Wednesday is the opening of the 2025 international signing period and that means a bunch of teenagers in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and other countries will sign their first professional contracts. It also means Roki Sasaki, star righty most recently of the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan, is eligible to sign with MLB teams. They’ve waited a long, long time to get a shot at him.
Because he is younger than 25, the 23-year-old Sasaki is subject to the international bonus pools, meaning he will sign a minor-league contract with a signing bonus that will not exceed $10 million or so, and could come in quite a bit under that. He is not eligible to sign a massive $300 million contract like Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason. It will be a bargain deal.
We ranked Sasaki as the seventh-best free agent available this offseason. Here’s the write-up:
Sasaki is the most talented pitcher not already in an MLB organization. He’s been on the global radar since throwing a 19-strikeout perfect game as a 20-year-old in 2022. He combines elite velocity with a devastating swing-and-miss splitter/forkball. Sasaki has dealt with his share of injuries, limiting him to 33 combined starts across the last two seasons. His earning potential is completely suppressed because of his amateur free agent classification. Nevertheless, a fully actualized Sasaki has a chance to be an immediate impact starter in the majors.
The Marines posted Sasaki on Dec. 10 and his 45-day posting window runs until 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 23. He has spent the last few weeks meeting with teams in-person at his representative’s office in California and at some on-site locations before beginning the elimination process. Sasaki is not expected to sign right away on Wednesday, but rather take a few days to consider his options and agree to a deal closer to the Jan. 23 deadline.
Sasaki’s in-person meetings were uniform across the board. Every team was allotted the same amount of time and was not allowed to bring current MLB players. Each team was also reportedly given “homework” to complete. The nature of said “homework” is unknown, though it is believed Sasaki used it gain insight into each team’s inner-workings and pitcher development.
Given his age and talent, Sasaki is the one of the most coveted free agents of the winter and, for all intents and purposes, the financial playing field is level. The international bonus pool is a hard cap and teams cannot simply keep adding dollars to their offer until Sasaki says yes. If money was top priority, he wouldn’t come over now. Teams will have to sell him on everything else they have to offer.
It should be noted that teams can trade for an additional 60% of their original bonus pool, which is based on market size. Waiting until closer to Jan. 23 would give interested teams (or Sasaki’s chosen team, if he makes a decision before then) time to trade for additional bonus pool space so they can up their offer. Bonus pool space must be traded in $250,000 increments.
With all that in mind, here is a look at the six teams known to have met in-person with Sasaki and are believed to still be in the race (so, not the Giants and Yankees), ranked in order of how badly they need to sign the young flamethrower.
2024 record: 98-64 (won World Series)
2025 international bonus pool: $5,146,200 ($8,233,920 max through trades)
When did they meet with Sasaki? Sometime in December, according to the Orange County Register.
Are they expected to contend in 2025? Yup. The Dodgers are the defending World Series champions, and they have baseball’s best roster both on paper and according to the projections. Other than Yamamoto, their core players are in their 30s now (Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, etc.), though still plenty good enough to contend in 2025 and years beyond that. Simply put, the Dodgers are the best team in the game and the best-run team in the game. Oh, and they have the backing of an ownership group with very deep pockets.
Other considerations: Sasaki is said to have grown close with Ohtani and Yamamoto when the three were teammates on Team Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Yamamoto and Kenta Maeda show the current Dodgers regime knows how to help Japanese players assimilate not just to Major League Baseball, but to a new culture. The Dodgers have a rich history with Japanese players that goes back much further than Maeda, Ohtani, and Yamamoto. It includes players like Hideo Nomo, Kaz Ishii, and Hiroki Kuroda as well. Los Angeles is also quite good at pitcher development and maxing out individual pitch mixes and skill sets.
