Undervalued hitters for 2025 fantasy baseball: Time to buy Austin Wells or Pavin Smith?

We’re entering the final weekend of fantasy baseball drafts, which means there is still time to identify some draft values. However, it also means that the initial waiver wire runs are going to happen in many leagues and there could still be hitters out there who will provide you value for the 2025 season.

In order to find those hitters, I created a custom leaderboard on FanGraphs of some of my favorite process-oriented stats: barrel rate, max exit velocity, swinging strike rate, overall contact rate, and O-Swing% (or chase rate). To me, these are the most important stats when looking at a hitter’s process because we can see who is forcing pitchers to throw them pitches in the strike zone, who is doing a good job of making contact on those pitches, and who is making authoritative contact when they do swing. All that should line up to produce hitters who are more likely to give you solid results.

After creating the leaderboard, I took the 2024 league average marks in all the categories and removed any hitter who wasn’t better than the league average in each one. Those marks were 7.6% barrel rate, 28.6% chase rate, 11.1% SwStr%, and a 76.8% contact rate. I then removed hitters who are consistently drafted inside the top 200 picks in fantasy baseball drafts. That left us with a list of 20 hitters who were average to above in my favorite hitter stats, regardless of their surface-level results

So let’s see which ones I’m really targeting in my drafts or early waiver wire runs.

Hitter Draft Values For 2025 Fantasy Baseball

A few of these hitters are players who I’ve already written about in detail, so I’m not going to rehash all of that here. I wrote a detailed article on Kyle Manzardo after interviewing him at spring training. I wrote about Trevor Larnach as one of my favorite late-round outfielders in my post-hype hitters article. I also discussed both Lars Nootbaar and Pavin Smith in my article on potential hitter breakouts entering their “prime” age seasons. I’m still relatively “in” on all of those hitters at their cost, so I’d encourage you to check out those articles to see why.

Jonathan Aranda – 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 336)

Jonathan Aranda is also somebody who appeared in that post-hype hitters article. In that article, I said: “In his 32 Triple-A games in 2024, Aranda hit .237 with seven home runs and a 32.6% strikeout rate, which is significantly worse than his typical minor league season. When he finally got MLB at-bats at the end of the season, he posted an impressive 16.5% barrel rate and showed improved plate discipline from his MLB at-bats in 2023. Aranda has good hard-hit rates and top-tier exit velocities when he gets the ball in the air, but he also posted a 49% groundball rate with the Rays. He pulls the ball often and, historically, has made a good deal of contact, so if Aranda can cut back on his groundball rate, he could hit 15+ home runs with a usable batting average.”

However, some things have happened this spring that are souring me a bit on Aranda. First of all, Tampa Bay has played him almost exclusively at 1B, which continues to tell us that his only real path to at-bats is either at 1B or DH. The Rays have Yandy Diaz locked up at 1B for the next three seasons, so that means Aranda only has a shot to get playing time as the primary DH. Yet, Aranda has been thoroughly outplayed this spring by Curtis Mead, who, well, really only has a shot to get at-bats by being the DH. Mead hits right-handed, which may work against him, but he’s also a better defender than Aranda, so he carries more overall value to the team. I’m just not sure I can now say with any confidence that Aranda will be the regular DH against right-handed pitching, which means it’s hard to take a player in a part-time role who has never had any sustained MLB success.

Austin Wells – C, New York Yankees (ADP: 162)

Wells is a hitter who has popped for me in a lot of places. To be fair, his 13 home runs and 9.1% barrel rate in 414 plate appearances last year should have already had him on our radars, but the .228 average was not ideal. Yet, what we have here is a catcher who hits left-handed and posted a 111 mph max exit velocity with a 40% pull rate and 43% fly ball rate last season. That’s going to play in Yankee Stadium. His 12% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is slightly above the league average and his 75.4% contact rate is slightly below the MLB average, but we’re dealing with a catcher and the offensive standards need to be adjusted for that position. Wells is making league-average swing decisions and league-average contact while hitting the ball harder than the league average. That’s pretty good at the catcher position, especially considering he has also been leading off for the Yankees, which should add extra value in terms of runs scored.

I will say that his ADP has been rising of late, and he was even drafted 101st overall in one NFBC league over the last week, while those are two-catcher formats that skew the data, it does suggest that he’s no longer a target for the “wait on catcher” crowd. However, with Francisco Alvarez, Sean Murphy, and Tyler Stephenson banged up, Wells is likely my favorite mid-tier catching target in drafts right now.

Joey Bart, who made it on this list is more of a two-catcher league target, but is somebody that I did want to point out because he seemed to get things going in Pittsburgh last year. The Pirates also have Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis at catcher as well, so there is always some playing time risk if Bart were to struggle, but his 2024 performance looks good under the hood and could be something we see repeated in 2025.

