The first UFC pay-per-view of the year is fast approaching. UFC 311 is built as a card that should appeal to hardcore fight fans, with fantastic pairings of familiar names from the prelims through the main event.
In that main event, lightweight champion Islam Makhachev will put his title on the line against Arman Tsarukyan. The pair has met previously, with Makhachev winning a tough fight by unanimous decision in April 2019. Since then, both fighters have continued to make clear cases as elite fighters at 155 pounds and now rematch with championship gold on the line.
The co-main event also features a title fight, with Merab Dvalishvili making the first defense of the bantamweight championship he won from Sean O’Malley last year. Dvalishvili will enter the Octagon as an underdog to fast-rising star Umar Nurmagomedov, who is looking to replicate the championship success of his cousin, former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Those two title fights cap a card that looks to kick off 2025’s PPV schedule with a bang.
And we’re also looking to get the year off to a great start after a losing campaign for our 2024 best bets. With that in mind, we’ve identified our choice as the best bet for all five of UFC 311’s main card fights. Read on for our picks.
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Kevin Holland moneyline (-108)
Holland is coming off a frustrating loss to Roman Dolidze in which he suffered a rib injury during a ground scramble in the first round and the fight was stopped in the corner before the start of the second. That loss ran Holland’s record to 3-5 over his eight most recent fights and things have crashed down since an incredible 2020 campaign that saw him win five fights between May and December. Still, in de Ridder, Holland faces someone who struggled badly in his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder did manage to escape with a third-round submission win, but the flaws he displayed in his striking were clear and Holland is the type of fighter who can take advantage of those deficiencies. De Ridder did land more strikes than Meerschaert but was badly rocked multiple times. There are clear paths to victory for both men, with Holland needing to use his length to outstrike de Ridder and de Ridder needing to score takedowns and keep the fight on the ground. Holland is likely crafty enough to survive if he gets put on his back while de Ridder has to deal with every round starting on the feet and having to do the work to try and make it a fight on the ground. Because of that, we’ll ride with Holland to get the job done.
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano moneyline (-162)
After an eight-fight winning streak that saw him on the edge of title contention, Dariush has suffered back-to-back first-round stoppage losses. This fight with Moicano likely represents Dariush’s final chance to move back to that level but it’s a tall task to pick up a win over someone on a hot streak like Moicano. After an 8-5 start to his Octagon career, Moicano has won four straight fights over tough opponents. Rewind a few years and Dariush would be comfortably favored in this fight, but in the present, he is a +136 underdog. We’re giving the edge to Moicano mostly based on the damage the back-to-back knockout losses have done to Dariush, but Moicano does leave himself open enough to strikes that if Dariush starts rolling, he could take the fight over in a hurry.
Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
Jiri Prochazka moneyline (+110)
Prochazka is an admittedly flawed fighter, especially because of his low regard for defensive responsibility. Prochazka is happy to take two, three or even four punches to land one of his own, which is a style that doesn’t serve many fighters well, but it has done great for him in the UFC outside of fights with Alex Pereira. Hill has been largely dominant in his own right, only dropping fights to Pereira and Paul Craig in his pro career. Hill has been sidelined due to injury and the fighters he defeated along the path to winning the light heavyweight title — which he vacated due to injury — weren’t exactly a murderer’s row of the best the UFC has to offer. In just shy of two years, Hill has only fought once due to his injuries, and that fight lasted just over three minutes before Pereira knocked him out. That’s a lot of rust against a fighter with the aggressive approach Prochazka brings to the table. Getting Prochazka as a slight dog feels like value we can’t pass up.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov via decision (-135)
Is Dvalishvili hurt coming into this fight? Is Nurmagomedov? Are they both? Is neither? There are some weird unknowns entering the fight if you’ve been listening to both men talk in recent weeks, but Nurmagomedov is a clear favorite. Dvalishvili brings a wild pressure approach to his fights, throwing takedown attempts at opponents until one gets the job done. Nurmagomedov also thrives on takedowns but isn’t quite as aggressive in going all-out with attempt after attempt. With both men having fantastic wrestling, both offensively and defensively, the fight may well come down to creativity on the feet and Nurmagomedov has a wider range of striking tools. Both are also too tough to think a finish is likely and that means we lean toward the more likely winner and the more likely method of victory. Nurmagomedov via decision is the play.
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev via decision (-120)
The first fight between these two was a competitive contest with Tsarukyan making Makhachev work for every inch of his decision victory. Since then, Makhachev has gone 9-0, winning the lightweight title and beating some of the best fighters on the planet. Tsarukyan, meanwhile, has gone 9-1, though against slightly lesser competition and earned the title shot with a razor thin split decision win over Charles Oliveira (who Makhachev submitted in the second round). Both men have only been stopped once in their career, so it’s likely that the fight does go the distance. Add in that we saw how complicated the fight was for both men the first time around and there’s no reason to expect either man to have an easy night. Makhachev was the better man the first time they met and, as good as Tsarukyan is, seems to still be the better fighter. Makhachev via decision in a fight he takes over after a tense round or two.
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