Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I hope you enjoyed this quiet week around the NFL because things could get chaotic as soon as next week. First of all, the NFL Scouting Combine will be starting with the first batch of players reporting to Indianapolis on Sunday, but don’t get too excited about that because testing won’t start until Thursday. (You can check out our primer on the combine here.)
After the combine, we’ll be heading straight into free agency, and after that we’ll be heading straight into the draft and then we’ll be at the schedule release and then suddenly the offseason will be over and I’m going to stop now, because I think I’m getting way ahead of myself.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Final 2024 grades for all 32 teams
USATSI
After handing out grades during EVERY week of the regular season, we’re back for one more round of grades. With the Super Bowl officially in the rearview mirror, Bryan DeArdo figured that now would be a good time to go back and grade EVERY single team on its 2024 season.
I’m not going to spoil every grade, but I can tell you that the Eagles got an “A+”.
Now that I’ve spoiled Philadelphia’s grade, I’m going to go ahead and spoil things again by revealing four more grades that DeArdo handed out.
- Broncos (10-7): A-. “Denver’s 2024 season started with some criticism after the team paid Russell Wilson $39 million to play for the Steelers. Few people were discussing that by season’s end, however, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix enjoyed an exceptional campaign while helping the Broncos snap their nine-year playoff drought.”
- Rams (10-7): B+. “The Rams dismantled the Vikings (who had gone 14-3 in the regular season) in the wild-card round before giving the eventual champion Eagles everything they could handle in the divisional round. The catalyst for the Rams’ success was quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams, NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse and a young secondary that continued to improve as the season progressed.”
- Bengals (9-8): D+. “Cincinnati missing the playoffs in 2023 was understandable given Burrow’s absence. But there was no excuse for missing the postseason again in 2024 with Burrow and wideout Ja’Marr Chase playing at MVP levels. The defense improved during the five-game winning streak, but its porous play during the first 12 games cost the Bengals a playoff spot.”
- Cowboys (7-10): F. “The Cowboys’ 2024 offseason was dominated by contract talk, and the 2024 regular season was dominated by losing football games. Doomed from the start, Dallas’ flawed roster had no chance at contending for a playoff spot once Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending injury in Week 9.”
DeArdo graded all 32 teams and you can check out every single one of those grades here.
2. Breaking down the QB Market: Where the top available quarterbacks might end up
Although Sam Darnold could end being the top quarterback to hit free agency, he definitely won’t be the only experienced QB on the market.
This year’s free agent class of quarterbacks isn’t going to blow anyone away, but there are still some big names in it, so Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at those names and take a stab at where they might end up. Not only does Cody’s list include every QB who’s going to be a free agent, but he also included quarterbacks who are expected to hit free agency like Kirk Cousins.
Let’s take a look at the some of the top names on his list along with a few possible landing spots:
1. Sam Darnold
Logical fits: Giants, Jets, Raiders, Vikings
Cody’s prediction: Signs with Raiders
2. Justin Fields
Logical fits: Browns, Jets, Raiders, Steelers
Cody’s prediction: Signs with Steelers
3. Aaron Rodgers
Best fits: Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Vikings
Cody’s prediction: Signs with Titans
4. Russell Wilson
Best fits: Giants, Raiders, Steelers
Cody’s prediction: Signs with Giants
5. Kirk Cousins
Best fits: Browns, Colts, Jets
Cody’s prediction: Signs with Browns
If you want to check out Cody’s entire story on free agent quarterbacks, then be sure to click here.
3. Ranking the top 25 offensive free agents
In less than three weeks, things should be getting crazy around the NFL and that’s because the league’s free agency period will be kicking off on March 12. The first 24 hours of free agency are usually pretty wild and that’s because that time frame is usually when we see the biggest names go off the board.
So who are the biggest names this year? Glad you asked.
Our Jared Dubin ranked the top 25 offensive free agents. Last week, we went over Pete Prisco’s top 100 free agents, but I promise you, this isn’t that.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at Dubin’s top 10 offensive free agents (We’ll list the player, plus the team they played for last season). One thing you’ll notice about the top 10 is that, except for one spot, it’s all wide receivers and offensive linemen.
1. WR Tee Higgins (Bengals)
2. OG Trey Smith (Chiefs)
3. WR Chris Godwin (Buccaneers)
4. OT Ronnie Stanley (Ravens)
5. QB Sam Darnold (Vikings)
6. WR Stefon Diggs (Texans)
7. C Drew Dalman (Falcons)
8. OG Will Fries (Colts)
9. OT Cam Robinson (Vikings)
10. OT Alaric Jackson (Rams).
If you want to see Dubin’s entire top 25 rankings, then be sure to click here.
4. Salary cap expected to see a massive increase for 2025 season
Before free agency can start, the NFL has to set the salary cap for the 2025 season and teams around the league got some good news on Wednesday and that good news is that the cap is expected to undergo a massive increase.
