Texas Rangers
2023 record: 78-84
Third place AL West
Team ERA: 4.37 (25th in MLB)
Team OPS: .686 (23rd in MLB)
What Went Right
The defending World Series Champions meandered out the gate, went cold during the summer as their pitching thinned, and never put together the same hot streak that propelled them in 2023. With that, their greatest success came by season’s end when they put together what could have been one of the best rotations in baseball this postseason and should be exciting in 2025.
By the middle of September, they had a healthy Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Kumar Rocker, Andrew Heaney, Cody Bradford, and Jack Leiter all pitching reasonably well. About half of those guys aren’t under contract next season, but this is still an exciting group.
Eovaldi was their most consistent starter wall to wall with a 3.80 ERA across 170 innings and 29 starts. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity held consistent with the last three seasons and he’s likely to exercise his player option to try and grab one more contract before he enters his age-35 season.
Otherwise, the most notable success from this team was Kirby Yates’ resurgence. He laid claim to the best reliever in the American League not named Emmanuel with a 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 35.9 K%, and 33 saves. Those are marks he hadn’t hit since his heyday with the Padres.
Oddly, their lineup, which was nearly the best in baseball last season, fell off hard. Corey Seager was still excellent with 30 home runs and a 140 wRC+ in 123 games between various injuries.
Also, Josh Smith put together a solid season with 13 homers, 11 stolen bases, and a 111 wRC+ and looked like a formidable big-leaguer. Nathaniel Lowe held firm too with nearly identical rate stats as 2023, just without the strong counting stats due to the lineup’s downturn.
Lastly, Wyatt Langford got better and better as the season went on. He didn’t hit his first homer that went over the fence until June 18th and washed away a rough first few months with a 123 wRC+ along with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases. Moreover, he was especially hot in September with a .300/.386/.610 slash line, eight homers, seven steals. That’s a small taste of what could be a superstar in the making.
What Went Wrong
Like I said, this lineup fell off the proverbial cliff compared to last season. Marcus Semien’s OPS fell to .699 and he only stole eight bases, each his lowest marks in a decade.
Adolis García’s OPS also fell to .684 as he was repeatedly burned by fastballs and saw his chase rate and walk rate return to the troubling spots they were before 2023.
Josh Jung and Evan Carter spent most of the year injured and weren’t great either when they were on the field. Jonah Heim fell off a cliff, Ezequiel Duran regressed, and Leody Taveras meandered to a 82 wRC+ in a whopping 529 plate appearances. Just awful all around.
Apart from that, their pitching staff mostly held true despite not being able to sync up until too late. Jon Gray had a 2.17 ERA through 11 starts and 8.03 ERA over his last eight that coincided with his strikeout rate falling from 24.3% to 12.8% over those same spans.
Dane Dunning’s ERA ballooned to 5.02 as he developed a home run problem that wasn’t there in 2023. Tyler Mahle came back from his long hiatus and promptly re-injured himself. The roster just never fully clicked.
Fantasy Slants
What do we make of Jacob deGrom? He returned in September for 10 electric innings in which he struck out 14, walked one, and allowed just two earned runs. His average fastball velocity was down from his heights but still above 97 MPH and his otherworldly command was still, well, otherworldly.
As it always has been, the issue with deGrom will come down to workload. Appearing this season means he’ll have a normal offseason and with his massive contract there’s an expectation the Rangers will let him pitch as much as he can. Yet, he hasn’t thrown more than 100 innings since 2019. Yeah, 2019. He has a legitimate claim to be a top five pitcher in fantasy or could wind up as a useless asset, again.
There’s also Scherzer, an impending free agent, who dealt with a litany of injuries in 2024 and saw his effectiveness fall along with his fastball velocity. He is probably just a 4.00 ERA guy at this point who you hope can give 120 innings.
Then there’s Rocker. He was electric in his debut and showed off what can make him great: a devastating slider and two unique fastballs that will sit around 96 MPH. The only concern with him is a thorough injury history. Otherwise, he has all the makings of a monster who could become an All-Star caliber pitcher sooner rather than later if he can get a hold of a changeup or curveball to give another thing for hitters to worry about.
However, the two wild cards for this rotation in 2025 are Bradford and Leiter, two could not be more diametrically opposed.
Bradford is a big-bodied, crafty lefty with little pedigree who tops out in the low-90s and gets by with a great changeup and great command. He introduced a new curveball that elevated his entire repertoire and helped him to a 3.54 ERA over 76 1/3 innings.
Leiter was the number two overall pick with a laundry list of collegiate accolades who scuffled through the minors and got hammered to the tune of an 8.83 ERA over 35 2/3 innings as a rookie last season. He’s struggled to maintain both the shape and velocity of his fastball while deepening his repertoire and finally finding success in AAA last season. It will be interesting to see how both of their roles develop throughout next season.
To end with a few hitters, I’m bullish on a Semien bouncem back. Being 34 scares me, but he hit the hardest ball of his career by two MPH last season, still played tremendous defense, and didn’t see his sprint speed fall meaningfully. He’s been lauded as one of the hardest workers in the league during his career and there’s still a big season or two left in his tank.
On the flip side, Josh Smith doesn’t inspire me. He completely fell apart in the second half and had a meager 59 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That along with next to no power and middling plate discipline makes him forgettable.
Also, Jung and Carter need to come back to form and be the hitters they have been and can be. Jung flashed late in the season after returning from a wrist injury, then saw the same wrist flare up. Carter’s contact rate plummeted and became completely unplayable against left-handed pitchers before a back injury ended his season. They are both hard players to trust in 2025.
Lastly, there’s no plan at closer if Yates signs elsewhere. José Leclerc is a free agent too. So, Josh Sborz is the only internal option and he’s well-known and uninspiring. It’s likely they look to free agency to find a new high-leverage reliever or just bring Yates back.
Key Free Agents
Nathan Eovalid (player option), Max Scherzer, Kirby Yates, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson (mutual option), Travis Jankowski, Carson Kelly.
Team Needs
This team needs to get back to basics and rediscover their thump as a lineup. It starts with Seager staying healthy and Semien returning to form. Then, some coalition of García, Langford, Jung, and Carter have to step up and play up to their lofty potential.
With that, they would do well to find some free agents that can be meaningful insurance policies, especially in the outfield. Taveras and Jankowski combined for over 700 PAs last season and that simply can’t happen for a team with World Series aspirations.
Then, their starters staying reasonably healthy would go a long way towards competing and they have to either seriously spend on their bullpen or pull a rabbit (or two) out of their hat to make this bullpen even league average.
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