UFC Fight Night — Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg: Fight card, predictions, odds, start time, live stream

Brandon Moreno is a former two-time UFC flyweight champion. Despite his phenomenal success, Moreno has never won a UFC fight in his home country of Mexico. On Saturday, Moreno has a fifth chance to right that wrong at UFC Fight Night in Mexico City.

Moreno (22-8-2) has been a top flyweight all decade but isn’t dominant. He edged Deiveson Figueiredo 2-1-1 in a four-fight championship series before losing his next two fights by split decision. Moreno announced an indefinite hiatus after narrowly losing to Brandon Royval in Mexico. Moreno’s break didn’t last long, but he looked rejuvenated after a thorough outclassing of Amir Albazi nine months later. Against Erceg, Moreno has a chance to find consistency before angling for a third flyweight title.

“I’m just trying to think about the present,” Moreno told CBS Sports’ Brian Campbell. “I’m staying focused on Steve Erceg. I didn’t leave my family for one month to come here and play.

“The flyweight division is weird right now. We have Manel Kape and Kai Kara-France, who I believe deserve opportunities to fight for the title. At the same time, I want the same thing. I really believe getting the victory this weekend gives me the opportunity to raise my hand and talk with the company.”

The Erceg (12-3) story might be one of too much, too soon. The compelling contender had his UFC debut on short notice in June 2023. He was standing across from UFC flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja nine months later. Erceg’s stock went up in a competitive loss to the champ, but a subsequent first-round knockout loss to Kai Kara-France set him back. Erceg fights an elite flyweight for the third time straight despite coming off consecutive losses and a KO, two first time woes in his career.

“I’m fighting the best people in the world. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. It’s all character building,” Erceg told CBS Sports. “I was obviously on a very big high going into the Pantoja fight and even after losing to him. People thought I won. You’re feeling pretty good. Then you go and lose again. To know I’m not the guy who gets depressed, and I can keep improving through those things, is an important lesson.

“Yes, I’ve had to take losses. Maybe if I had come up slower, I wouldn’t have lost those fights, but I’m going to learn a lot more about myself and I think I’m mentally strong enough to deal with those losses.”

Check out the full interview with Brandon Moreno below.

UFC Fight Night isn’t loaded, but a few fights deserve your attention. There’s a high probability that Drew Dober vs. Manuel Torres will be exciting. Known commodities Joe Pyfer and Raul Rosas Jr. continue their development against Kelvin Gastelum and Vince Morales, respectively.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we predict the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: March 29 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Arena CDMX — Mexico City
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg: Moreno is incredibly well-rounded. It’s empowered and stilted him against the very best. Moreno has proven finishing ability, but lately finds himself in point fights. Erceg’s boxing has improved dramatically to the point he’s most recognized as a striker despite having three times as many submission finishes. Moreno’s lack of wrestling or striking dominance bodes well for Erceg’s style, but he hasn’t proved he can keep pace with this level of competition. Moreno is more refined, experienced and defensively responsible. The fight will be close if Moreno can’t exploit Erceg’s inexperience. But I anticipate Moreno has the deep skillset required to win regardless. Moreno via Unanimous Decision