Shohei Ohtani eyeing first NL Triple Crown in 87 years: How Dodgers star can close batting average gap Sunday

The final day of the regular season has arrived (maybe) and Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani has a chance to become the National League’s first Triple Crown winner since Joe Medwick with the 1937 Cardinals. Ohtani’s 54 home runs are 15 more than any other player in the NL. His 130 RBI are 18 more than anyone else. He has massive leads in those two categories.

Ohtani will have to make up roughly four points of batting average Sunday to win the Triple Crown. Here is the NL batting race:

1. Luis Arraez, Padres: .31388
2. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: .31013
3. Marcell Ozuna, Braves: .3064

As recently as Sept. 18, Ohtani was hitting .287 and well behind Arraez and his league-leading .320 batting average. Ohtani has since closed the gap with one of the most insane hot streaks in recent memory: 26 for 39 (.667) in nine games. Arraez went 5 for 28 (.179) during that time, including 0 for 12 in a three-game series against the Dodgers, which further closed the gap.

Ohtani went 2 for 5 on Saturday to add another point to his batting average. Arraez did not play. The Padres are locked into the top wild-card spot and rested several regulars Saturday, including Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. in addition to Arraez, as they prepare for the postseason. Arraez is expected to play in Sunday’s season finale, however.

To win the batting title and thus the NL’s first Triple Crown in 87 years, Ohtani needs to go at least 3 for 4 while Arraez goes 0 for 4 on Sunday. That would push Ohtani’s average up to .31289 and Arraez’s down to .31191. A 2-for-4 day would not do the trick for Ohtani. That would raise his batting average up to .31132, still percentage points below Arraez.

Ohtani and Arraez are both leadoff hitters who will play Sunday’s game in hitter-friendly ballparks (Ohtani in Coors Field, Arraez in Chase Field). It’s possible if not likely both will get five at-bats on the season’s final day. Here’s who will win the batting title with each possible outcome of a five at-bat day:

Ohtani’s path to the batting title is a narrow one, though this the same player who is hitting .667 in his last nine games, so who are we to put it past him? The X-factor here is how will the Padres handle Arraez? If he slaps a single in his first at-bat, it raises his batting average to .31496. Ohtani would need to go 5 for 5 to catch him. San Diego could pull Arraez from the game early.

Keep in mind the Dodgers are playing a Rockies team that has already lost 100 games and is just looking to get Sunday’s game over with so they can go on their offseason vacations. The Padres are playing a desperate Diamondbacks team trying to clinch a wild-card spot. It stands to reason they’ll pitch Arraez tougher, with more optimized matchups, than the Rockies will pitch Ohtani.

The last player to win the Triple Crown was future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera, who hit .330 with 44 home runs and 139 RBI for the 2012 Tigers. Since RBI became an official statistic in 1920, 10 players have won a total of 12 Triple Crowns. Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams each did it twice.