Position players reported to camp for the Blue Jays Tuesday morning and there wasn’t a contract extension with slugging first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This means his self-imposed deadline to reach an extension wasn’t met and he now intends to hit free agency next offseason.
“I’m here. We didn’t get an agreement,” Guerrero said through an interpreter. “Now, they’re going to have to compete with 29 other teams.”
Obviously things can still change during the season, but often times when something like this happens, the player does hit free agency. It’s possible he ends up right back where he started. We just saw it happen with Pete Alonso and the Mets. There are other times it means the end of the road is coming, though.
Guerrero, 25, finished second in AL MVP voting in 2021 and sixth last season, when he hit .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+), 44 doubles, 30 homers and 103 RBI as one of the Blue Jays’ few bright spots. He’s already a four-time All-Star.
He mentioned that the Jays will have to compete with 29 other teams to sign them, so let’s attempt to rank all 30 in the Vlad Jr. sweepstakes. Not that they all have a chance…
No chance
Not every team has the financial wherewithal to make a serious offer to Guerrero — and this is where many of these fan bases would say there needs to be a salary cap — so we might as well start crossing off names. Some of the teams are here because their ownership wouldn’t dare even think about spending as much as it would need to. We also start with two teams that don’t currently have a permanent home and, as such, surely couldn’t land Guerrero even if they wanted to afford him.
30. (Sacramento) Athletics
29. Tampa Bay Rays
28. Miami Marlins
27. Chicago White Sox
26. Pittsburgh Pirates
25. Cleveland Guardians
24. Milwaukee Brewers
23. Cincinnati Reds
While the rest of the teams listed are among the smallest markets in baseball, the White Sox obviously split the third-largest market in the league. Though they are the lesser half in terms of revenue, they still really shouldn’t be relegated to this portion of the list. They sit here for two reasons. One, they were historically bad last year and are undergoing a drastic rebuild. There’s no way Guerrero would even want to sign with them. Secondly, ownership. The White Sox’s biggest free-agent contract ever was the five-year, $75 million deal to Andrew Benintendi. The A’s and White Sox are the only two teams to never sign a deal worth at least $100 million.
Would be a monster upset
22. Baltimore Orioles
21. Colorado Rockies
20. Kansas City Royals
19. Detroit Tigers
18. St. Louis Cardinals
17. Minnesota Twins
The teams in this tier likely have ownership that would be willing to discuss a deal for Guerrero, but it’s probably just not in the cards. For example, the Twins signed Carlos Correa twice to substantial deals, but ownership has since decided to tamp down spending. We could run through each of these teams, but it isn’t really necessary. The bottom line is it just won’t happen, barring something unforeseen.
Hard to find a fit
16. San Diego Padres
After being accustomed to seeing the Padres splurge in recent years, it’s hard to shake the feeling that they’d definitely be out on any big-time free agent. And maybe the ownership situation gets settled better during the offseason and we see a return to what it was like in the final few years before Peter Seidler’s death. For now, though, we can’t rank them higher. It seems like they’ll be tightening belts, financially, instead of going big for Vlad Jr.
15. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners absolutely have the money to win free-agent bidding for the services of a player like Guerrero, but they haven’t really flexed in such fashion since grabbing Robinson Canó and that was over a decade ago. The Julio Rodríguez extension was a big one, but that’s different than trying outbid other teams. Plus, that extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark isn’t the best selling point to a player like Guerrero.
14. Houston Astros
They play in one of baseball’s bigger markets and have shown the ability to pay for big free agents at times under owner Jim Crane. He’s also far too often talking about not wanting to spend too much money on player payroll. In looking at how the roster is shaking out now with Christian Walker at first base, Isaac Paredes at third but maybe having to move to second or first, Jose Altuve at second but maybe moving to outfield along with the fact that the Astros just traded Kyle Tucker one year away from free agency, I just don’t think they’ll be a Vlad Jr. suitor.
Can’t count them out, but …
13. Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson is locked up through 2029, meaning the Braves don’t need a first baseman and their resources would be better used elsewhere. I do find it interesting that Marcell Ozuna, their DH, is set to hit free agency after the 2025 season and he’s been greatly productive at the plate the past few seasons. We don’t know how 2025 is gonna go down, but it’s possible the Braves enter the offseason feeling like they need a huge bat. It just doesn’t feel like this is a Braves-y move.
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
When it comes to dollars, the Dodgers can never be counted out. They still have Freddie Freeman signed through 2027, though, and Shohei Ohtani has DH on lockdown. They’d really have to move things around to make room for Vlad Jr. and I’m just not seeing it. You can’t put them any lower, though, because they are the Dodgers.
11. New York Mets
Again, the Mets — with the backing of mega-wealthy owner Steve Cohen — should never be counted out on any free agent this far away from when the player actually hits free agency. After landing Juan Soto to the tune of $765 million, though, with Francisco Lindor being paid $34.1 million per year through 2031, it doesn’t feel like this is the likeliest landing spot. They could still have Alonso at first another year, too, before Mark Vientos might need to be moved there. Soto might need to eventually go to DH, too. My hunch is they’ll need to spend more on rotation help moving forward than another slugging first baseman.
10. Los Angeles Angels
Many will love making the connection that Vlad Jr. was ages 5-10 when his father played for the Angels. I’m not sure it matters.
