Ravens may have wasted their best shot at a Super Bowl, plus breaking down every divisional playoff game

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! 

There are only four teams left standing in the NFL, and just like we all predicted before the season, the Washington Commanders are one of them. Just kidding, no one predicted that. Not even Commanders fans. The conference title games will feature three teams — the Chiefs, Eagles and Bills — who have all made it to the a conference championship at least once in the past five years.

On the other hand, the Commanders are going to be partying like it’s 1991 because that’s how long it’s been since their last conference title game appearance. 

Speaking of the conference title games, we’ll be taking an early look at those in this newsletter. Plus, we’ll be breaking down the divisional round, and we’ll also be doing some overreactions and reality checks. Let’s get to the rundown. 

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1. Breaking down the divisional round: Commanders pull off the only upset of the weekend

Since things got kind of crazy over the weekend, we thought it would make sense to at least take a brief look at what happened in each game, so that’s what we’re going to do here. For the second straight week, the Commanders were the only lower-seeded team to win. Let’s take a look at the games, starting with the Chiefs’ victory on Saturday: 

• (1) Chiefs 23-14 over (4) Texans. Once the playoffs start, the Chiefs always seem to find a way to win. Their offense got out-gained (337-230) and their defense couldn’t stop the Texans on third down (Houston went 10 of 17), but the Chiefs continuously came up with big plays whenever they needed one. Travis Kelce had his biggest game of the year with seven catches for 117 yards on a day where Patrick Mahomes threw for just 177 yards, which means Kelce came up with 66% of that total. Defensively, Kansas City beat up on C.J. Stroud, who got sacked eight times. The Chiefs’ pass rush was led by George Karlaftis, who had three sacks. As for the Texans, this game was a special teams disaster with two missed field goals and a 63-yard return allowed on the opening kickoff. With the Chiefs’ win, Mahomes is now 7-0 in the divisional round in his career. You can check out our full takeaways from the game here. 
• (6) Commanders 45-31 over (1) Lions.  Jayden Daniels is slowly etching his name into NFL history. No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to the Super Bowl and Daniels just took one step closer by playing a nearly perfect game in Washington’s huge upset win over the Lions. The rookie QB threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 51 yards. The Commanders defense also came up big by forcing five turnovers, including a pick-six by Quan Martin in the first half that put Washington in total control of the game. The Commanders are now headed to the NFC title game for the first time in 33 years. As for the Lions, a big reason they lost is because Jared Goff had a total meltdown with three interceptions and a lost fumble. We’ve got quite a few takeaways from this game, and you can see them here. 
• (2) Eagles 28-22 over (4) Rams. Saquon Barkley put the Eagles on his back and carried them to the NFC title game. The Eagles running back ran for 205 yards and two touchdowns, including a 78-yard scoring run in the fourth quarter that put Philly up 28-15. Barkley’s rushing total was the fifth-highest ever in NFL postseason history. Despite trailing by 13 points in the final three minutes, the Rams actually made this a game. After scoring a quick touchdown, they got the ball back and then drove down to Philadelphia’s 13-yard line in the final 90 seconds with a shot to score a potential game-winning touchdown, but the drive ended with a fourth-down incompletion by Matthew Stafford, sending the Eagles to the NFC title game. For more on Philadelphia’s wild win, be sure to click here. 
• (2) Bills 27-25 over (3) Ravens. It might not be fair to say the Ravens choked in this game, but it does feel like they gave it away. The two biggest gaffes came from Mark Andrews: Not only did he lose a pivotal fumble in the second half, but he also DROPPED a two-point conversion pass that would have tied the game at 27 with 1:33 left to play. Andrews’ drop came after Lamar Jackson had driven the Ravens 88 yards on just eight plays before hitting Isaiah Likely for a 24-yard touchdown. Although Jackson was clutch on the drive, he did struggle at times in the game and that mostly came during a first half where he turned the ball over twice with an interception and a fumble. Jackson has now had at least two turnovers in four of his eight career playoff games. If you want to read our takeaways from Buffalo’s win, you can check out our full story here. 

That leaves us with four teams left standing: 

• The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. 
• The Bills are gunning to win a Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
• The Eagles and Commanders will be giving us our first NFC Championship with two NFC East teams since 1986.   

After a wild-card round where five of the six games weren’t very exciting, the divisional round came through with four wild games. 

2. Overreactions from the divisional round: Did the Ravens waste their best shot at a Super Bowl? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the NFL playoffs. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL during the divisional round to decide if we’re all overreacting. 

Statement: Ravens wasted their best chance to win a Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “This was the Ravens’ best chance to win the Super Bowl with Jackson, and that includes last season when they were the No. 1 seed and hosted the AFC Championship game. Jackson was the best quarterback in the league this season and had a dominant running game alongside him, along with a defense getting better by the week (held the Bills to 273 yards). Turnovers ended the Ravens season, the mistakes Baltimore always seems to make in January. They can’t get out of their own way.”

