Spring training trends: Paul Skenes’ new pitch, Anthony Volpe’s new swing, Alex Bregman’s new position, more

Generally speaking, spring training numbers don’t mean anything. The competition varies so much — a hitter could face a Cy Young winner in his first at-bat and a kid ticketed for Single-A in his second — and the sample sizes are so small that it’s hard to really find meaning in anything. Spring training is full of lies.

Except sometimes spring training does tell us the truth, or at least offer kernels of truth. Read between the lines and you can pick up on trends that do mean something. A new pitch or a new bat path are the kinds of things we can see in camp that can change a player’s outlook. With that in mind, here are four spring training trends worth knowing with Opening Day three weeks away.

1. Skenes working on a new pitch

As if he didn’t already make life tough enough on hitters, Pirates ace and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes is working to expand his arsenal this spring. Specifically, he’s tinkering with a running two-seam fastball and a cutter to complement his overpowering four-seam fastball, slider, and splinker. The cutter in particular shows the potential to be vicious:

“You’ve just got to mix it in,” Skenes said about the cutter following his first spring start (via the Associated Press). “I learned some stuff about it. It’s going to be good, I think.”

Overall, Skenes was more effective against lefties (.541 OPS) than righties (.562 OPS) last year, though his walk rate against lefties was double what it was against righties, and he got fewer ground balls from lefties too. Skenes primarily used his four-seamer and splinker against lefties, so a fairly limited arsenal. Righties got the kitchen sink: fastballs, breaking balls, the works.

The cutter would give Skenes something to pitch in hard on lefties, jam them up, and potentially break some bats. The two-seam fastball, if that pitch sticks, would give him something that runs away from lefties. Hitters would have to be ready for velocity up (four-seamer), in on lefties/away from righties (cutter), in on righties/away from lefties (two-seamer), and down (splinker). Sheesh.

“Anything that looks like a fastball and doesn’t end up being a fastball (is helpful),” Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin said (via ESPN). “I think we all know how special his fastballs are. (The cutter is) just something that is going to really open up the zone for him as well.”

Spring training is when pitchers work on new pitches and not all them stick. A lot of times a guy will try a new pitch in the spring, not feel entirely comfortably with it, then put it on the shelf when the regular season begins. We’ll see where things go for Skenes with his new cutter (and two-seamer). For now, arguably the most dominant pitcher in the game is working on a new weapon.

2. Volpe is swinging harder than ever

This is an important year for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe. In his first two MLB seasons, Volpe has proven himself to be one of the game’s top defenders at the position, though the bat has been underwhelming. In close to 1,300 plate appearances, he’s run a .288 on-base percentage and an 83 OPS+, meaning he’s been 17% worse than the average hitter.

Volpe’s defense ensures he won’t be a total zero if he’s not hitting, but the Yankees surely would like to see more offense from the soon-to-be 24-year-old. The hope is Volpe will build on last postseason, when he hit .286/.407/.408 in 14 games en route to New York’s pennant win. Volpe walked nearly as often as he struck out in October too (10 walks and 13 strikeouts).

One reason to believe Volpe’s strong postseason was not simply a 14-game blip: bat speed. Statcast’s new bat speed data tells us Volpe swung harder in October than he did at any point in the regular season, and the harder swings have shown up again this spring. Here are the monthly bat speed numbers:

A “fast” swing is a swing with a 75 mph bat speed or higher. Volpe, in 16 spring training plate appearances, has already exceeded his total of fast swings in last May, when he batted 128 times. He also has a 74.7 mph and 74.4 mph swings this spring, just under the 75 mph fast swing threshold. Since last October, Volpe has let it rip. He’s taking his “A” swing more often.

Bat speed correlates well to maximum exit velocity and, not coincidentally, Volpe set a new career max exit velocity last week when he clubbed a 110.0 mph home run. Prior to that, he’d never hit a ball harder than 108.7 mph at any level in any game (MLB, Triple-A, spring training, regular season, whatever). You don’t fluke into setting a new career high max exit velocity by 1.3 mph.