JJ Bleday – OF, “Sacramento” Athletics (ADP: 270)

Much like Austin Wells, JJ Bleday played well enough in 2024 that he had some fans coming into 2025. The 27-year-old finally broke through into a full-time role last season, hitting .243/.324/.437 with 20 home runs. Those numbers were better in 62 second-half games, with a .263/.343/.464 slash line to go along with nine home runs and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Bleday had just a 10.6% SwStr% and an above-average contact rate, which showcases a solid understanding of the strike zone and contact profile. He also improved his flyball rate to 47.8% and his pull rate jumped 4% to 44.3% in the second half of the season. His ability to start to lift the ball to the pull side is also important with the Athletics now moving to a minor league park in Sacramento. Even if it is not a top-tier offensive environment, it will be better than the one in Oakland, and that could lead to a 20-25 home run season.

Most projection systems have Bleday hitting under .230, but he hit .243 last year and hit .263 in the second half of the season, so I’m not sure why we are assuming he goes back to his 2023 form. He’s an improved player. If you give him a .240-.250 average with 20 home runs in a decent Athletics lineup, he’s a pretty good value as one of your final outfield picks

Bo Naylor – C, Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 298)

I will admit that I fudged a lot of the benchmarks for Naylor to appear in this article. He did have a 7.6% barrel rate, but his contact rate was too low, his swinging strike rate was too high and his max exit velocity was the second lowest of any hitter on this list. However, there are some things I like. For starters, a league-average barrel rate with a better-than-league-average chase rate is intriguing for a catcher. Naylor himself has also posted strong plate discipline metrics throughout his minor league career, so his 31.4% strikeout rate last year feels flukey. His 44% pull rate and 47.4% fly ball rate suggest power potential with that barrel rate, and Stephen Vogt was effusive in his praise for Naylor when I was at Guardians’ spring training. Last season was certainly a struggle for the 25-year-old, but learning to be an everyday catcher is difficult in terms of what it means for game-planning and defensive preparation. We frequently see young catchers take a little while to hit their stride offensively because catcher defense is stressed so much. I think that could be the case for Nalor with his new approach at the plate and added experience.

Josh Bell – 1B, Washington Nationals (ADP: 358)

I guess Josh Bell has reached the “boring veteran” stage of his career. In some ways, that’s understandable. He’s 32 years old and hasn’t hit over 22 home runs since 2021’s bouncy ball season. Still, he hit .249/.319/.405 with 19 home runs and 71 RBI last season while posting a league-average barrel rate and better than league-average contact rates and swinging strike rates. He chased a little bit more out of the zone than we’d like, but even that was better than league-average rates. So everything he’s doing is at least league average and now he’s moving back to Washington, which is the 6th-best park for hitters in baseball, according to Statcast Park Factors. Bell hit .261 in his full season in Washington in 2021 and his contact quality and profile are not much different from that year. I think it’s reasonable to expect him to hit between .250-.260 with 20 home runs while being the everyday DH for a solid but not exceptional lineup. That should allow him to push 140 Runs+RBI and means he’s not a bad UTIL or CI target if you waited until the end of your draft.

Jorge Polanco – 2B/3B, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 359)

I’m not entirely sure why we’re forgetting about Jorge Polanco. He’s a career .263/.330/.435 hitter, and while I know last year was a down season, he was also playing through a knee injury that clearly impacted him. Even despite that, he posted an 8.9% barrel rate, an above-average chase rate, and slightly below-average SwStr% and contact rates. We do need to point out that his overall contact rates and swinging strike rates have been headed in the wrong direction for the last two seasons, but for the vast majority of his career, he has been a 77% contact rate guy or better. In spring training this year, he has an 85% contact rate and just a 7.2% SwStr%, so perhaps a lot of that regression was due to injury.

Seattle is one of the worst offensive environments in baseball, so I don’t believe Polanco is getting back to his peak seasons; however, he could easily be a .260 hitter with 15+ home runs and 120 Runs+RBI in a decent lineup. Considering he will also be 2B/3B eligible early in the season after he starts the requisite number of games at third base, I think Polanco is a solid bench option in deeper formats; however, he may no longer be a shallow league option.

Ty France – 1B, Minnesota Twins (ADP: Undrafted)

It’s understandable that Ty France is not being drafted heavily in 12-team formats; however, it’s time we pay more attention to him in deeper leagues. The 30-year-old was signed in the off-season and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said that France was going to get most of the playing time at first base. France then went out and slashed .457/.500/.771 with two home runs and nine RBI in 38 spring plate appearances. With Royce Lewis also getting hurt, the Twins can use Jose Miranda at 3B or DH and give almost all of the 1B at-bats to France, especially if he’s hitting like this.

However, France appearing on this list suggests that the spring stats may not be entirely flukey. He got off to a solid start in 2024, hitting .251/.329/.403 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in 237 plate appearances with a 9.6% barrel rate before fracturing his heel at the beginning of June. He tried to play through the injury when he returned from the IL, but his results were much worse. If he can get 450 plate appearances or more, France could hit .250-.260 with 15+ home runs and 120 Runs+RBI, which is not a bad line for somebody who is going so late in drafts. In deeper formats, he’s especially worth a gamble because we know he has a starting job now, so you can see what he looks like for a week or two before deciding if you want to drop him for a hitter on the wire.

