If it feels like a record amount of time barely passed before a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl rematch, well you would be correct.
Following the Chiefs’ narrow 38-35 victory over the Eagles that concluded the 2022 NFL season, both teams are back in the big game with another Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line. This Super Bowl LIX showdown in New Orleans marks only the second Super Bowl pairing to happen twice in a span of three or fewer seasons, joining the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Buffalo Bills, a showdown that happened in back-to-back campaigns in 1992 and 1993.
|
Cowboys vs. Bills |
0 |
1992, 1993 |
2-0 DAL |
|
Chiefs vs. Eagles |
1 |
2022, 2024 |
1-0 KC |
|
Steelers vs. Cowboys |
2 |
1975, 1978 |
2-0 PIT |
|
Chiefs vs. 49ers |
3 |
2019, 2023 |
2-0 KC |
|
Giants vs. Patriots |
3 |
2007, 2011 |
2-0 NYG |
|
49ers vs. Bengals |
6 |
1981, 1988 |
2-0 SF |
The first Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl was a classic in that the final result came down to a single handful of plays — and calls. Kansas City enters as the back-to-back champion that knows exactly what their offensive bread and butter is. Philadelphia has toggled back and forth between featuring its aerial attack led by wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith catching passes from quarterback Jalen Hurts and establishing 2024 rushing champion Saquon Barkley right from the word go.
Who will emerge victorious on Sunday? Let’s break the matchup down and determine a victor.
Where to watch Super Bowl LIX
Date: Sunday, Feb. 9 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
TV: Fox | Stream: fubo (try for free), Tubi (free)
Halftime performer: Kendrick Lamar
Follow: CBS Sports App
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Why Eagles could dethrone Chiefs
At this point, it’s fair to say the Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have a feeling of inevitability. They’ve won nine consecutive playoff games, including the last two Super Bowls, which is tied for the second-longest streak of all time behind only the early 2000s Tom Brady-Bill Belichick New England Patriots (10 wins in a row). When a game gets tight, Kansas City wins: It’s 12-0 in one-score games in the 2024 season, which is the most such wins in a single season ever, including the postseason. The Chiefs’ 17-game winning streak in games decided by one score is also the longest streak by any team in NFL history including the playoffs, per CBS Sports Research.
However, the Chiefs have certainly been gettable in the Super Bowl. Mahomes has thrown seven touchdowns to five interceptions in four Super Bowl appearances while passing for 36 touchdowns and only three picks in every other round of the playoffs combined. Kansas City has, in fact, trailed by 10 or more points in all four of their Super Bowls in the Mahomes era, and they have won three of them. That’s unfathomable considering all other quarterbacks are 4-48 when falling behind by at least 10 points in the big game.
Should that trend continue in Super Bowl LIX, the Chiefs will lose to the Eagles. Philadelphia led the NFL in average time of possession (32:22) and average time of possession margin (4:45) this season in thanks to being content with letting Barkley and their offensive line dominate. Hurts had five games this season in which he threw 20 or fewer passes, four full games played and one being Week 16 against the Washington Commanders when he missed the final three quarters with a concussion. The four full games played with 20 or fewer passes tied for the most among starting quarterbacks this season along with the Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson and the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson.
Pounding the Chiefs’ front with more and more Saquon should be the game plan for Philadelphia because it will likely yield great results. Barkley is averaging 147.3 rushing yards per game in three games played this postseason, and he has run for over 100 yards in 14 of the Eagles’ 19 games this season, including each of the last five. In just the last two games, Barkley has 323 yards rushing while averaging 7.9 yards per carry. He is the only player since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to hit both of those marks in two-game span in the postseason. Conversely, Kansas City’s run defense has crumbled in the playoffs. They allowed just 101.8 rushing yards per game in the regular season, the eighth-fewest in the NFL in 2024, but the Chiefs are allowing 148.0 rushing yards per game in the playoffs.
If Kansas City commits even one turnover, the aforementioned context about the Eagles’ run game vs. the Chiefs run defense could seal this game in Philadelphia’s favor. The Eagles have an 8-0 turnover differential this postseason, which is the second best entering a Super Bowl ever, behind only the 1998 Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos who forced nine turnovers while not committing any prior to their Super Bowl victory. Philadelphia also has Vic Fangio, the pioneer of the NFL’s two-high safety shell defense, as their defensive coordinator, which means the Eagles have a scheme designed to take away Mahomes’ big plays. It also helps that the Philadelphia defensive front has the NFL postseason’s leader in sacks (edge rusher Nolan Smith with 4.0) and quarterback pressures (defensive tackle Jalen Carter with 20). That duo helped the Eagles have the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense (17.8 points per game allowed) and No. 1 total defense (278.4) in 2024 and overwhelm their postseason opposition.
Prediction
The last time the Eagles faced the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, their lead back Miles Sanders hurt their cause, rushing for 16 yards on seven carries while also fumbling. Barkley proves one more time that he’s Philadelphia’s missing piece by powering the Eagles to a Super Bowl LIX triumph as their bell cow back.
Pick: Eagles 31, Chiefs 24
MVP: PHI RB Saquon Barkley: 24 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD
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