Red Sox adding Alex Bregman to lineup: Contract details, fantasy expectations for 2019 MVP Runner-Up

There was one more big name on the market. One name who would represent a massive upgrade to a roster and excite fanbases; with all due respect to a handful of other players still on the market.

That player has finally made his choice, and he’s joining the organization that seemed like the best fit for him since the start of free agency.

According to Rome, the contract is a three-year deal for $120 million. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Bregman can opt out of the agreement in both 2025 and 2026, and that there will be deferred money; with the amount being deferred unknown at the time of publication.

Let’s take a look at what type of player the Red Sox are getting, and whether or not he’ll be worthy of an early pick for fantasy players in 2025.

How good has Alex Bregman been over his career?

The Astros made Bregman the second pick of the 2015 MLB Draft out of LSU, and he was one of the best collegiate hitters of this century while a member of the Tigers. It didn’t take him long to be a contributor for the Astros as he reached the majors just one year later while forging a .791 OPS over 49 games in his rookie season.

That was just a taste of the type of player Bregman would become, however. His sophomore campaign saw him swat 19 homers and hit .284, the infielder would have a two-year run that put him with the elite players in baseball. He finished 2018 with 31 bombs and a .926 OPS, and then was the MVP runner-up in 2019 with a slash of .296/.423/.592, 41 homers and 112 RBI while leading baseball with 8.9 Wins Above Replacement according to Baseball-Reference.

Bregman has continued to be a solid player since, but the numbers have paled in comparison. From 2020 to 2023 he slashed .261/.361/.443 while white averaging 17 homers (note: that number is skewed by the 2020 season being only 60 games because of the pandemic), and it’s worth pointing out that the 2024 was arguably his worst season at the plate. He hit .260/.315/.443 in what ended up being his final campaign with the Astros with a career-worst .768 OPS despite 26 homers.

Simply put, Bregman has two years of being one of the best hitters in the sport, but since those impressive outputs, he’s been a good — but not great — player from a fantasy perspective.

Are there elite tools at Bregman’s disposal?

Bregman’s approach has been one of the best in all of baseball, and one of the best might be an understatement. Last year was a downer in that regard as you could probably guess by looking at his on-base percentage, but he swung at pitches outside of the strike zone just 23.6 percent of the time, so his ability to recognize offerings and lay off them remains strong. His career walk rate of 11.9 percent puts him in the upper-echelon of active hitters, and he’s a good bet to bounce back in that regard in 2025.

And unlike many hitters who draw a good deal of free passes. Bregman does it without swinging and missing. He’s never struck out 100 times in a season, and he has four full seasons where he’s drawn more walks than punchouts. Last year was not one of those seasons, but he fanned only 86 times in 634 plate appearances with an elite whiff rate of 12.8 percent and strikeout percentage of 13.6. And while Bregman hasn’t been a dominant offensive player outside of 2018 and 2019, he has been an excellent option with the glove. In 2024 he was one of the best defenders at third base while ranking in the 91st percentile in Outs Above Average, and he’s been worth at least a win above replacement defensively — not an easy figure to get to — according to Baseball-Reference over the last two seasons. That keeps Bregman in the lineup, and obviously helps those counting stats.

What are Bregman’s weaknesses?

Truthfully, it’s not so much that Bregman has weaknesses, it’s that nothing else comes close to being well above-average from the offensive standpoint.

Bregman has lost bat speed, and that’s played a factor in barreling the baseball. He ranked in the 34th percentile in barrel rate in 2024 at 6.4 percent, and his bat speed was measured at 71.4 mph; a figure that put him in the 41st percentile. Because he recognizes pitches so well he still squares up the baseball at an exceptional rate — his 36 percent rate ranked below just eight hitters in 2024 — but because he’s not generating the same type of speed with the bat, it turns what could be an upper-echelon power hitter into just a “pretty good” one.

It shows up in the other Statcast categories too. Bregman ranked in the 51st percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, 52nd in expected weighted on-base average, 59th in expected slugging and 66th percent in batting average. All of those are fine figures that you couldn’t call weakness, but you can’t really call any of them strengths either, can you?

And because we’re talking fantasy, it’s worth pointing out that Bregman doesn’t contribute much on the bases. Since stealing 17 bags in his first full year, he’s swiped all of 23 bases over the next seven years, and hasn’t come close to double-digit thefts since 2018. The steals category isn’t something third baseman necessarily have to pile up numbers to be successful, but it’s obviously something you have to factor in.

How does Bregman fit into the Boston infield?

Bregman has played 1,135 games in the majors, and 995 of them have come at the hot corner. He’s played second base just nine times in his career, but it looks like that figure is going up.

At first glance, it makes sense, as the Red Sox have Rafael Devers and also are giving Rafael Devers a lot of money. That being said, it shouldn’t shock anyone if this changes. Devers is a well below-average defensive player, one who profiles better at first base or even better at designated hitter. Campbell is widely considered one of the best prospects in baseball who is right on the precipice of a call-up, so unless Campbell were to be traded — something that seems as unlikely as anything — it seems likely that the best defensive lineup would be Bregman at third, Campbell at second and Devers at DH or first base. That of course would necessitate a trade of Masataka Yoshida or Triston Casas, and both were the subject of trade rumors earlier in the offseason.

One way or another, Bregman is going to play everyday, and there’s definitely some added fantasy value with second-base eligibility.

Where does Bregman rank among third baseman for the 2025 season?

Bregman won’t gain the eligibility for a few weeks in most leagues, so you should still be considering him as a member of the hot corner until proven otherwise. It’d be fair to say that the position is a bit top heavy, but it’d also be fair to say that Bregman doesn’t belong in that top group. It would take a strong amount of ignoring logic to suggest he’s better as a fantasy option than Jose Ramirez, Devers, Austin Riley or Jazz Chisholm Jr; and if you play in a league where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. qualifies he obviously goes above Bregman, too. You would probably argue that Manny Machado belongs in that group, too, and Royce Lewis — even with the health risks — is easy to justify as a higher selection.

That puts Bregman in the next group of third baseman, and the fact that it appears he’s going to gain an extra position does add intrigue when debating him with those next group of names. Do you take Bregman over the upside of Mark Vientos and Junior Caminero? Do you prefer Bregman to the more well-rounded potential of Jordan Westburg? Personally, I’m taking my shot on those names over Bregman, knowing that I could add some “competition” with a bat like Alec Bohm, Nolan Arenado, Max Muncy or even a Connor Norby in the later rounds to pair.

You could, of course, add those bats to Bregman, as well but this is my way of saying I’m probably passing on Bregman as a fantasy option unless he falls outside of the top 10 rounds, maybe even the top dozen. You can do worse, but there’s a good chance you can do better — or at least similar with a later pick — too.