What could be a sticking point? The Dodgers cannot keep pitchers healthy. Every year like clockwork, they lose two or three guys to Tommy John surgery (last year it was Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, and Emmet Sheehan), plus others to shorter-term arm injuries. Injuries are an unfortunately inevitable part of the game and part of pitching, but it’s fair to wonder if the Dodgers and their pitching approach that emphasizes big velocity and nasty spin puts their pitchers at heightened risk. Sasaki does have a bit of an injury history himself, and Los Angeles is not the best bet to keep him on the field.
Why do they need him? Honestly? They don’t. Every team would love a 23-year-old with ace ability, especially one who will come at such a low cost, but the Dodgers don’t need Sasaki. Their current rotation is stronger than the one that just won the World Series, and that’s even after factoring in the inevitable injuries they’ll deal with in 2025. The Dodgers have been viewed as the favorite to sign Sasaki since long before he was posted, though that doesn’t necessarily mean they need him. It just means they want him.
2024 record: 78-84 (missed postseason)
2025 international bonus pool: $6,261,600 ($10,108,560 max through trades)
When did they meet with Sasaki? In the middle of December, according to the Dallas Morning News.
Are they expected to contend in 2025? Yes. Jacob deGrom returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and looked terrific. Corey Seager (hernia) and Evan Carter (back) will be ready for spring training, Wyatt Langford will have a year of big-league experience under his belt, and new additions Jake Burger and Joc Pederson will add power to a lineup that finished 18th in home runs and 22nd in slugging percentage last season. Also, the Rangers play in a very winnable division. The Angels and Athletics are nonfactors, the Astros are trending down (106 wins to 90 wins to 88 wins the last three years), and the Mariners seem unwilling to seize the opportunity. There is every reason to believe Texas will contend this coming season.
Other considerations: At the Winter Meetings last month, Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, said Sasaki has been through “not having an enjoyable experience with the media” in Japan, and the media presence around the Rangers is much less intense than in New York or Los Angeles or a more traditional big market. No matter where he signs, Sasaki will not be able to fly under the radar, though his life could be a little more low-key on a day-to-day basis with Texas. The Rangers have also had great success with big-name Japanese players, specifically Yu Darvish.
What could be a sticking point? The Rangers did just miss the postseason. In fact, they’ve missed the postseason seven times in the last eight years, with their 2023 World Series win the exception. The Rangers look quite good on paper and they have a title in the recent past, something few others can say, but this is not a franchise known for annual contention. It might take some effort to convince Sasaki this is the team that gives him the best chance to develop as a pitcher and win consistently the next six years.
Why do they need him? deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are both in their mid-30s and the Rangers will soon need someone to take their place at the top of the rotation. Maybe that’s Kumar Rocker, who looked terrific after returning from Tommy John surgery last summer, but the more high-end rotation talent you can amass, the better. deGrom, Eovaldi, Seager, and Marcus Semien are still productive players and the Rangers want to win as many titles with this core as they can. Sasaki helps short and long-term.
2024 record: 89-73 (lost NLCS)
2025 international bonus pool: $6,261,600 ($10,108,560 max through trades)
When did they meet with Sasaki? Like the other New York team, the Mets met with Sasaki on Dec. 19, per the New York Post.
Are they expected to contend in 2025? Indeed. The Mets had baseball’s best record after June 2 last year, they made a surprise run to the NLCS, then they signed Juan Soto and added him to Francisco Lindor. Owner Steve Cohen is in it to win it, and the roster is strong and getting better. It won’t be long before top prospects Drew Gilbert and Brandon Sproat join Lindor, Soto, Francisco Alvarez, Edwin Díaz, and Mark Vientos in Flushing. The Mets are very good and getting better, and their owner has the deepest pockets in the game and is willing to spend. That last part isn’t always a given.
Other considerations: Veteran Kodai Senga, a legend in Japan, would be rotation-mates with Sasaki and a strong mentor. Again, it’s not just about moving into a new league. It’s about moving to an entirely new country. At age 23! Could you imagine moving to a new country at 23? I could barely do my own laundry at that age. The Mets have finally caught up to the times with modern pitcher development, which is another feather in their cap. They can sell Sasaki on winning right away, joining a team that will help him get better, and playing for an owner that will pay for whatever the team needs. That’s quite the sales pitch.
