With the odds all the way down to -20000 for quarterback Fernando Mendoza to be the first pick in the draft, there seems to be no way the Raiders won’t be taking him.
The move was treated like a given during quarterback Kirk Cousins’s introductory press conference on Wednesday, when he was asked about the fact that the Raiders will have an all-Big Ten depth chart with quarterbacks from Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana. (Cousins played for Michigan State, Aidan O’Connell played for Purdue, and Mendoza played for Indiana.)
Cousins didn’t say in response something like, “Well, they haven’t drafted Mendoza yet” or “I don’t know what they’re going to do with the first pick.” He answered the question as it was asked, with no caveat or disclaimer.
On one hand, nothing is done until it’s done. We were reminded of that last month when the trade that would have sent Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby to the Ravens fell through. On the other hand, it seems highly unlikely the Raiders won’t take Mendoza.
Yes, there have been surprises before. Twenty-five years ago, everyone expected the Chargers to select Michael Vick. In those days, there were many more terms to negotiate with first-round picks, and the talks between the Chargers and Vick collapsed at the eleventh hour. Enter the Falcons, and Atlanta ended up trading for the top pick.
Nowadays, there’s little over which to haggle. Barring a Reggie Bush-style surprise (which, given the current landscape of college sports, now seems ludicrous), it will be Mendoza to the Raiders.
What would it take? Some other team would have to make the Raiders an offer they couldn’t refuse, one that would entail sufficient draft picks to get them to put a pin in the pursuit of a rookie quarterback until 2027 (when the class is believed to be stronger) while also addressing multiple holes in the roster.
The Bears did that in 2023, trading out of the top spot with the Panthers and acquiring the 2024 first-round pick that became the No. 1 overall selection. In 2023, the Bears remained committed to Justin Fields. By 2024, they were ready to pounce on Caleb Williams.
If the Raiders are currently evaluating an offer like that, everyone has kept it very quiet. And evaluating it and taking it are two different things.
Regardless, there’s no smoke. Which means that, if there’s even a flicker of a flame, it’s being incredibly well concealed.
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