After years of success with the club after coming through the New York Red Bulls academy, left back John Tolkin is reportedly on the move to Holstein Kiel in the Bundesliga. Tolkin helped lead the Red Bulls to an appearance in MLS Cup last season while also being a key part of the United States men’s u-23 team that went to the Paris Olympics. But after 114 appearances for the Red Bulls in all competitions during his career, the 22-year-old could be embarking on a risky new adventure, and good thing he is.
Even after defeating Dortmund, Holstein Kiel are 17th in the Bundesliga, only off the bottom of the league via goal difference and in real danger of relegation. They see Tolkin as a piece of the puzzle of improving a defense that has allowed a league-high 43 goals, hence them potentially spending a club record €2.5 million to secure Tolkin’s services. But, it’s also a move that could very well end with Tolkin playing in the 2. Bundesliga with his future up in the air similar to George Bello.
Bello left Atlanta United in 2022 to join an Arminia Bielefeld side struggling to stay up in the Bundesliga before eventually getting relegated. When he left Major League Soccer, Bello was on the fringes of the USMNT but now he’s in Austria having taken a step back league-wise wise and it’s an opportunity for other players like Tolkin.
Ricardo Pepi is another example in how a move to a relegation-threatened squad can go wrong. After moving to FC Augsburg from FC Dallas, Pepi struggled for playing time as the club looked to avoid relegation. While he did end up finding a home in the Eredivisie with PSV, that wasn’t until after the young striker missed out on a World Cup squad. Tolkin has the benefit of not moving directly in a World Cup year but there are plenty of factors at play when making the jump abroad.
While we’re in a time of more Americans than ever playing abroad, the instances of them making 40-plus appearances in MLS before making the jump are rare. Players like Weston McKennie and Joe Scally made the jump quite early, and for established MLS players, their ceiling has been lower than younger Americans to move. Mark McKenzie, Tyler Adams, Matt Turner, Caleb Wiley, James Sands and Gianluca Busio are the only Americans to fit those criteria and still be in a top-five league.
Defining the meaning of success in these moves can be tough but making it from MLS to become a consistent starter for your club is a pretty fine bar and one that only Busio and Adams have accomplished in these leagues. McKenzie could be on the way there in Ligue 1 but for the others, they either just joined their clubs or have much more to do in order to earn more playing time for clubs.
There was a time when players like Tim Ream and Clint Dempsey could leave MLS to go into top scenarios but for the vast majority of moves abroad, they have to either involve moves to stepping-stone leagues or accrue a fair amount of risk in order to make it to a top-five league.
Given that Holstein Kiel has a chance at avoiding relegation, the risk does have quite a reward associated with it. Tolkin has a chance to become a mainstay in the Bundesliga while also increasing his chances at being a regular for the United States men’s national team under Mauricio Pochettino. Antonee Robinson’s backup was starting right back Sergino Dest, but with his ACL injury, Robinson has effectively been operating without an appropriate backup.
Since Robinson has been healthy and playing as one of the best left backs in the world, this hasn’t been an issue, but in longer tournaments, being able to rotate and have different proven options is critical. Part of why the United States crashed out to the Netherlands during the World Cup in Qatar was due to not being able to rotate players during the group stage, and if Tolkin can prove himself, it’s fair to believe that he would be a rotational option to spell Robinson at times.
It all doesn’t end with staying up in the Bundesliga though, as relegation doesn’t mean that things are over. Busio has now spent time in Serie A and Serie B with Venezia, being a regular starter for the team in both divisions. He’s also breaking into the USMNT mix at 22 and is a good example of where success in MLS can lead after spending significant time with Sporting Kansas City.
Given that there’s no right way to make it in Europe and that a risk-free option also doesn’t exist, it’s all about finding the best fit for a player. If Holstein Kiel plans to give Tolkin a fair shot at playing time and he trusts himself to help the club avoid relegation, there’s no reason for him to not make the jump into the fire. A dynamic left back, at a minimum, this will be a fun move to keep an eye on.
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