What does matter is the Angels have a ton of money and continue to try and throw said money at their problems in a desperate attempt to get Mike Trout back to the playoffs.
They actually don’t have a ton of long-term commitments anymore. The albatross that is Anthony Rendon’s contract ends after 2026 while only Trout remains on the books past 2027. If they wanted to make Guerrero a huge, long-term deal, they could pull it off. It’s been such a poorly run franchise for a while, though, that it’s hard to see Guerrero viewing it as a favorite. I could be persuaded to bump the Angels up a category, though.
9. Chicago Cubs
Top executive Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. That’s the major X-factor here. The Cubs have financial might but haven’t shown it very often under Hoyer. Is that a product of ownership or Hoyer himself? It’s hard to tell. We have no idea what will transpire there and the impending free agency of Kyle Tucker looms. What if the Cubs fail to re-sign Tucker and Michael Busch takes a step back in his second full year at first base? There might well be an opening.
Under the current structure of the front office, I see very, very little chance the Cubs even pursue Guerrero, but there’s just so much unknown.
The Contenders
8. San Francisco Giants
They’ve spent plenty of money recently on position-playing talent like Matt Chapman and Willy Adames and there isn’t really an obvious first baseman blocking the possible acquisition of Guerrero, especially with LaMonte Wade Jr. hitting free agency after this season. It’s a really tough park for hitters, but money talks and the Giants could show themselves as a strong playoff contender this season. Buster Posey now doing the selling to free agents, with his Hall of Fame and championship pedigree, could be a big plus, too.
7. Texas Rangers
The 2023 champions are gearing up for a nice bounce-back season in 2025, but they don’t have a long-term answer at first base on their roster. They openly discussed wanting to dial down spending after the championship, but if they want to ramp things back up, Guerrero is a great start. Every ingredient needed for a mutually beneficial marriage is here.
6. Washington Nationals
The Nationals have shown the willingness to spend big in the past when they were pushing to contend for a title. They won one in 2019 with some high-priced talent on hand, too. Shortly thereafter, they stripped things down and went through a rebuild, but they are ready to start coming out of it. The only post-arbitration salary player on the books past 2025 is Keibert Ruiz on an extremely club-friendly deal (eight years, $50 million).
There’s some intriguing young talent in the lineup in players like James Wood, Dylan Crews and CJ Abrams. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be a nice veteran presence in the middle of them. It’s an excellent fit, should the Nationals want to pony up and Guerrero like the idea of joining the up-and-comers.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies mostly are running it back for 2025, as well they should. They are stacked. They’ll have J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez coming off the books before 2026, though. Schwarber is six years older than Guerrero, so — depending on how 2025 goes, obviously — it’s possible the Phillies jump at the chance to sign Guerrero and let Schwarber walk in free agency. They could always see if Bryce Harper is up for a return to the outfield, too, clearing first base for Guerrero.
4. Boston Red Sox
This was a lot better fit before the Alex Bregman signing complicated matters with the fallout including Rafael Devers refusing to move off third base. In fact, they were my pick prior to all this drama.
There are a ton of ways this gets sorted out, though. Maybe Rafael Devers just doesn’t want to be an everyday DH at this point in his career and Triston Casas either has a bad year or gets hurt, paving the way for Devers to move to first. Surely the Red Sox wouldn’t circle back and sign Guerrero and make Devers even angrier. But maybe Devers takes to DH. Maybe Devers stays at third base, Bregman ends up a defensive whiz at second base and the Red Sox trade Casas, opening first base for a Guerrero signing. It’s all complicated and muddies the waters a bit. But Guerrero playing the next decade or so of his career in Fenway Park is an amazing fit.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Here’s my dark-horse favorite. The D-backs have money and remind us every so often, such as when they landed Zack Greinke or, more recently, signed Corbin Burnes this offseason. Christian Walker, um, walked in free agency and the D-backs replaced him by trading for Josh Naylor. Naylor is a free agent after this season, though. There isn’t really a prospect on the rise that would trigger us to think they are leaving first base open.
On top of all this, the Diamondbacks look like they’ll be set up to contend for the foreseeable future. This is an outstanding fit.
2. New York Yankees
The Yankees made several moves in the aftermath of losing out on Juan Soto and one of them was to grab Paul Goldschmidt for first base. It’s only a one-year deal for the 37 year old, though, and he looks like he’s fully in his decline phase. The Yankees have plenty of financial muscle to win the bidding for Guerrero, if they so choose, and they certainly have the brand recognition to attract a player like him. On nearly any free agent, one could mindlessly rank the Yankees toward the top of the suitor lists with justification, but here it makes a lot of sense.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
If the Blue Jays are a serious franchise, they can’t let Guerrero go. It’s been years of him talking about how he’d like to stay if they step up to the plate with a legitimate offer. They’ve already been serious bidders, and lost, for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, so how would the optics look if they are willing to go hard after players from other teams when they have a homegrown superstar here who is embedded in the community and remains open to staying?
There’s still a chance this gets done in season, too, even though Guerrero insists he won’t re-negotiate until the winter. If someone asked me to take one team to sign Guerrero right now, I’d take the Blue Jays, but there’s enough unknown out there that if you gave me the chance to take either the Blue Jays vs. “the field” (the other 29 teams), I’d take the field.
Buckle up.
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