LaMonte Wade Jr. – OF, San Francisco Giants (ADP: Undrafted)

Perhaps LaMonte Wade no longer intriguing drafters in 12-team leagues is because he is just 1B-eligible now; however, he may also be entering the stage of his career where he is a boring veteran who can’t stay healthy. Wade has played more than 120 games once in his career and was limited to 401 plate appearances last year. Some of that has to do with him not starting versus left-handed pitchers, but he also seems to be banged up a few times a year. However, he remains a productive hitter.

His plate discipline is elite with a 15.5% walk rate last year, 19.7% chase rate, 89% zone contact rate, and 78% contact rate. That helped lead to just a 9% SwStr%. Whatever way you slice it, Wade Jr. makes a good deal of contact and makes strong swing decisions. He also has a career 9.4% barrel rate and hasn’t been under 9% since 2020. His pull rates have also steadily ticked up, but his flyball rate saw a steep decline since 2022, which seems to be intentional. That has led to an uptick in batting average, and Wade Jr. was able to hit 17 home runs in 2023 despite that decreased fly ball rate, so there will still be some power given his quality of contact. However, with him no longer playing the outfield, you’re looking at a .260 hitter at the first base position with 15 home run power who will sit against left-handed pitching. That’s not too much different a profile than what we discussed with Ty France. Still, it can be helpful in deeper formats since nothing Wade does hurts you, and he hits leadoff for the Giants which will give him solid production in runs scored. He gets an added boost in OBP leagues and is somebody who at least needs to e on our radars in shallower formats.

Ben Rice – 1B, New York Yankees (ADP: Undrafted)

I wrote about Ben Rice in my article on potential second-year breakout hitters and would be all-in on him if we knew the Yankees could make him their starting DH. As I pointed out in that article, Rice had a 15.6% barrel rate in his MLB sample size, which was well above the 6.9% MLB average. He also posted a 10.5% SwStr%, a 77.2% contact rate, and his xBA of .235 was well above his actual .171 batting average if you’re into that sort of thing. Rice also had a great 2024 season in the minors, hitting .273/.400/.567 with 24 home runs and 10 steals in 79 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and has always had good plate discipline. His pull-heavy approach would also work well in Yankee Stadium, so there is a lot to like here.

However, his main competition for DH at-bats (apart from Aaron Judge who could be used there) is Dom Smith, who also appears on this list and has had a good spring, going .294/.286/.588 with three home runs and 12 RBI in 35 plate appearances. Now that Smith is 29 years old, we kind of know who he is by now, but he is a career .246 hitter with an 8% barrel rate, which is not anything to scoff at. He doesn’t have the upside of somebody like Rice, so we’d prefer Rice get the opportunity for fantasy purposes, but Dom Smith still makes quality contact and would be able to get to more power in Yankee Stadium than he did at Citi Field or Fenway Park, so he could emerge onto the radar in deeper formats if he’s given a chance.

Jack Suwinski – OF, Pittsburgh Pirates and Rowdy Tellez – 1B, Seattle Mariners

I’m not going to write many words about Suwinski and Tellez here since they’re unlikely to start for their teams, but I need to point out that they qualified for this leaderboard. Yes, even Suwinski, who had just an 11.1% SwStr%. I have been enamored with both of these players in fantasy leagues before, and they are both having a great spring training, so I want to make sure they’re on your radars.

Suwinski showed intriguing power and speed in 2023 but also struck out 32% of the time and posted a .224 batting average, so there was some interest in seeing what he would do in 2024. What happened was that he attempted to become more aggressive, swinging almost 8% more overall and making more contact but posting worse exit velocities and seeing his barrel rate fall to 8.3% He also increased his groundball rate to 50% which sapped his fantasy value. However, in spring training we’re seeing Suwinski swing a little less and cut his SwStr% under 11%. He seems to be trying to get the ball in the air more again, and that has led to a .355/.417/.613 slash line with one home run and three steals. There has always been solid quality of contact here, with a career 12.8% barrel rate, so if Suwinski can land on an approach that works for him, I think he can produce fantasy value.

Rowdy Tellez also qualified for this leaderboard despite his underwhelming one season in Pittsburgh. While his results may not have been staggering, Tellez made clear improvements in 2024 to get back closer to the player who hit 35 home runs in 2022. After cutting his overall swing rate by 5% in 2023, Tellez was back to a slightly more aggressive approach in 2024, swinging more, both inside and outside the zone, and posting a career-high zone contact rate with just a 9% swinging strike rate. He has a modest fly ball rate and his exit velocities are not reaching his 2022 peak, but Tellez hits the ball hard enough and makes enough contact that can still provide decent power production, as evidenced by his .297/.333/.595 slash line with three home runs in 39 plate appearances this spring. T-Mobile Park is not a great offensive environment, so that will hurt Tellez’s production in 2025, but he seems to be just one Mitch Haniger injury away from being the primary designated hitter in Seattle, and so that should at least have us aware of him in deeper formats.