The first UFC pay-per-view of the year is fast approaching. UFC 311 is built as a card that should appeal to hardcore fight fans, with fantastic pairings of familiar names from the prelims through the main event.
The card also got a massive makeover on Friday afternoon when Arman Tsarukyan was forced to withdraw from his lightweight title fight with champion Islam Makhachev after suffering a back injury. Now, Makhachev will take on veteran Renato Moicano instead, who was originally scheduled to face Beneil Dariush on the main card.
The co-main event also features a title fight, with Merab Dvalishvili making the first defense of the bantamweight championship he won from Sean O’Malley last year. Dvalishvili will enter the Octagon as an underdog to fast-rising star Umar Nurmagomedov, who is looking to replicate the championship success of his cousin, former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
With the adjustments to the main event, the undercard also saw some tweaks. Dariush won’t remain on the card, but White said that he will be taken care of and get rebooked soon. Replacing Moicano vs. Dariush on the main card will be heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac. Plus, former light heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill are set to throw down. That matchup has the interesting wrinkle that neither fighter lost their title in the ring and instead were forced to vacate after suffering injury.
Those two title fights cap a card that looks to kick off 2025’s PPV schedule with a bang.
And we’re also looking to get the year off to a great start after a losing campaign for our 2024 best bets. With that in mind, we’ve identified our choice as the best bet for all five of UFC 311’s main card fights. Read on for our picks.
Note: This article was published before the main event change and reshuffle of the main card.
UFC 311: Islam Makhachev to defend title against Renato Moicano in main event after Arman Tsarukyan injury
Shakiel Mahjouri
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Kevin Holland moneyline (-108)
Holland is coming off a frustrating loss to Roman Dolidze in which he suffered a rib injury during a ground scramble in the first round and the fight was stopped in the corner before the start of the second. That loss ran Holland’s record to 3-5 over his eight most recent fights and things have crashed down since an incredible 2020 campaign that saw him win five fights between May and December. Still, in de Ridder, Holland faces someone who struggled badly in his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder did manage to escape with a third-round submission win, but the flaws he displayed in his striking were clear and Holland is the type of fighter who can take advantage of those deficiencies. De Ridder did land more strikes than Meerschaert but was badly rocked multiple times. There are clear paths to victory for both men, with Holland needing to use his length to outstrike de Ridder and de Ridder needing to score takedowns and keep the fight on the ground. Holland is likely crafty enough to survive if he gets put on his back while de Ridder has to deal with every round starting on the feet and having to do the work to try and make it a fight on the ground. Because of that, we’ll ride with Holland to get the job done.
Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
Jiri Prochazka moneyline (+110)
Prochazka is an admittedly flawed fighter, especially because of his low regard for defensive responsibility. Prochazka is happy to take two, three or even four punches to land one of his own, which is a style that doesn’t serve many fighters well, but it has done great for him in the UFC outside of fights with Alex Pereira. Hill has been largely dominant in his own right, only dropping fights to Pereira and Paul Craig in his pro career. Hill has been sidelined due to injury and the fighters he defeated along the path to winning the light heavyweight title — which he vacated due to injury — weren’t exactly a murderer’s row of the best the UFC has to offer. In just shy of two years, Hill has only fought once due to his injuries, and that fight lasted just over three minutes before Pereira knocked him out. That’s a lot of rust against a fighter with the aggressive approach Prochazka brings to the table. Getting Prochazka as a slight dog feels like value we can’t pass up.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov via decision (-135)
Is Dvalishvili hurt coming into this fight? Is Nurmagomedov? Are they both? Is neither? There are some weird unknowns entering the fight if you’ve been listening to both men talk in recent weeks, but Nurmagomedov is a clear favorite. Dvalishvili brings a wild pressure approach to his fights, throwing takedown attempts at opponents until one gets the job done. Nurmagomedov also thrives on takedowns but isn’t quite as aggressive in going all-out with attempt after attempt. With both men having fantastic wrestling, both offensively and defensively, the fight may well come down to creativity on the feet and Nurmagomedov has a wider range of striking tools. Both are also too tough to think a finish is likely and that means we lean toward the more likely winner and the more likely method of victory. Nurmagomedov via decision is the play.
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