Team USA will play its biggest game in 15 years on Thursday night when it meets Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off championship. The Americans have already shown they can beat their bitter rivals, but the Canadians will do everything they can to avenge Saturday’s loss and win the tournament.
Team USA has been the most consistent team in the tournament. It has defended well, gotten good goaltending and capitalized on its offensive chances. All three of those things will have to continue if it wants a chance to assert itself as the top hockey program in the world going into the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy.
When it comes to the rematch, I’d expect Canada to try to get its rush attack going on offense. That’s how the Canadians scored their only goal on Saturday, and they have speed to burn if the U.S. gives them an inch of space.
When the Canadians do break through the Americans’ blue line, it’ll be up to Connor Hellebuyck to make key saves. He’s done that in both of his starts so far, but the level of difficulty might get ramped up on Thursday.
Finally, if there is an area in which the Americans can improve, it’s creating high-danger chances of their own. They can’t afford to sit on their heels and play defense all night, and they need to throw quality shots on Jordan Binnington, who hasn’t exactly been impenetrable.
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Here are the three biggest keys to victory for Team USA in its championship matchup against Canada.
Stifle Canada’s rush offense
This is something Team USA did a very good job of in the first meeting between these two teams. Connor McDavid came flying through the neutral zone on Canada’s first and only goal of the game, but the Americans shut down those rush opportunities very quickly after that.
The challenge facing the U.S. this time around is that Charlie McAvoy is out due to injury. He did an exceptional job of cutting off the Canadians at his own blue line, and he nearly knocked McDavid into the next province. The rest of the American defense is still fully capable of skating with the Canadians, at least to some degree. I would expect Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber to get most of those shutdown minutes. Those two worked extremely well together, and Slavin was crucial to Team USA’s lockdown third period.
The key within the key here is the Americans’ ability to play defense as a five-man unit once the Canadians get turned toward the boards on the rush. When Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon and Mitch Marner are circling and looking for open teammates, Team USA has to have sticks in passing lanes and dangerous scoring areas covered. Again, the Americans did a terrific job of that on Saturday. Now they just have to replicate it.
Test Binnington early and often
Binnington has allowed at least one iffy goal in each of Canada’s games in this tournament. In the game against Team USA, a rug burner from Jake Guentzel that slipped through Binnington’s legs wound up being the difference.
If there was one criticism you could levy against the Americans in that game, it was that they didn’t get to the prime scoring areas often enough. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Team USA generated just five high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five compared to Canada’s 12. Whether it’s on the forecheck or counter-attacks off the rush, Team USA will need to force Binnington to make difficult saves more frequently.
That’s where Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes come in. Those two are two of the most gifted offensive players the Americans have at their disposal, but they’ve combined for two assists to this point. If there was ever a time for Matthews and Hughes to fill up the stat sheet, it would be Thursday night, and Binnington hasn’t exactly been unbeatable.
Keep Hellebuyck’s doorstep clean
On the opposite end of the ice from Binnington, Hellebuyck will stand in the crease for the U.S. That’s a matchup that heavily favors the Americans, and that means they just can’t let Canada get any freebies around the net.
Team USA has done a good job of limiting high-danger chances against, but Canada will eventually get its opportunities. When the Canadians do get a shot away, there can’t be a rebound laying in a dangerous area for very long. When Canada does get loose off the rush, there can’t be open passing lanes for backdoor tap-ins. When Canada settles for point shots, Hellebuyck can’t be screened by three or four layers of traffic.
Hellebuyck is capable of making impossible saves look easy, but it’s best not to tempt fate against the high-powered Canadians. Thus far, Team USA has defended very well in front of Hellebuyck, and the results have shown that. Hellebuyck has stopped 45 of the 47 shots he’s faced in the tournament, and if the Americans don’t make his night of work too difficult on Thursday, they should win back-to-back games against Canada.
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