- Cap will be increasing by more than $20 million over last season. The 2025 salary cap hasn’t officially been set yet, but the number will fall somewhere in the range of $277.5 million and $281.5 million, the NFL revealed in a memo sent out to teams on Wednesday. Even if it ends up being on the low end of that range, it will still be more than $20 million higher than the 2024 salary cap, which was set at $255.1 million. In 2023, the salary cap was $224.8 million, which means it will have gone up more than $50 million over the past two years. The official cap number will be released at some point before the start of free agency.
- This number is higher than anyone was expecting. Back in December, the NFL’s 32 teams were told that the cap would likely fall somewhere between $265 million and $275 million for the 2025, so they’ve been using those numbers for planning purposes. With the cap now set to be at least $277.5 million, every team has a lot more room to work with.
- Teams that are likely thrilled with this news. Although a higher cap is good news for everyone, there are several teams that were likely celebrating this news. The Saints and Browns are both more than $20 million OVER the salary cap, so getting a few extra million to work with is definitely a good thing. All teams have to be salary cap compliant by the start of free agency on March 12. The expanded cap space should help a team like the Bengals, who now have some extra cap room, which should help them get deals done with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson.
You can read more about the 2025 salary cap here.
5. Deebo Samuel trade scenarios: Three deals that could make sense
Getty Images
With Deebo Samuel officially on the trade market, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at what kind of offer several teams might make to land the 49ers star.
Let’s check out a few trade scenarios:
Deebo to the Steelers
- 49ers get: 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 122)
- Steelers get: Deebo Samuel
Sullivan’s take: It’s no secret the Steelers are in the market for a wide receiver. In fact, these two teams nearly executed a deal for Brandon Aiyuk last season, reportedly agreeing to the parameters of the trade before the receiver decided to say with San Francisco. While that deal didn’t work out, it showed that the two sides are quite comfortable negotiating, so why not pick the phone back up?”
Deebo to the Broncos
- 49ers get: 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 120)
- Broncos get: Deebo Samuel
Sullivan’s take: Samuel may have his eyes set on the Broncos, judging how the receiver spoke about the organization earlier this offseason. He told Bleacher Report that Denver could be a team on the rise but needs “a couple more pieces” to take the next step.
Deebo to the Patriots
- 49ers get: 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 107)
- Patriots get: Deebo Samuel
Sullivan’s take: The fourth-round pick is a popular price tag for Samuel as it mirrors prior deals that we use as a baseline in these hypothetical trades. For instance, the Bears traded a fourth-round pick (No. 110) to the Los Angeles Chargers last offseason to acquire receiver Keenan Allen. So, we have the Patriots following suit by shipping out their fourth-rounder to land Samuel, a player who has been on the team’s radar dating to when he first came into the league.
You can check out Sullivan’s full story here.
6. Extra points: Eagles have a new offensive coordinator
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Eagles hire new offensive coordinator by promoting from within. Kevin Patullo, who served as the Eagles’ pass game coordinator and associate head coach in 2024, has been promoted to offensive coordinator. Patullo takes the spot of Kellen Moore, who got hired to coach the Saints. Patullo has been working with Eagles coach Nick Sirianni since 2018 when the two guys were on the same coaching staff in Indianapolis. You can read more about Patullo’s hiring here. This will mark the sixth straight season that Jalen Hurts has had a new play caller in the NFL, which is something we broke down here.
- Saints also hire a new offensive coordinator. Eagles QB coach Doug Nussmeier will be following Kellen Moore to New Orleans. Nussmeier has been hired as the new offensive coordinator for the Saints, according to NFL.com. Nussmeier was an assistant coach with the Cowboys (2018-22) and QB coach for the Chargers (2023) before taking a job with the Eagles in 2024. Moore and Nussmeier were together on the same coaching staff in Dallas and Los Angeles, so they’ll now be heading into their eighth season together.
- Jameson Williams won’t be punished by NFL. The Lions receiver was carrying an unlicensed gun during a traffic stop in October, but he won’t be facing any league punishment for the incident, according to ESPN. Authorities in Michigan made the decision in November not to press any charges and after that happened, it became unlikely that Williams would face any punishment from the NFL.
- 49ers owners could sell part of the team. The 49ers are exploring the option of selling a minority stake in the team. According to Bloomberg, the team is looking to possibly sell up to 10% of the franchise at a valuation of $9 billion, which means the 49ers will be looking for someone who’s willing to pay $900 million for the 10% stake. The York family currently owns 97% of the team with Jed York serving as the principal owner.
- FBI makes arrests in high-profile home burglary cases. Seven men have been charged over the recent crime wave that targeted the homes of several superstar athletes, including Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Joe Burrow. The seven Chileans, who are allegedly part of a South American crime syndicate, are being accused of stealing more than $2 million in goods. You can read more about the case here.
Read the full article here