Statement: Jayden Daniels is having the best postseason ever for a rookie QB. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “Daniels is the first player since the 1970 merger with 250+ passing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in each of his first two playoff games. He’s the third player with 500+ passing yards, 75+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns and zero interceptions through the first two games of a postseason — joining Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Commanders are in the conference championship game for the first time in 33 years because of Daniels, playing like a top-five quarterback in Year 1.”

Statement: Lions’ Super Bowl window is closed. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. “The Lions will lose some key coaches — with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn most likely gone — so they’ll take a hit there. The core of this team with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Penei Sewell are back. Aidan Hutchinson and many other key defensive starters will be healthy as well (the Lions had six defensive starters on injured reserve and 16 total players). There are some questions about whether Goff is good enough to win this team a Super Bowl, but this team will be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025. The window is not closed yet.” Note: We actually did a deep dive into whether the Lions’ Super bowl window might be closing, and if you want to know the answer to that, we’ve got it here. Dan Campbell said Monday that he expects to lose both of his coordinators, so the Lions will be starting from scratch there. 

We’ve got overreactions from the Saturday games that you can check out here. If you want the overreactions from the two Sunday games, we’ve got those here. 

3. Winners and losers from the divisional round

You can’t have a week of NFL action without having some winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. 

Bryan DeArdo and Jordan Dajani teamed up to come up with this week’s list, so let’s check it out below.

WINNERS

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. “Barkley rushed 26 times for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Those 205 rushing yards are the fifth-most in a playoff game all-time and marked Barkley’s second 200-yard rushing game of the season. Both came against the Rams. This is notable because Philadelphia will host the rival Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship game. Washington finished the regular season with the third-worst rushing defense in the NFL (137.5 rushing yards allowed per game).”
• Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. “As was the case all year, Kingsbury wasn’t afraid to put the game on Daniels’ shoulders on several big possession downs. And unlike last week, Kingsbury’s offense established much-needed balance, as the Commanders ran for 183 yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries. All told, the Commanders’ 45 points were the most in franchise history for a road playoff game.”

LOSERS

• Ravens TE Mark Andrews. “To say Andrews had a nightmare fourth quarter would be an understatement. With the Ravens trailing by two points and approaching enemy territory, Andrews fumbled away possession after the ball was punched out by Terrel Bernard. …. At the end of the game, the Ravens needed a two-point conversion to tie things up, so Todd Monken gave Andrews a chance at redemption. He did not take advantage of it. (You can see his drop here).”
• Officiating. “Unfortunately, questionable officiating was one of the main takeaways during and after the Chiefs’ win. Several questionable calls were made against the Texans that included multiple unnecessary roughness penalties against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. One of those penalties drew the ire of Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, who was on the call for ESPN.”

If you want to see our full list of winners and losers from Saturday’s games, be sure to go here. If you want to see our list of winners and losers from Sunday, we have those here. 

4. 14 crazy stats from the divisional round

Every Sunday night I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. 

With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts from the divisional round: 

1. Commanders end record drought. The Commanders are headed to the NFC title game for the first time since 1991. They went 33 seasons between trips, which is tied with the Bengals for the longest drought in NFL history. The Commanders also became just the third team to reach a conference title game after losing 13 games or more in the prior season, joining the 2006 Saints and 2017 Jaguars. 
2. Jayden Daniels is breaking rookie records. Daniels has now led the Commanders to 14 wins this season, which is tied with Ben Roethlisberger for the most-ever by a rookie QB. Daniels also tied Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco for the most road playoff wins (two) by a rookie QB in NFL history. Daniels is set to become just the sixth rookie to start a conference title game, joining Shaun King, Brock Purdy, Roethlisberger, Flacco and Sanchez. With a win over the Eagles, Daniels would become the first rookie QB to lead his team to the Super Bowl. 
3. NFC title game drought. With the Commanders advancing to the NFC Championship, that means there is only one NFC team that has yet to make it to the NFC title game this century: the Dallas Cowboys (1995)
4. Chiefs headed back to AFC Championship. The Chiefs are headed to the AFC title game for the seventh straight season, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history, trailing on the Patriots, who made it in eight straight seasons from 2011 to 2018.  
5. Chiefs going for a three-peat. No team in NFL history has ever won three straight Super Bowls. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs are just the fourth team ever to be on the cusp of winning a third straight title. The 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers, 1994 Cowboys all lost in the conference title round while trying to win their third straight Super Bowl, which means the Chiefs could become the first two-time defending champion to make it to the Super Bowl if they can beat the Bills. 
6. Chiefs cans still count on Kelce. Travis Kelce caught seven passes for 117 yards, marking the ninth time he’s topped 100 yards in his postseason career. That moves him past Jerry Rice for the most 100-yard receiving games in NFL playoff history. 
7. Chiefs invent new way to win. The Chiefs got outgained by more than 100 yards and they didn’t force a turnover, but they still won, marking the first time that’s ever happened in NFL playoff history. Going into the divisional round, NFL teams were 0-49 when being outgained by at least 100 yards while also forcing zero turnovers. 
8. Josh Allen can’t get to the big game. With Buffalo’s win over the Ravens, Allen now has seven career playoffs wins, which is the most by any QB in NFL history without a Super Bowl appearance.
9. Lamar Jackson can’t win any big games. Jackson is one just 10 quarterbacks in NFL history who have won the MVP at least twice. Of that group, Jackson is the ONLY one with a losing record in the playoffs and the only one without at least one Super Bowl ring. 
10. Saquon steamrolls the Rams. Saquon Barkley finished with 205 rushing yards against the Rams, which is the fifth-best single-game performance in NFL history. The record is held by Eric Dickerson, who rushed for 248 yards in the 1985 wild-card round while playing for the Rams. 
11. Lions crash and burn. The Lions became just the second 15-win team in NFL history to get knocked out of the playoffs in their first game. The Lions joined the 2011 Packers, who lost in the divisional round after going 15-1. 
12. NFC North crashes and burns. The NFC North teams finished with the best record of any division in NFL history, but that didn’t help them in the playoffs. The division went 0-3 marking just the second time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 that a division sent three teams to the playoffs without winning a game (1982 AFC Central). 
13. High-priced quarterbacks crash-and-burn. The three highest paid quarterbacks in the playoffs were Jordan Love ($55 million per year) Jared Goff ($53 million) and Justin Herbert (52.5 million).  They ended up going 0-3 with a combined 10 interceptions. 
14. Failure is not an option on fourth down. There were only five teams in the NFL that converted more than 68% of their fourth downs this year and four of them are still alive in the playoffs. Here’s a look at the top teams at fourth-down conversions, including their playoff numbers: Commanders (81.3% conversion rate), Bills (76%), Eagles (72.4%), Lions (68.6%), Chiefs (68.4%).

