UFC 312 predictions — Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

Two championship bouts highlight the action when UFC 312 comes to Australia. The night’s main event features a rematch between middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis and the man he defeated to win the title, Sean Strickland.

du Plessis took the first fight by split decision in a very close fight that left Strickland claiming he was robbed by the judges. He earned his way back to the rematch with a bounce-back split decision win over Paulo Costa. du Plessis’ only fight since the first meeting with Strickland saw him successfully defend the title against two-time former champion Israel Adesanya.

The co-main event features a fantastic fight between women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili and top contender Tatiana Suarez. Suarez is a slight favorite as the event draws near but it’s hard to imagine a better fight in the division in this moment.

The rest of the main card features some familiar names, especially for Australian crowds, including heavyweight Justin Tafa and welterweight Jake Matthews.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 312 fight card, odds

• Dricus du Plessis (c) -210 vs. Sean Strickland +175, middleweight title
• Tatiana Suarez -120 vs. Zhang Weili (c) +100, women’s strawweight title
• Tallison Teixeira -130 vs. Justin Tafa +110, heavyweights
• Rodolfo Bellato -170 vs. Jimmy Crute +140, light heavyweights
• Jake Matthews -230 vs. Francisco Prado +190, welterweights
• Gabriel Santos -230 vs. Jack Jenkins +190, featherweights
• Hyunsung Park -230 vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel +190, flyweights
• Aleksandre Topuria -425 vs. Cody Haddon +330, bantamweights
• Viacheslav Borshchev -135 vs. Tom Nolan +115, lightweights
• Quillan Salkilld -550 vs. Anshul Jubli +400, lightweights
• Wang Cong -500 vs. Bruna Brasil +380, women’s flyweights
• Kevin Jousset -250 vs. Jonathan Micallef +200, welterweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 312 picks, predictions

Du Plessis vs. Strickland

Campbell: For as close as their first middleweight title bout was in January 2024, du Plessis appeared to land the bigger strikes while relying on timely takedowns to prevent Strickland from gaining control. The same equation for DDP is in place for the rematch, only the native of South Africa continues to improve and evolve at a rapid pace. Nothing about what du Plessis does is textbook or orthodox, but that has ultimately been the reason why he has been so successful through eight walks to the Octagon. Strickland should be able to keep the fight close. However, the more Strickland looks to push the pace in hopes of bettering his chances in the eyes of the judges, the more opportunities DDP will have to match him power versus power. And when it comes to doing damage, du Plessis simply has more weapons. 

Brookhouse: These are two fighters with awkward styles that are hard for someone to duplicate in camp. Luckily, they’ve seen each other before and know what it’s like to share the Octagon. I do think that du Plessis brings a more difficult style in how wild he is and how his game does evolve fight over fight. Meanwhile, Strickland is just very good at jabbing and poking while in a tight shell defense. It also is a factor that du Plessis simply hits harder, which makes him a bigger threat to do fight-changing damage at any point. Strickland obviously is good enough to win but his style is one where he often fails to make a strong case that he obviously won the fight. du Plessis is simply the better bet to get the job done.

Zhang vs. Suarez

Campbell: After eight frustrating years as a UFC fighter, filled with countless injuries and layoffs, Suarez will get her first shot at championship gold. The fact that she’s a slight betting favorite in doing so despite having been idle for the past 18 months speaks to just how dominant Suarez has been the few stretches she has had of consistency. Suarez is an imposing physical force with incredible grappling skills and a hunger to be great. For as decorated a two-time champion as Zhang has been, Suarez possesses everything necessary to become the new champion. And her often heartbreaking journey has only fueled an even bigger level of resolve to keep pushing forward. This one will likely go the full five rounds and should give us a true indication of just how great a healthy Suarez can be. 

Mahjouri: Each fighter’s strength shines in this competitive scrap. That’s why I’ll side with the more well-rounded champ. Suarez is a phenomenal wrestler, but I’m not sold on her striking. It looked rudimentary and uncomfortable against Jessica Andrade. She’s also never gone more than three rounds. Zhang is a juggernaut boxer who has diligently improved her wrestling. Still, Yan Xiaonan’s three successful takedowns against the champ are concerning. Suarez will probably take Zhang down in the early rounds but I suspect the champ will hold out. Zhang has only been stopped once in 28 fights and never by submission. I see Zhang catching Suarez early with a one-hitter quitter, or breaking her late for a TKO.

Teixeira vs. Tafa

Campbell: For the fourth time in 10 walks to the Octagon, Tafa will compete on Australian soil where the native New Zealander now calls home. Tafa, like his brother and fellow UFC heavyweight Junior, can very much be feast or famine when it comes to results inside the cage given his incredible power. Unbeaten Brazilian Tallison Teixeira will make his UFC debut opposite Tafa on Saturday following a victory last September on the “Dana White Contender Series.” Despite being a slight betting underdog, Tafa has the requisite power to spoil Teixeira’s debut without even trying all that hard. With three knockout wins in the first round over his last five fights, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Tafa continue that trend.  

Brookhouse: Teixeira is a towering heavyweight with serious stopping power. This kind of mid-level heavyweight fight always has a chaotic element where either man can score one big shot and end the fight in an unpredictable way but that’s where you start to look at all the measurables. Tafa is a willing fighter but not a special one and he’s facing a man who can keep him at distance with a massive reach advantage. It’s hard to see this one going well for Tafa.