“I want to take care of the strike zone a lot more,” Volpe said earlier this spring (via MLB.com). “When I do that, I feel like I can impact the ball a lot better and just take my natural, normal swing, which I feel plays. But when I get too big or too outside the strike zone, no one hits those pitches.”

The question now is whether Volpe can continue swinging this hard — “this hard” meaning league average bat speed, not well below average like last regular season — while maintaining his strong contact rates. He was able to do that last October. Now he’ll try to do it during the long 162-game season in 2025, and give the Yankees more offense to go along with his standout defense.

3. Boston’s infield remains unsettled

There was a bit of a stir last month when Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers admitted he refused a move to DH, which would have allowed the newly signed Alex Bregman to play third and the team to field their best infield, defensively. “I told them no. I’m a third baseman,” Devers said. Bregman, for his part, said he will play wherever the team needs him, which is likely second base.

Entering Thursday, the Red Sox have played 11 games this spring, and the infield picture has not become any more clear. Bregman has played five games in the field, all at third base, and Devers has yet played the field. In fact, Devers has yet to play period. He’s nursing a shoulder issue and did not make his spring debut as scheduled Wednesday. Devers was slated to DH that game.

“Raffy is not starting tomorrow,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Tuesday (via MLB.com). “He asked me for more live BPs, so we’ll be good with that. We’ll see where we are over the weekend, but timing-wise, he’s off. I’m not worried about him.”

Opening Day is three weeks away, so there’s still time to prepare everyone for the position they’ll play this season, but it will have to start happening soon. Bregman hasn’t played second base since 2018. He has to get over there soon so he can begin developing chemistry with shortstop and double play partner Trevor Story. Devers has to get his legs under him at third base too.

Could the shoulder issue lead to Devers opening the season at DH, and Bregman at third base? It could, sure. It’s too early to say, though that doesn’t seem impossible. It also wouldn’t solve anything. It would just kick the can down the road until Devers is healthy enough to play third base, which could be fairly early in the season given the fact that he’s healthy enough to swing at a bat.

My hunch is Bregman will be more than fine at second base. He’s such a smart and instinctual defender that I bet it’ll look like he’s played second his entire career once he gets over there. He hasn’t gotten over there yet though. You would think the Red Sox want to give him as much time at his new position as possible this spring, but nope. He’s only played third base so far this spring.

4. The spring of the kick-change

Every so often, a new pitch or a variation of a pitch emerges and sweeps across baseball. This happened a few years ago with the sweeper, which is the modern version of a frisbee slider. What was once a pitch featured only by the league’s most cutting edge teams is now everywhere. Even college pitchers are throwing sweepers. Once a new pitch shows up, it inevitably spreads.

The new craze these days is the kick-change, which has harder sink than the typical changeup. The easiest way to describe the kick-change is a circle changeup grip with the middle finger spiked along the seam. The middle finger essentially “kicks” the ball out and creates a different spin axis than the typical changeup, and thus different break. Here’s an example:

The kick-change is not completely new. Martin and Giants righty Hayden Birdsong are among those who’ve been throwing it since at least last season. Spring training is when pitchers try new things, so Mariners closer Andrés Muñoz is toying around with a kick-change. So is Mets righty Clay Holmes. Surely others have played around with it in bullpen sessions and on the backfields.

“It’s just like something else that I would like to have in case that I need it,” Muñoz said about the kick-change (via the Spokesman-Review). “That is why I’m working every day to get better and better every time. Sometimes it doesn’t go your way. But I know that when you put good effort in, work hard and get better, the results will come.”

It is unlikely the kick-change is a fad that will soon pass. It’s a real pitch and a real weapon, and soon more pitchers will throw it. It may take some time to really grab hold across the league (changeups are generally more difficult to pick up than sweepers), but it will take hold eventually. The kick-change era has arrived. We’re just in the very early days of it right now.