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

5. Early odds for AFC and NFC title games

We’ll be covering the AFC and NFC title games here all week, so I won’t dive into these two games very much today. That being said, I didn’t want to completely ignore them, so here are the early odds for each game. Not surprisingly, the two home teams are favored. Both games are rematches from earlier this season. 

Sunday, Jan. 26
(6) Commanders at (2) Eagles, 3 p.m. ET (Fox)
Current point spread: Eagles -5.5

The Eagles are hosting the NFC title game for the third time in eight seasons, and they’ll be facing a Commanders team they’re very familiar with. The two division rivals faced each other twice this season with each team winning at home. Back in Week 11, the Eagles topped the Commanders, 26-18, in a Thursday night game that was actually more of a blowout. (The Eagles led, 26-10, before Washington scored in the final 30 seconds.) The Commanders got their revenge during a wild Week 16 game where Washington came out on top, 36-33. However, Jalen Hurts went down with an injury in the first quarter and didn’t play the rest of the game. This game will mark the first time since 1991 that the Commanders have played in an NFC title game and Jayden Daniels will be looking to become the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to the Super Bowl. The matchup to watch in this game will be Saquon Barkley against Washington’s defense. Barkley led the NFL in rushing this year while the Commanders surrendered the third-most rushing yards in the NFL. 

One thing to watch this week will be the health of Jalen Hurts: The Eagles quarterback banged up his knee Sunday, and right now, it’s not clear how serious it is. 

Sunday, Jan. 26
(2) Bills at (1) Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Current point spread: Chiefs -1.5

For the fourth time in five years, the Bills and Chiefs are meeting in the postseason. Although Buffalo has dominated the Chiefs in the regular season with four straight wins, including this year, the opposite has taken place in the postseason. Josh Allen and the Bills have faced the Chiefs three times in the playoffs and gone 0-3 in those games. When the Bills beat the Chiefs, 30-21, earlier this season, that game was played in Buffalo, but this time around, the two teams will be meeting in Kansas City. Home-field advantage could mean a lot in this game with the Chiefs going 9-0 at home this year and the Bills going just 5-4 on the road. 

You can check out our full story on the early odds for both games here.

6. Extra points: Matthew Stafford mulling his future over

It’s been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Matthew Stafford noncommittal to football return. After losing to the Eagles on Sunday, the Rams quarterback said he would “take some time” to mull his future over. That being said, it sounds like Stafford is leaning toward returning in 2025. You can read his full comments here. 
• Falcons hire a defensive coordinator. Former Jets interim coach Jeff Ulbrich is heading to Atlanta. The Falcons officially hired Ulbrich as their defensive coordinator over the weekend. Ulbrich is returning to Atlanta where he spent six seasons as an assistant coach (2015-20) before taking the Jets defensive coordinator job in 2021. You can check out more details on the hiring here. 
• Bears wanted to make trade for Mike Tomlin. The Bears actually called up the Steelers about possibly making a trade for Mike Tomlin, but Pittsburgh ended the talks before they even started. The Bears are clearly doing their due diligence with their search. You can read more about their pursuit of Tomlin here. 
• Commanders guard tears his ACL. For the most part, the four conference title teams made it through the weekend without suffering any serious injuries, but the Commanders did sustain a big one. Right guard Sam Cosmi tore his ACL on Saturday and is done of the season. That’s a brutal injury for the Commanders to suffer with the Eagles defensive line on deck. You can read more about Cosmi’s injury here.