There are 100 million fully guaranteed reasons this may not happen, but the Falcons need to send Kirk Cousins to the sideline and start Michael Penix Jr.
Let’s start, naturally, with the numbers as justification. Over the last three games, all Atlanta losses, Cousins has thrown six interceptions without a touchdown, averaged 6.96 yards per attempt, and led an offense that failed to score more than 20 points.
The abysmal quarterback play has coincided with a surge for Atlanta’s defense. Since the start of Week 11, the Falcons are eighth in Expected Points Added per play in non-garbage-time situations. In the most recent loss, that unit sacked Justin Herbert five times! They came into the game with five sacks on the season! And the Falcons still couldn’t win.
In fourth quarters alone, Cousins has a 56.6 rating, which stems from two touchdowns to seven interceptions at 61% completion and 6.02 yards per attempt. Nine of Atlanta’s 12 games to date have been within one score entering the fourth.
This isn’t a schematic problem, nor are fluky plays the culprit here.
Cousins has regressed from a dependable, high-efficiency pocket passer with limited upside to an immobile quarterback whose weak arm and poor decision-making have become clear liabilities.
As the kids say, Cousins is cooked.
If completion percentage and yards per attempt are checked, it’d appear Cousins is operating on-brand. During his six-year stint in Minnesota, he completed 67.8% of his throws at 7.6 yards per attempt. This year in Atlanta, his completion rate is 67.4%, and his yards-per-attempt average is 7.6.
But the film tells a completely different story.
Three of his four interceptions in the 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers were of the brutal variety.
Those type of decisions and, especially, that lack of arm strength hamstrings an NFL offense today. Cousins is operating like a quarterback of the past. His improvisation skills were never a forte. But now the velocity his arm can generate has sunk well below requisite levels to connect on even anticipatory throws.
Defensive backs are too fast. Windows close in a blink of an eye. Which means Cousins has to release the football drastically before a receiver is to his spot, thereby increasing the difficulty of the pass to an extraordinarily high level.
Ironic to all of this — Penix’s cannon of an arm is likely a large part of why the Falcons shocked the NFL world by drafting him at No. 8 overall in April after giving Cousins $100M fully guaranteed in March.
And arm strength was the deciding factor on two of those interceptions against the Chargers. And they’re not the only ones.
Fortunately amid all his hamstringing quarterback play, the Falcons still sit atop the NFC South standings at 6-6 with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 6-6 Buccaneers. And that “lead” feels tenuous.
The Falcons’ final five contests are as follows — at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers.
Can they get to nine wins? Will that be enough to win the division?
For as much as those should/could be the Falcons’ realistic goals in 2024, they represent Atlanta’s ceiling … that is, if Cousins remains the starting quarterback.
This all isn’t meant to suggest Penix is guaranteed to be better, although I’m guessing he would be.
It’s that Cousins’ greatest selling point for a long time has been this — you know what you get with him. And now, that selling point is the exact reason to bench him for a considerably more physically gifted rookie.
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