The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves have combined to win the World Series three of the last five seasons and the two storied franchises will go head-to-head in the premier matchup on the Monday MLB schedule. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET and the Dodgers are -220 money line favorites, according to the latest MLB odds from FanDuel SportsBook. However, there are plenty of other MLB props available for Monday’s games, including Shohei Ohtani, whose MLB home run prop is priced at +235. There are numerous MLB prop bets and MLB same-game parlays to consider at the top sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help inform your MLB best bets.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB player props on Friday.
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 RBI (+200 BetMGM)
The veteran second baseman has hit 20 or more home runs in all three of big league seasons he’s played where he has gotten at least 300 at-bats and that pop has helped turn him into one of the better run producers at this position. He slugged .538 during MLB spring training and he’s off to a 4-for-9 start against right-handed pitching this year.
“We would set Lowe’s line a lot closer to even money, as our average simulation has him recording .57 RBIs, and the +200 line that Lowe has would imply about .33 RBIs in Vegas’ models,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. This pick is +200 at BetMGM, whereas FanDuel is only offering +160.
Kumar Rocker over 3.5 hits allowed (-170 DraftKings)
A first-round pick of the Mets in 2021, Rocker didn’t sign and then was taken No. 3 overall by the Rangers at the 2022 MLB Draft. He finally made his Major League debut last season, allowing 12 hits and five earned runs in three starts over 11 2/3 innings while striking out 14. He gave up seven hits over 4 2/3 innings during his last start in 2024 against the struggling Athletics and now he’ll battle a solid young Reds lineup.
“Rocker is allowing 5.08 hits in our model in 5.45 innings, and I like to assume that most pitchers will only go 5 innings in their first few starts of the season, and we would still have Rocker closer to 5 hits allowed than 4 when taking a limited pitch count into consideration. We would probably set the 3.5 hits line at -250 if we were creating lines,” Fetner said. Other betting apps will only let you go over 4.5, but you can snag 3.5 on DraftKings.
No Run First Inning in Mariners vs. Tigers (-130 FanDuel)
This is a potentially thrilling pitching matchup between two young former first-round picks in Seattle’s Emerson Hancock and Detroit’s Jackson Jobe. Hancock was drafted No. 6 overall in 2020 and only gave up more than three earned runs total twice in 12 starts as a rookie in 2024 while Jobe went No. 3 overall in 2021 and is making his debut as a consensus top-five prospect in baseball.
“This is our top NRFI play in terms of model percentage,” Fetner said. “Emerson Hancock’s NRFI hit in 9 of his 12 starts last season, and while Jackson Jobe is making his first start, he is the top pitching prospect in baseball and facing off against a Mariners lineup that is hitting just .175 as a team despite their 2-2 record.”
Want more MLB picks for Monday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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