm their bogey team status, just not in a particularly helpful way. Even if Nottingham Forest were then to mirror that result at the London Stadium, it would only allow Chelsea to set themselves up for what the Italians term a biscotto. If Forest and Chelsea were then to play out a draw on the final day then Alexander Isak and company would have to go ballistic on the scoring charts to overhaul the latter. They couldn’t, could they? The internet would explode.

Gameweek 38

• Bournemouth 2, Leicester 1
• Fulham 1, Manchester City 1
• Ipswich 2, West Ham 2
• Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 0
• Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 0
• Newcastle 3, Everton 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Chelsea 2
• Southampton 0, Arsenal 3
• Tottenham 3, Brighton 3
• Wolves 2, Brentford 1

It certainly could be the case that Chelsea and Forest contrive for a draw, but the world’s eyes will be on them and neither manager would want to be seen to be locking Newcastle out of the top six. The last thing the Premier League needs is more lawsuits. Anyway, who is to say that the Magpies don’t start running up the score early on? Everton will have long since donned their flip flops. Perhaps news will filter through to Chelsea. Perhaps they will go for the throat, in so doing leaving avenues for a countering Callum Hudson-Odoi.

That is just one of the many scenarios that might play out but it is hard to see how two serious top five contenders won’t be facing off on the final day of the season. As ever with the Premier League, expect the unexpected.

Predicted final table