What could be a sticking point? The Mets are out of luck if Sasaki prefers the west coast. That’s one problem Cohen’s money can’t solve (and he can’t even use it here because of the international bonus pools). On the field, there figure to be few sticking points. The Mets are positioned to contend now and into the future, and they’ve made strides with their pitcher development.
Why do they need him? POBO David Stearns subscribes to the “don’t pay big for pitchers because they all get hurt” theory, which is why the Mets have surrounded Soto with Paul Blackburn, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes as a starter. When you operate this way, you have to grow your own aces, and Sasaki has ace potential. The Mets need a legitimate No. 1 starter and Sasaki can be that. And, you know, they want to win the World Series in 2025. Sasaki could help accomplish that too.
2024 record: 74-88 (missed postseason)
2025 international bonus pool: $6,261,600 ($10,108,560 max through trades)
When did they meet with Sasaki? According to The Athletic, the Blue Jays met with Sasaki and hosted him in Toronto last week.
Are they expected to contend in 2025? As currently constituted, no, probably not, though the American League is watered down enough that you needn’t try too hard to see the Blue Jays hanging around the race all season. The Blue Jays have made an unfortunate habit of chasing big-name free agents only to miss out, and pivot to lesser players. I mean heck, they only signed Jeff Hoffman after his agreement with the Orioles fell apart. They managed to finish second for a free agent they actually signed! All kidding aside, the Blue Jays are facing an uphill battle in 2025 and beyond.
Other considerations: The Blue Jays have a recent history with Japanese pitchers. They signed Yusei Kikuchi three years ago and, after a rough 2022, coaching him up into a mid-rotation starter from 2023. Last year’s deadline trade to the Astros had more to do with the team’s failings than Kikuchi (a non-contender traded a rental, that’s all). Toronto is well-versed in working with Japanese players and how best to accommodate them. Also, with Kevin Gausman beginning to show his age in 2024, the path is clear for Sasaki to become his team’s unquestioned No. 1 starter in short order, if that is something he craves.
What could be a sticking point? The Blue Jays have been unable to sign stars and the stars they do have are a year away from free agency, and not a lock to stick around long-term. Those stars — Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — will be free agents after 2025, and while it’s no secret Toronto wants to lock up Vlad Jr. long-term, it hasn’t happened yet, and it’s not guaranteed to happen ever. You don’t have to try too hard to see the Blue Jays settling in as the clear-cut fifth-best team in the AL East in a year. Playing in Canada is also a headache from a “you have to go through customs every road trip” perspective.
Why do they need him? This team badly needs a win. The Blue Jays lost out on Shohei Ohtani last offseason and both Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto this offseason, and the fan base is restless. A young, high-end starter can help set the Blue Jays on the proper course, and perhaps convince Guerrero to re-up, convince other free agents to sign with Toronto, etc. The Blue Jays need Sasaki’s talent on the field plus everything he brings off the field (marketability, etc.). I might have them too low in these rankings.
2024 record: 83-79 (missed postseason)
2025 international bonus pool: $6,261,600 ($10,108,560 max through trades)
When did they meet with Sasaki? The Cubbies met with Sasaki on Dec. 20, reports 670 The Score.
Are they expected to contend in 2025? Expected to? Yes. Will they? That remains to be seen. The Cubs have run in place the last few years (83 wins in both 2023 and 2024) and they haven’t been to the postseason since 2020, but they did trade for Kyle Tucker this offseason, they have a strong farm system loaded with near-MLB-ready players, and the NL Central is not the most imposing division. The Cubs have had an unfortunate knack for underperforming expectations in recent years. On paper though, this team should at least be in the hunt deep into September, if not favored to secure a postseason berth.
