Two of the best teams in the National League so far this season will square off on Friday night when the Los Angeles Dodgers (10-4) host the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs (9-6) on Friday at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-1, 1.69 ERA) will take the mound for the Dodgers against Matthew Boyd (1-0, 0.00), who signed with the Cubs as a free agent in the offseason.
The Yamamoto-Boyd pitching matchup is one of 15 on Friday’s MLB slate. Elsewhere around the league, Robbie Ray (2-0, 3.18) and the Giants face Marcus Stroman (0-0, 7.27 ERA) and the Yankees. Aaron Nola (0-2, 6.35) and the Phillies battle Andre Pallante (1-0, 3.86) and the Cardinals, and Jacob deGrom (0-0, 3.38) and the Rangers take on Bryce Miller (0-2, 5.73) and the Mariners.
For the Cubs-Dodgers matchup, sportsbooks have set Boyd’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5, while Yamamoto’s is 5.5. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts rates as a 4.5-star play on the model’s 5-star scale, while Yamamoto Over 5.5 is as a 4-star play.
But neither prop is one of the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday’s schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props for Friday that the model has rated as 5 stars and another rated as 4.5 that returns plus-money. Here they are:
Robbie Ray Under 6.5 strikeouts (-128) vs. Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
The Yankees have crushed lefties this season. Their 14 home runs against southpaws lead all of baseball and are five more than the next best team (Dodgers). Also the Bombers’ .911 OPS against lefties ranks second in the majors behind the Athletics, who have a much smaller sample size. New York also hits much better at home; the club’s 1.006 home OPS leads the majors and dwarfs its road OPS (.713). None of that bodes well for Ray, who has just six strikeouts across 11.1 innings this season.
Bowden Francis Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts
Francis was one of the best pitchers in the majors down the stretch last season, and he has continued that quality pitching this year. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. That includes a seven-strikeout performance in 5.0 innings the last time he faced Baltimore, in August. Francis also is coming off a six-strikeout performance against the Mets in his last start.
Jacob deGrom Under 7.5 strikeouts (-147) vs. Mariners (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts
This line may be more of a reflection of reputation than performance. The oft-injured Rangers righty hasn’t struck out eight or more batters over his last six starts. The last time deGrom went Over 7.5 strikeouts was April 23, 2023. In addition, his strikeout percentage has dropped every year since a career-high 45.1% in 2021, bottoming out at 20.5% this season.
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