The road to Munich is set. The 16 teams still standing in the Champions League were drawn on Friday, the 29 games still to play in the competition promising all sorts of drama before the new champions of Europe are crowned. With every team’s path to the final now set what better time could there be to take our best guess at who will be in the final on May 31? Let’s get into it.
Round of 16
Confirmed ties
- Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool
- Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
- PSV vs. Arsenal
- Feyenoord vs. Inter
- Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen
- Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille
- Benfica vs. Barcelona
Let’s start by clearing out what look to be the obvious ones. Club Brugge have just been absolutely mullered by Atalanta but somehow emerged victorious. Unless they have found some way to turn every shot into a goal you have to assume that Aston Villa will see them off.
Similarly Arsenal, hobbled in attack though they are, blitzed PSV in last season’s group stage. So long as their defense holds up they’ll be fine. The same is true for Inter against Feyenoord. Benfica evidently have the quality to push Barcelona all the way but Hansi Flick will surely learn the lessons of his side 5-4 win in the Estadio Da Luz, for instance, not asking Wojciech Szczesny to cover so much space as a sweeper keeper.
Based on their meetings this season you’d suspect there’s nothing to separate Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. There is, however, the tendency for the latter to freeze when they see Los Blancos on the European stage. That might not be needed anyway. Carlo Ancelotti’s men are really rounding into form of late. They should get it done.
That leaves three games that are a little tighter to call. Borussia Dortmund and Lille are the least sexy of those, the former’s European experience doesn’t count for nothing, but Lille have probably been the better team this season. As for the big boys, on form there’s a compelling case to be made for PSG being capable of knocking out Liverpool. The ideal version of this tie is one where Ousmane Dembele and Mohamed Salah duel it out to prove themselves the best forward in the world. If that happens you trust that the difference makers across the tie might just be Liverpool’s defenders.
The tie of the round is probably played across Germany. Bayern Munich have the superior attack but Xabi Alonso found a way to quell that in their last matchup, holding Harry Kane et al to just two shots. So often in the Champions League it comes down to a question of whose defense you trust. That will undoubtedly be Leverkusen’s. Mark them down as dark horses for a deep run.
Quarter finalists: Liverpool, Aston Villa, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Inter, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille, Barcelona
Quarter finals
Predicted ties
- Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
- Real Madrid vs. Arsenal
- Barcelona vs. Lille
- Inter vs. Bayer Leverkusen
You’d fear the worst for Lille against Barcelona, for all the obduracy of Les Dogues against Real Madrid and Liverpool, this would surely be a step too far. The other imbalanced tie looks to be Liverpool vs. Aston Villa. Since the height of lockdown-ball weirdness — the 7-2 win at Villa Park — it has been all Liverpool in this matchup with a record of six wins and three draws. In those games they’ve scored 19 and conceded nine, easing through the contests in xG terms by an average of 0.89.
Arsenal’s trip to the Santiago Bernabeu would be rich in narrative, particularly for Thierry Henry and, unfortunately for the Emirates Stadium faithful, William Saliba. You can already see how he has two exceptional games to turn the Madrid press dizzy and it really isn’t enough. If any defense might slow Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe’s it’s Arsenal’s. The problem is at some stage over the 180 minutes they’d have to outscore the fab four. Unless Bukayo Saka returns and is immediately his old self and Gabriel Martinelli comes back his 2021-22 self, it’s hard to see that happening.
Inter and Bayer Leverkusen played each other pretty even in the league phase — at least until last minute Neverlusen stuff — but the Serie A contenders are another team to get no real joy out of that backline. Alonso really seems to have a team that are tailor made for the Champions League. They hoard possession, they give up nothing at the other end (except on that weird night against Liverpool) and they can get a moment or two of genius from their forwards. This will be relevant for the semifinal too.
Semifinalists: Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen
Semifinals
Predicted ties
- Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
- Barcelona vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Now this is the good stuff. Right now Liverpool look to be the best team in Europe, and at the very offset it is worth noting that they were vastly superior when they met Real Madrid in November. The trajectory of these two teams looks rather different now though and come the spring this really ought to be too close to call. In such cases it’s rarely a bad idea to just pick Madrid, but it’s worth offering a little more ballast to the vibes.
If this game were played right now Liverpool would feel they had the best attacker on the pitch but what happens if Salah is injured or even just not the clear Ballon d’Or frontrunner? If anything happened to any of Madrid’s front four, though, you’d feel they could weather the storm. After all, this team just won the Champions League without Mbappe.
That means the Clasico final is on. I’d love to offer that to you. I really would. It’s just you and I know that Alonso’s style of play works very well against the transition heavy, all energy style that Flick has implemented in Barcelona. We know that an elite level defense tends to be well rewarded in the Champions League. We know that Bayer Leverkusen have that thing they do in the 90th minute.
Finalists: Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen
Final
Anyway this final is pretty replete with talking points. A rerun of 2002 means you won’t be able to escape that Zinedine Zidane volley. Xabi Alonso coming up against the team he may well manage in the near future. Two teams who have no knowledge of when they’re beaten, this would be a thriller.
And yet, Madrid would look like the obvious winners, surely? There’s a risk of over-indexing their excellence against post-prime Manchester City over the past fortnight, but there is no more knowable commodity in big European finals than Real Madrid. There wouldn’t be a player on that pitch who knows what it’s like to see the team in white losing this game. Madrid know how to win the biggest games and this group of players already has a taste for it. If they get this far, it’s hard to see what stops them.
Winner: Real Madrid
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