The 2023 NBA Draft was billed as a marquee class, featuring one generational talent and multiple potential All-Stars. Nearly two seasons later, that outlook remains intact, though there have been plenty of unexpected developments along the way.
Victor Wembanyama has lived up to the hype, showcasing an unprecedented blend of size, skill, and defensive impact. However, after last week’s news of his season-ending blood clot issue, concerns about the long-term durability of a player with his body type have resurfaced.
Scoot Henderson entered the draft cycle as one of the most highly touted lead guard prospects in recent memory, while Brandon Miller made a strong case as an elite wing after an impressive college season. Henderson struggled as a rookie but has shown improvement in his second year. Conversely, Miller appeared to be putting it all together late in his first season but has yet to make the expected second-year leap due to injuries.
Meanwhile, Amen Thompson, who received some early top-three consideration but was widely viewed as a tier below Henderson and Miller, has outperformed both in his second season.
So, 18 months after the historic draft, what might have happened if teams knew then what they know now?
Actual pick: Victor Wembanyama
The narrative remains the same: Wembanyama is an unprecedented prospect with a unique blend of size, length, flexibility, skill, and defensive impact. The only question is whether his physical makeup can withstand the rigors of an NBA career.
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Before his injury, he led the league in both blocks and steals and was the only player averaging a five-by-five. He appeared poised to make the Spurs contenders sooner rather than later, and if this blood clot proves to be an isolated incident, that trajectory remains unchanged. What may have once sounded like hyperbole has proven to be reality—there has never been a player like Wemby.
Actual pick: Brandon Miller
The original debate at No. 2 was between Miller and Henderson, but in hindsight, the conversation should have been between Miller and Amen Thompson. Thompson may be the best athlete in the NBA and one of its top defenders, with elite transition scoring, finishing, and cutting ability. However, Miller’s offensive upside in the half-court gives him the edge. His combination of size and versatile shot-making makes him a better foundational piece for Charlotte. Concerns about his limited rim pressure remain, and a wrist injury has sidelined him since last month. His 2025-26 campaign will be telling.
Actual pick: Scoot Henderson
On draft night, Portland was thought to have the easiest non-Wembanyama pick—simply take whoever Charlotte didn’t at No. 2. In a redraft, however, Thompson would be a no-brainer. His athleticism, defense, cutting, and finishing are all elite. He also has a high basketball IQ, though concerns about his shooting and ball-handling have been warranted. He struggles as a shooter and is not yet a consistent jumbo initiator, but at 22 years old, he is already impacting winning at a high level and has clear All-Star upside.
Actual pick: Amen Thompson
The Rockets nailed their original pick with Thompson, but in this scenario, Henderson would be a strong alternative. His development has taken an unexpected path—his shooting, once a major weakness, has improved, while his finishing and defense, previously considered strengths, have been inconsistent. He still has significant long-term tools and is showing real signs of growth, even if expectations have been tempered from where they were two years ago.
Actual pick: Ausar Thompson
There were immediate questions about how Ausar Thompson fit alongside Cade Cunningham in Detroit, and those concerns have only grown, especially after the front office drafted another defensive-minded wing, Ron Holland, in 2024. While Lively may have seemed redundant with Jalen Duren on the roster, he likely would have been a better long-term fit. His superior rim protection, defensive presence, and passing ability—particularly in short rolls—would have given Detroit more flexibility.
Actual pick: Anthony Black
Like Wembanyama, Thompson has dealt with a blood clot issue, but his has since been resolved. His extreme athleticism and defensive ability remain standout traits, though his lack of shooting remains a glaring weakness. Through eight games in February, he has yet to attempt a 3-pointer but is averaging 14 points per game on 63% shooting by cutting, running in transition, and finishing. His fit in Orlando wouldn’t be seamless due to spacing concerns, but a defensive tandem with Jalen Suggs would be among the league’s best.
Actual pick: Jarace Walker
The Pacers were targeting a four-man here. They had Jarace Walker atop their board and picked up an additional asset by taking Coulibaly and flipping him to the Wizards.
The irony? They may have been better off just keeping Coulibaly. He was widely considered a reach at the time, but he has made impressive progress in Washington with the opportunity to play through mistakes. While he may not have had the same development track in Indiana, he currently looks like the best upside prospect left on the board, with length, athleticism, and defensive prowess.
Actual pick: Bilal Coulibaly
The Wizards were swinging big with their pick, and while the Coulibaly selection looked aggressive on draft night, it has aged well.
Wallace is a different type of prospect—he’s more equipped to impact winning immediately, as he’s shown in Oklahoma City, but his offensive upside is fairly limited. His value lies on defense, where he ranks in the top five in the league in steal percentage, deflections, and defensive rating.
Actual pick: Taylor Hendricks
There are already a lot of opinions about George, but he has undoubtedly been more productive than anyone else left on the board and is still young, having just turned 21 in November.
He’s averaging 16 points, six assists, and four rebounds per game and has found an ideal role coming off the bench, where he can provide instant offense. His future growth depends on two key areas: offensive efficiency and defense.
His scoring has been inconsistent—his field-goal percentage (39.5%) and 3-point shooting (33.4%) are nearly identical to last season—but he remains a high-volume scorer. Defensively, he has physical limitations, but his motor and effort are inconsistent as well.
Actual pick: Cason Wallace (traded to OKC for Dereck Lively II)
The Mavs nailed this pick, drafting Wallace and flipping him to Dallas for Lively. Either would have been good value here, but in this redraft, both are off the board.
If there were even a slight concern that the Luka era might not last forever, a connective guard like Podziemski would have made a lot of sense. He’s skilled, understands the game, and excels at making quick reads once the dominoes start falling.
His shooting has dipped to 32% this year, which is a key long-term concern for his archetype, but he is also a more solid defender than he often gets credit for.
11. Orlando Magic: Gradey Dick
Actual pick: Jett Howard
The Jett Howard pick was questionable on draft night and remains so nearly 20 months later. The Magic needed shooting, and both Dick and Jordan Hawkins were still available.
Dick is averaging 15 points per game this season for Toronto, up from 8.5 as a rookie. While his 3-point shooting sits at just 34.5%, he has been used more as a movement shooter than he likely would have been in Orlando. He’s making 45% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s, and in a more structured role, he likely would have thrived.
Actual pick: Cason Wallace
The Thunder originally selected Wallace, a defensive-minded guard who has become a key part of their starting lineup. In this scenario, with Wallace off the board, Black would be the logical alternative. While his development has been slower than expected, he remains a high-IQ player and plus defender. His lack of shooting and tentativeness on offense remain concerns, but he could have thrived in a different role in OKC’s system, where the team still needs more creation off the bench.
Actual pick: Gradey Dick
The Raptors needed shooting and took Dick over Hawkins. While Dick has improved in his second season, Hawkins remains one of the best movement shooters in this draft class. Injuries have slowed him down, and his lack of strength has impacted his finishing ability, but his ability to rise and fire off screens makes him an appealing pick for Toronto.
Actual pick: Jordan Hawkins
The Pelicans were looking for shooting and selected Hawkins, but if they had anticipated potential changes to their core, they might have opted for Walker instead. New Orleans’ frontcourt depth remains an area of need, and Walker’s combination of power, length, and defensive versatility would have made him a valuable long-term piece. His decision-making on both ends of the floor is still a work in progress, but his physical tools and developing skill set make him the best option here.
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