As we exit Week 15, there are four AFC teams that have clinched playoff spots. The Kansas City Chiefs once again are AFC West champions, the Houston Texans clinched the AFC South with their win over the Miami Dolphins, the Buffalo Bills already won the AFC East and then the Pittsburgh Steelers are officially in the playoffs despite not clinching the AFC North just yet.
There are three playoff spots remaining in the AFC. Who will get in, and who will be booking trips to Cabo? If you’re looking for AFC playoff projections, you’ve come to the right place. Below, we will discuss the current wild-card contenders, their remaining schedules and percentage chances to make the postseason. First, here are the current division leaders, and those who have already been eliminated.
Playoff simulation percentages via SportsLine
Division leaders
- Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West, 13-1)
- Buffalo Bills (AFC East, 11-3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North, 10-4)
- Houston Texans (AFC South, 9-5)
Eliminated
Wild-card contenders
6. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
I wonder what the “This is our Colts, this is our team” guy was thinking as Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball right before crossing into the end zone on what would have been a 41-yard touchdown on Sunday. Or when Adonai Mitchell threw a pick six off a double pass.
The Colts intercepted Bo Nix three times and still lost by 18 points in Week 15. This loss eliminated Indy from AFC South contention, but their wild-card hopes are still alive. Barely.
Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars
Playoff chances: 6.5%
5. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Same old Dolphins. Since the start of last season, Miami is 1-10 vs. teams that enter the matchup with a winning record, and 16-4 vs. all other teams. Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions in the eight-point loss to the Texans on Sunday after throwing 11 touchdowns and zero picks in the previous four games, while Tyreek Hill caught just two passes for 36 yards. Truth be told, Miami was in this game until the very end, but the two second-half interceptions from Tagovailoa were the deciding factor.
Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
Playoff chances: 4.9%
4. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Yikes, what happened to this Chargers defense on Sunday? L.A. had the No. 1 scoring defense entering Week 15, allowing 15.9 points per game. On Sunday vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Chargers allowed a whopping 40 points. Baker Mayfield threw for 288 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, Bucky Irving ran for 117 yards on 15 carries and Mike Evans exploded with 159 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
Justin Herbert snapped his 11-start streak without an interception, while the Chargers offense recorded just 206 total yards. I think there’s reason to worry about this team’s ceiling. The Chargers have scored just 17 points in three straight games with J.K. Dobbins sidelined.
Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders
Playoff chances: 91.3%
3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
What a weird game we saw in Nashville this past week. Titans vs. Bengals was the first game in NFL history to feature 10 combined turnovers and 26 combined penalties. The 10 turnovers are the most in a game since 2007, and the 26 penalties the most since 2021. Joe Burrow did not have his best outing, throwing two interceptions along with three touchdowns, but he also had some incredible plays where he danced around in the backfield, avoiding the Titans pass rush to eventually deliver a strike downfield.
The Bengals defense forced a whopping six turnovers and may have ended the Will Levis era, as he was benched for Mason Rudolph in the third quarter after committing four turnovers. Geno Stone had a pick six, then Jordan Battle almost had a 61-yard fumble return touchdown before he lost the ball short of the goal line.
The Bengals are still one of the most explosive teams in the NFL, but their playoff chances aren’t looking good.
Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers
Playoff chances: 4.5%
2. Denver Broncos (9-5)
Sunday’s matchup vs. the Colts started off terribly for the Broncos, but Denver rebounded and won by double digits. I think this team deserves credit for that. In fact, the Broncos became the first team this season to win by double digits while recording fewer than 200 yards of total offense. Denver has now won four straight games by at least nine points, and is tied with the Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles in having the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL (17.6 points allowed per game).
Sean Payton can’t be happy with Nix’s career-high three interceptions, but this could be a learning experience for the first-year signal-caller.
Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs
Playoff chances: 93.0%
1. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
The Ravens recorded their fifth game this season with 250 passing yards and 170 rushing yards on Sunday, which is tied for the most by any team since 1940. At the same time, let’s not make too much of this blowout against the lowly Giants.
Lamar Jackson built on his MVP case, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards and five passing touchdowns, but I’m curious to see what this team can do in a rematch with the Steelers on Saturday.
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Read the full article here
