Major League Baseball’s exhibition season is only a day away from getting underway, bringing to an end the 2024-25 offseason. If you ask me, that makes now the perfect time to look ahead to next winter’s free-agent class.
Below, I’ve laid out my preseason top 10 free-agent rankings for the upcoming winter. At the risk of stating the obvious: a lot can change in nine months — in terms of which players make the cut; what trajectories they’re on; how I suspect their free agencies will play out; and so on. You know the drill: don’t grow attached to these names in this order.
In lieu of predicting which teams might be in on these players, I’ve included contract predictions. Rest assured: I didn’t just pull numbers from the ether. Instead, I leaned on comparative analysis with past signings. More often than not, I’ve included reference to which players (and deals) I considered to be the most relevant guideposts.
Let’s get to it.
The play: Guerrero’s game is as straightforward as it gets. He doesn’t run well and he’s never going to win another Gold Glove Award. So be it. He can really hit, and he’s both durable and young (he won’t celebrate his 27th birthday until after signing a long-term contract). Guerrero has a fast bat and impressive barrel control, a combination granting him above-average contact rates and power to all fields. Those old, seemingly overzealous comparisons to Miguel Cabrera have aged surprisingly well — to the extent that it seems reasonable to project Guerrero as a major piece of a team’s lineup for the next decade.
The pay: Guerrero will be a fascinating case study: the public estimates about his next deal are at odds with the history of how front offices view his general profile (i.e. right-handed first basemen). To wit, Pete Alonso’s $27 million is the richest ever for a free-agent first baseman; Guerrero will make more ($28.5 million) in his final arbitration-eligible season. On top of his skill set and age, his distinction as the closest thing to an elite hitter the market will feature for a few years ought to work in his favor. I assume he’ll become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear a $35 million AAV, and he might soar even higher than that. For now, I’ll err on the conservative side. Prediction: 12 years, $456 million ($38 million AAV)
The play: Tucker was on the shortlist of best players to change teams over the offseason. He impacts the game in all phases, from contributing in each of the triple-slash categories; to having the power and speed to notch multiple 20-20 seasons; to playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in a corner. Last year would’ve represented his fourth consecutive five-plus WAR season were it not for a right shin fracture that limited him to 78 games.
The pay: Count Tucker as another potentially interesting case study. In terms of production, he’s undeniably one of the best 12 or so players in the sport. I’m not sure that he has the perception to match — in a sense, that makes him the inverse of Guerrero. I can theorize on why that is: he’s a low-key individual who has played alongside more established stars for the duration of his career in Houston; his game is broad rather than concentrated in a way that would have him ranked atop statistical leaderboards; and so on. My guess is some will find this prediction too aggressive at first blush — and I think that supports my point about his perception working against him. Prediction: Nine years, $333 million ($37 million AAV)
The play: Cease, now a two-time top-five finisher in Cy Young Award balloting, has elite stuff that has empowered him to average nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. Last season, he posted the best walk rate of his big-league career, issuing a free pass about every three innings. Despite Cease’s past wildness, he’s managed an ERA+ of 110 or better in four of his five full-length seasons. Another high-end season will solidify Cease as the best pitcher in this class — for now, it appears to be a three-arm race.
The pay: Cease has maintained this whole “right-handed Blake Snell” thing for years now. It’s not a perfect comparison for my purposes because Snell had better statistics and more prestige entering last winter (what with winning two Cy Young Awards and all). Nevertheless, there’s enough validity to it for me to employ Snell’s contract (and specifically his present-day value) as a template. Prediction: Five years, $160 million ($32 million AAV)
The play: Whereas Cease plies his trade with a stuff-over-location approach, Gallen is situated on the other side of the spectrum. He missed time last season because of a hamstring injury, but he’ll still enter the new year having averaged 31 starts per campaign since 2022. Over that same time span, he ranks eighth in ERA+ among pitchers with 300 or more innings — that puts him ahead of Cease and every other pitcher represented on this list.
The pay: A potential value deflater with Gallen has to do with how tepidly the pitch-quality models view his arsenal. Clearly that hasn’t prevented him from being a top starter for the duration of his career. All the same, I do wonder if some teams might not have the stomach to bet on it continuing. Anyway, for now I’m expecting a similar contract to what Snell received here, too. Prediction: Five years, $160 million ($32 million AAV)
The play: Valdez, a two-time All-Star, is a lefty sinkerballer without an impressive Baseball Savant page. He seldom averages so much as a strikeout per frame, and he regularly surrenders higher-than-average exit velocities. Valdez nevertheless is one of the better starters in baseball because of geometry. Put another way, batters might strike his pitches hard, but they usually do so at angles that lead directly into the dirt, taking the sting out of their batted balls and rendering them fieldable ground outs. As an added bonus, he’s averaged 30 starts per season the last three years.
