Major League Baseball’s regular season is just around the bend. That means, among other things, it’s time to get in all those last-minute pieces of spring prognostication.
Last week, CBS Sports highlighted the 2024 playoff teams likeliest to miss this year’s tournament. Today, it’s time to perform the inverse of that exercise, looking at which non-playoff teams from last year look best positioned to crack this year’s tournament. On average, about half the playoff field turns over each season, so it’s reasonable to think that five or six clubs who didn’t make it in 2024 will find themselves playing this October.
With that in mind, below you’ll find all 18 non-playoff teams tiered and ranked in accordance to their perceived postseason chances. As always, this exercise is more of an art than a science, and that there are a variety of factors that go into each ranking — including how good a team looks on paper at present; their chances of improving internally through promotions; and the quality of their division rivals.
With all that fine print out of the way, let’s get down to business.
Tier 4: Maybe next year… or the years after that
18. Miami Marlins
Everyone knew what was going to happen when Peter Bendix took over as Miami’s head of baseball operations. He was going to raze the roster and embark on a long-term rebuild to mold the organization in his image, all the while “failing efficiently” at the big-league level. Only time will tell if Bendix succeeds in his mission, but for now it’s apparent the Marlins have zero regard for their on-the-field product. This team looks poor on paper and it might only get worse throughout the season as Bendix inevitably moves Sandy Alcantara and any other veteran with trade value.
17. Chicago White Sox
Probabilistic analysis states the White Sox have to be better than they were last year, when they recorded the worst season in modern MLB history by losing 121 games. Of course, that means the White Sox could take a significant step forward while still threatening to lose 100 games. If nothing else, first-year skipper Will Venable won’t have to worry about the burden of high expectations.
16. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have recorded the only two 100-loss seasons in franchise history in back-to-back years. It’s possible they complete the hat trick. While they have some fun young players in tow, they’re stuck in a brutal division and with a roster that, on the whole, is far too short on impact talent.
Tier 3: Probably not, but thanks for trying
15. Los Angeles Angels
It seems obvious that the Angels were inspired by last year’s Royals squad. They obtained a slew of veterans (including Yusei Kikuchi and Jorge Soler), no doubt hoping that the upgrades will be enough for them to threaten a winning record for the first time since 2015. Will it work? Eh, doubtful. The best the Angels can hope for is that Mike Trout remains healthier than he has in years, thanks in part to moving away from center field and ostensibly saving himself some wear and tear in the process.
14. Athletics
The A’s threw some money around this winter through acquisitions (Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs) and extensions (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker) in an attempt to stave off grievances from the MLBPA and other owners concerning their revenue-sharing money. Keep in mind, they’ll be playing their home games for the next few years in a minor-league park in West Sacramento. It’s an extreme pitcher’s park that could lend itself to some unexpected outcomes. Even with that in mind, this doesn’t look like a team that’s too likely to make a serious run at the postseason.
13. San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey’s first winter in charge saw the Giants add shortstop Willy Adames and right-hander Justin Verlander to their ranks. San Francisco has been stuck between 79 and 81 wins in each of the past three seasons. That feels like about where this club is destined to fall, too. There are worse fates. There are better ones too, though, and the Giants are a couple pieces short of experiencing them.
Tier 2: If things break right
12. Washington Nationals
The Nationals have the making of an impressive position player core, led by outfielders Dylan Crews and James Wood. Washington opted against making a big splash this offseason to augment that core, and it’s reasonable to wonder if that’ll prove costly. It doesn’t help the Nationals’ chances that they seem destined for fourth place in the tough National League East.
11. Cincinnati Reds
Terry Francona is now at the helm for a Reds team that hasn’t made the playoffs during a full season since 2013. The Reds didn’t exactly go all-out this winter, meaning that Francona will have to get the most from his internal options in order to break the drought. There’s certainly a chance that proves to be the case, but it’s probably more realistic to think the Reds still need more help to get over the hump.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
Coming into the offseason, it appeared that the Pirates just needed a few more bats to take advantage of a rotation fronted by Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller. (Bubba Chandler should join that group sometime soon, too.) Unfortunately, the story looks like it’ll remain the same in 2025 following a winter that saw the Pirates make few notable additions to their lineup. It’s possible that Skenes and company are up to the challenge anyway, but it’s hard to rank Pittsburgh much higher than this.
9. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are stuck in a minor-league park after Tropicana Field’s domed roof was damaged by a hurricane. That’s too bad because this is a decent roster with the chance to experience some internal growth thanks to a promising rotation and young infielders Junior Caminero and Carson Williams (the latter of whom ought to debut at some point this summer). The Rays do tend to overperform expectations, but things are going to be tricky because of the competitiveness of the AL East.
8. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed like obvious sellers entering the offseason, making it more than a little surprising that they didn’t do anything of note other than wave bye-bye to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in free agency. As such, this is mostly the same group that won 83 games last season, just a year older across the board. The Cardinals do have some interesting young players on the cusp, making it possible that this proves to be a misrank in either direction.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
As mentioned with the Rays above, the AL East looks fierce on paper. That, plus the chances the Blue Jays move Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette at the deadline if they aren’t in the thick of the playoff hunt, make us naturally discount their odds of rebounding and making the postseason. At the same time, there is some reason for optimism. Toronto almost has to get more mileage from Bichette than it did last season, and the roster should be improved after a winter that featured the additions of Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman.
6. Minnesota Twins
There’s an argument to be made that the Twins are the favorites to win the AL Central. Unfortunately, it’s tough to feel secure in that stance because of how often Minnesota’s best players find themselves on the injured list. It’s to be seen if the franchise is sold ahead of Opening Day as previously expected. If not, who knows how that’ll impact the Twins’ ability to add payroll at the trade deadline.
Tier 1: The five strongest cases
5. Texas Rangers
Some projection models have the Rangers favored to win the AL West. We can see the argument, but we have enough reservations about this group to not rank them higher than fifth. A lot hinges on ace Jacob deGrom’s availability after being limited to just over 100 frames combined in the last three seasons. There’s some risk here with how many of Texas’ core pieces — Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Adolis García — are now in their age-31 or older seasons, too. Still, Texas would seem to have a real chance of securing its first division crown since 2016.
4. Seattle Mariners
Again, if you go off some forecasts, the Mariners and Rangers should be swapped on this list. (Especially if you’re pessimistic in light of George Kirby’s shoulder inflammation.) We’re giving the Mariners the nod here because we think they have the greater capacity for internal growth. They have one of the best farm systems in baseball, with a chance to graduate a few notable youngsters this season (including infielder Cole Young and catcher/outfielder Harry Ford), and a number of their hitters seem likely to enjoy positive regression after disappointing seasons last year.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks had to rank highly here. They found themselves on the wrong side of a tiebreaker last season, preventing them from entering the postseason with a chance to defend their 2023 pennant victory. They responded to missing out on the tournament by signing Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner who should give them a strong rotation. If there’s a drawback for Arizona, it’s the division. The NL West has two other serious playoff threats, in the Dodgers and the Padres, and it’s possible the Diamondbacks end up on the wrong side of the ledger against those teams just often enough to cost them a spot — look no further than last season, when they went 12-14 against those two teams. Even so, you have to feel pretty good about the D-backs’ chances of finding redemption in 2025.
2. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox look like a team on the rise. They had an impressive offseason, landing lefty Garrett Crochet, righty Walker Buehler, and second baseman Alex Bregman, and they have three of the 10 best prospects in the game, including outfielder Roman Anthony and utility player Kristian Campbell, to call upon as the season burns on. There are two reasons why they’re not No. 1 here: 1) the division they play in is awfully tough; and 2) there is more downside risk with Crochet and Buehler than often gets acknowledged. (Remember, Buehler had a dismal regular season last year, and Crochet threw just 73 innings between his 2020 debut season and 2023 before last year’s breakout.) We fully expect the Red Sox to be in the thick of the playoff hunt, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they win the AL East. We just couldn’t give them the top spot here.
Instead, that honor goes to …
1. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs had a disappointing season in 2024, winning 83 games and finishing 10 back in the NL Central despite entering the year as one of the favorites. Nevertheless, we’re buying in that things will be different in 2025. They added one of the top dozen best players in the sport in star outfielder Kyle Tucker, along with a slew of other additions (ranging from Justin Tucker to Matthew Boyd and Ryan Pressly) that should have them pointed in the right direction. Depending on how you feel about the rest of the division, Chicago could find itself competing with just one other team (the Milwaukee Brewers) for the top spot. That gives the Cubs a leg up on some other teams on this list, and it’s enough for us to proclaim them as the non-playoff team from last year most likely to crack October.
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