UFC Fight Night prediction — Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy: Fight card, odds, start time, live stream

Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy seek a statement win in the wide-open featherweight division. Emmett and Murphy headline UFC Fight Night on Saturday, one week before Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes fight for control of the vacant featherweight title.

Emmett (19-4) is a curious case. He delivered an all-time visually spectacular knockout against Bryce Mitchell, then disappeared for 15 months. Emmett, 40, needed time to heal various injuries but wouldn’t elaborate on his troubles. The Mitchell win was a needed remedy after consecutive losses to former interim champion Yair Rodriguez and former undisputed champion Ilia Topuria.

“I want to be a featherweight world champion,” Emmett told CBS Sports. “I owe it to myself, wife, coaches, UFC and fans. I’m 100%. I’ve been training the way used to train and I’ll fight the way I used to fight. For the last handful of years, I haven’t been at my best.

“I’ve been a fraction of myself. It’ll show on Saturday. Once you see how I move and fight, you’ll know something is different.”

Check out the full interview with Josh Emmett below.

Murphy’s featherweight rise is a slow burn. That’s still true as he likely hopes to graduate from No. 10 to No. 8 in the UFC’s official featherweight rankings. Murphy is one of the division’s best technical boxers, but his inability to finish elite opponents has limited his celebrity. Murphy acknowledges the missing puzzle piece, yet believes a title shot is on the table if he wins on Saturday.

“That’s the only thing I’ve been missing, the finishes,” Murphy told CBS Sports. “I believe there are some technical adjustments I could have made to get the finishes, particularly the submissions. I should have finished more fights. I always look to try and finish fights, but when you’re escalating competitions, it gets harder to do.

“God willing, in a perfect world, I come out of this year champion. If not, just two wins will do me, and I’ll be ready to challenge for the championship early next year. If I keep winning, that will get me where I need to go.”

The 145-pound division is in an interesting place. Topuria unexpectedly vacated the featherweight title in February to prepare for a full-time lightweight campaign. UFC CEO Dana White subsequently announced Volkanovski vs. Lopes for the vacant title at UFC 314. Topuria and Max Holloway’s moves to lightweight, and Volkanovski’s consecutive KO losses present fresh opportunities for previously stonewalled featherweight contenders. Still, it’s hard to believe Emmett or Murphy will get a title shot ahead of Movsar Evloev (No. 4).

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we preview and predict the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: April 5 | Start time: 9 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy: I acknowledge Murphy as the rightful betting favorite, but I’m surprised by the margins. Emmett is a tank, even at 40 years old, in a division skewing young. Murphy’s superior technical striking, elusiveness and sturdy chin serve him well in his second main event. Emmett has a wealth of experience, shocking power and looks legitimately rejuvenated after his hiatus. Emmett’s been in serious wars, painting an interesting paradox in his striking defense stats. His striking defense percentage is on par with Murphy’s, a solid 61%, but he absorbs two more strikes per minute. Murphy has taken far less damage in the Octagon, but has notably been knocked down twice. I believe Emmett has the higher ceiling even at 40. While Murphy could outpoint him over five rounds, I think Emmett can stay competitive and eventually find the one-hitter quitter. Emmett via KO3