The UFC Octagon returns to Australia this Saturday for UFC 312. The card is headlined by a pair of title fights, including Dricus du Plessis defending the middleweight championship in a rematch with former champion Sean Strickland.
Du Plessis won their first fight, taking a narrow split decision at UFC 297 to capture the championship. He followed up that victory by defeating Israel Adesanya by submission at UFC 304. Strickland bounced back from the defeat by taking a split decision win over Paulo Costa to position himself for a chance to regain the belt.
The co-main event features Zhang Weili defending the women’s strawweight title against top contender Tatiana Suarez. The American won “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 23 in her UFC debut and has won all seven of her UFC bouts. Weili is on her second run as champion and is one of the best strawweights in UFC history.
Due to changes to the UFC 311 card after publishing our best bets, we only went 1-2 to kick off the year. We’ll be looking to kick the best bets curse starting with UFC 312 and get 2025 into the positive.
UFC 312 — Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2: Five biggest storylines to watch in Australia
Brian Campbell
With all that in mind, let’s get to our picks for the best bets on the main card of UFC 312.
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Jake Matthews moneyline (-238)
The booking is good in that the fight should be exciting and fire up the Aussie crowd at the start of the main card with one of their favorite fighting sons (Matthews) in action. It’s wild that Matthews has been on the UFC roster for more than a decade and with 20 fights in the promotion already under his belt. Prado falls firmly under the umbrella of the type of fighters Matthews tends to beat and enters the fight with a 1-2 UFC record. Matthews has the edge in experience, quality of record, striking and wrestling. With all of that, plus the home crowd advantage, it’s hard to not see getting Matthews under -250 as good value.
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Under 1.5 rounds (+110)
Seven of Crute’s nine UFC fights have ended in less than a round and a half while Bellato’s lone UFC bout ended before the third round. Crute has gone four fights without a win, going 0-3-1 in that stretch and him being an underdog is a definite reaction to that rough stretch after a 4-1 start to his UFC career. Similar to the previous fight, this is one where a UFC veteran is facing a relative newcomer who has not proven himself against quality opposition. This does feel like a fight with a high probability to end in the first half of the bout, so getting that at +110 is appealing. Light heavyweights can end fights quickly and both of these men have the ability to do just that, whether it’s Crute finally finding his way back to the win column or Bellato scoring the best win of his career.
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
Tallison Teixeira moneyline (-142)
Heavyweight action always carries a lot of unpredictability. Tafa has not been particularly good in his UFC run, going 4-4 in the Octagon but when he lands, he always has the chance to finish a fight. The problem for Tafa entering this fight is that Teixeira is 6-foot-7 and can use that length to keep Tafa from getting inside and letting his hands go. Teixeira is also a finisher, having won all seven of his professional fights inside the first round. Neither fighter is likely to seek to take the fight to the floor and on the feet, Teixeira’s length is enough to tilt the entire fight in his favor against an incomplete fighter who needs to get in close to put in significant work.
Zhang Weili (c) vs. Tatiana Suarez
Over 3.5 rounds (-140)
Being honest, the first three fights of this main card are well below the standard that should be expected or accepted for a pay-per-view event. The top two fights are fantastic pairings, however, and both are tough calls. The entire key to this fight is whether Weili can handle Suarez’s takedowns. Suarez averages more than six takedown attempts per 15 minutes while Weili only defends takedowns at a 50% clip. Yan Xiaonan took Weili down three times in Weili’s most recent outing and Suarez is a better wrestler. Weili can absolutely crack and has the power to finish the fight at any moment, but it’s going to be hard for her to settle and unload strikes when she’s being pressured by Suarez. For that reason, Suarez at -120 is a good play, but I also trust Weili’s pedigree to mean she could figure out the fight as the minutes tick by and she could wear Suarez down late to take a decision or score a stoppage. For that reason, the lean here is toward the fight going over 3.5 rounds, with Suarez managing to slow Weili’s striking enough and look to control the fight on the ground while the fight goes into the late stages.
Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Sean Strickland
Dricus du Plessis moneyline (-200)
These two have met once before, which somewhat negates the idea of their awkward styles surprising each other. The first meeting was razor-thin, with du Plessis taking the decision but I think this will be a far more definitive result. Strikland doesn’t really have a second gear, which has worked for him just fine in frustrating opponents with a steady diet of jabs and a tight shell defense. du Plessis is able to be a bit more dynamic in his wild and often reckless attack and can do so knowing how fighting Strickland feels. The most appealing line here is probably du Plessis via decision at +150 but there’s a sense that du Plessis could finish Strickland this time around so it may be better to play it safe with the straight moneyline.
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