Other considerations: Shota Imanaga, who played with Sasaki in the 2023 WBC, fronts Chicago’s rotation and could aid him in his transition to MLB and the United States. Imanaga did it just last year. It’s fresh in his mind. The same goes for Seiya Suzuki. Other than the Dodgers, no team can surround Sasaki with his countrymen like the Cubs, if that’s what he wants. Chicago’s pitching development has taken big steps forward the last few years as well. It was among the worst in the game for a few years there. Now though, they’re much more state of the art. Sasaki’s development would be in good hands on Chicago’s North Side.
What could be a sticking point? The Cubs are baseball’s smallest big-market team. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Cubs have an estimated $190.4 million payroll for competitive balance tax purposes in 2025. That’s down from $239.5 million last year. Their estimated 2025 payroll is currently lower than their 2016 payroll. Yikes! It’s fair to question ownership’s commitment given the payroll situation. The Cubs have a good young team with a lot of talent, a beautiful and historic ballpark, and they play in the wonderful city. We just have no idea if ownership will ever allow this team to be truly great again in the near future.
Why do they need him? Sasaki is such an excellent fit for the Cubs. His age and what should be his prime years align perfectly with their core, and he’s the kind of player who can swing the balance of power within the division. The Cubs have spent the last few years looking up at the Brewers. Sasaki can close that gap. Don’t forget about the added revenue too. Sasaki will sell tickets and sell sponsorships, and perhaps the additional revenue would lead to more spending on the roster, and allow the Cubs to do something like, say, lock up Tucker long-term.
2024 record: 93-69 (lost NLDS)
2025 international bonus pool: $6,261,600 ($10,108,560 max through trades)
When did they meet with Sasaki? The Padres met with Sasaki in San Diego this past weekend, reports The Athletic.
Are they expected to contend in 2025? I would say yes, though San Diego has sat out the offseason to date — the only player the Padres have added to the 40-man roster from outside the organization this winter is Rule 5 Draft pick Juan Nuñez, who has yet to pitch above High Class-A — and they have glaring holes in left field, behind the plate, and in the back of the rotation. Sasaki could, obviously, help with the rotation issue. I think that, bottom line, yes, a team with Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., and others in their prime is expected to contend in 2025. GM A.J. Preller has a history of making moves late in the offseason (like signing Jurickson Profar last February) and even during spring training (like trading for Cease last March). I doubt he sits on his hands all winter.
Other considerations: Similar to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sasaki is said to have grown close to Yu Darvish during the 2023 WBC, to the point that he considers Darvish a mentor. The Padres also offer Sasaki a much clearer path to being The Man in the near future. With the Dodgers, he will always be in Ohtani’s shadow, and behind Yamamoto and others in the rotation. Cease and King will both be free agents after 2025 and Darvish is approaching 40. Sasaki could be the club’s Opening Day starter and unquestioned ace by 2026. How much does he value that? Beats me. You’d have to ask him. I don’t think it hurts though.
What could be a sticking point? Last week Sheel Seidler, widow of late Padres owner Peter Seidler, filed a lawsuit against Peter’s brothers in an effort to retain control of the organization. There is dysfunction at the ownership level and clamps have been put on payroll since Peter died last November. What exactly does the future of this franchise look like? How long will the infighting continue? You needn’t try hard to see how that discord could be unappealing to a free agent, particularly one who will be tethered to the organization for at least six years given the rules regarding team control and service time.
Why do they need him? Again, Cease and King are a year away from free agency, and Darvish is aging out as a frontline starter. The Padres lack high-end pitching in the system and, with restrictions apparently placed on payroll, adding a front of the rotation pitcher could prove difficult the next few years. Sasaki is young and dynamic, and also cheap. Cheap to acquire and cheap to employ for the foreseeable future. The Padres need him in their rotation right now and also to anchor it in the future. They need him more than any other team.
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