The pay: Valdez doesn’t have a Cy Young Award on his mantle, and he may not have the same brand-name recognition as Corbin Burnes does overall. Line up their statistics from the last three seasons, however, and you might be surprised at the similarities. Indeed, they have identical ERA+ and near-identical workloads. (Burnes possesses a better strikeout-to-walk ratio.) Will Valdez keep up by matching Burnes’ six-year, $210 million pact? I’m not so sure, but he ought to come close based on the numbers. Prediction: Six years, $192 million ($32 million AAV)
The play: Following a brilliant start to Buehler’s career, he’s since dealt with his share of injuries. Last year, he salvaged a terrible regular season with a strong showing in the playoffs. It’s anyone’s guess what trajectory Buehler will follow from this point forward. At the same time, the pitch-quality models are still fond of his arsenal and he’s maintained above-average control. That combination could help him reestablish himself as a front-of-the-rotation starter in his new surroundings.
The pay: Buehler snagged what amounted to the qualifying offer (one year, $21 million) last offseason after an abysmal regular season. Clearly teams are infatuated with his arsenal and his makeup. Now, imagine his market if he goes out there this year and performs like it’s 2019 or 2021? I think it’s fair to write that Buehler has the widest error bars of anyone on here. Perhaps I’m too sweet on his chances of delivering, but I think the Tyler Glasnow extension (four years, $111.6 million) may serve as a decent template. Prediction: Four years, $115 million ($28.75 million AAV)
The play: The quality of King’s arsenal has never been in doubt. He has three above-average offerings in a sinker, slider, and sweeper. What remains under examination is his durability, and specifically if he has the ability to stay healthy while assuming a starter’s workload. King was up for the task last season. Can he do it again this year? If so, he should find his stock on the rise.
The pay: This is a crucial season for King. After spending much of his career coming out of relief, he’s averaging barely 70 innings per year of service, and that’s including 173 ⅔ in 2024. King has asserted himself as a dynamic talent when he is hearty and hale; he just has to prove he can do it again for a full season. As with Buehler, I think teams might use Glasnow’s extension as a framework here. Because Buehler has the longer track record, I felt it was only right to give him a little more projected coin. Prediction: Four years, $110 million ($27.5 million AAV)
The play: Prior to last season, Bichette had established himself as a steady All-Star shortstop on his way to achieving generational wealth. I think it’s good news that many of his underlying measures remained static in 2024 despite his poor topline results. The bad news is … well, he still had those poor topline results. Bichette now has even more riding on his platform season. If he can get back to hitting .290-plus with a ton of doubles, he should be able to return to his old path — and, just as importantly, render last year as nothing more than an ill-advised detour.
The pay: Bichette’s dismal year gives him wider error bars than any other hitter on this list. I’m working under the assumption that he has a rebound season, in which case I think teams will be more forgiving about what happened in 2024. From there, I think there are some obvious guideposts to employ: Willy Adames’ seven-year, $182 million deal with the Giants; Dansby Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million agreement with the Cubs; and so on. I’ll roll the dice and say he edges out both. Prediction: Seven years, $185 million ($26.4 million AAV)
The play: Realmuto’s best days appear to be behind him, but he’s still a quality player who brings something to the table on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he continues to show a feel for making quality contact (even if he’s prone to chasing and whiffing). His framing and blocking don’t grade well in the squat, yet he’s maintained a quick operation that allows him to post elite pop times and do his part in shutting down the opposition’s running game. Realmuto did appear in only 99 games last season, so it’ll be worth monitoring his workload and how his body holds up in 2025.
The pay: Everyone agrees that catcher is the most important position on the diamond … you just wouldn’t know it based on how they’re paid. Indeed, Realmuto already possesses the highest AAV in positional history: the $23.1 million mark he received in 2021. Depending on how this year goes, I could see him signing an inflated version of the three-year, $60 million pact Yadier Molina inked at a similar age back in 2017. Prediction: three years, $75 million ($25 million AAV)
The play: This list began with one offensive force and will end with another. Schwarber continues to walk and bop with the best of them. For perspective, only three batters have averaged more than 30 home runs and 100 walks over the last three years: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Schwarber. There’s certainly some risk here that Schwarber’s strikeout rate will get out of hand, sailing above 30% and limiting his offensive capacity. He’s managed to stave off that outcome throughout his career, and I don’t have a reason to believe that will change this season.
The pay: This past offseason had a number of useful reference points for Schwarber’s next deal, as two bat-only corner outfielder/DH types (Joc Pederson and Anthony Santander) fetched contracts worth $18.5 million annually. Schwarber beat that mark with his last deal, however, and I have to believe he’ll do it again. Something closer to/around Teoscar Hernández’s three-year, $66 million pact seems more realistic. I’ll give Schwarber a bump for being a lefty hitter. Prediction: three years, $72 million ($24 million)
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