Week 4 NFL bold predictions: Packers hand Vikings first loss, Andy Dalton goes off again

Week 4 kicked off anticlimactically with quarterback Dak Prescott’s Dallas Cowboys winning his 13th consecutive start against the New York Giants in a 20-15 road victory. 

That run of dominance is tied for the second-longest winning streak by a quarterback versus a single opponent since at least 1950 with San Francisco 49ers Hall of Famer Steve Young (13 wins in a row against the Rams) and the GOAT Tom Brady (13 wins in a row against the Bills). Only Miami Dolphins Hall of Famer Bob Griese has a longer streak of wins against a single squad with 17 wins in a row against the Bills. 

Thursday night’s outcome was pretty predictable. Let’s pivot from that game to five unlikely things that could happen in Week 4. Here are this week’s five bold predictions for the remaining slate of games this week. 

Will Jordan Love return for the Packers? Won’t matter. Green Bay gives Vikings first loss of 2024

The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 and riding high off consecutive wins against the 2023 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers (23-17 in Week 2) and the 2023 AFC South champion Houston Texans (34-7 in Week 3) entering their first matchup of 2024 with the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. 

Much of their success comes from what defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his unit are doing: they lead the NFL with 16 sacks and 54 quarterback pressures entering Week 4. That’s a tough defense to crack. The Packers will do so and hand Minnesota their first loss whether or not Jordan Love is healthy enough to return to play after suffering an MCL sprain. He has been a limited practice participant this week. 

What’s one of the easiest ways to slow down an aggressive pass rush? Don’t allow them to pass rush at all by hitting them in the face by running the ball. That’s something Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has made a focal point of his offense the last two weeks with Love on the sideline. Green Bay’s 612 rushing yards this season are a team’s most in their first three games since the 2019 Baltimore Ravens totaled 650 in their first three games. That Ravens team broke the NFL single-season team record for rushing yards in a season with 3,297. 

Tennessee Titans castoff Malik Willis has filled the void left by Love’s absence admirably in victories against the Colts and Titans the last two weeks. His 9.8 yards per pass attempt and 9.5 yards per carry both lead the NFL since Week 2 among players to have a minimum of 12 attempts for each category. Willis is only the fourth player in the last 50 years to lead the league in both categories in a two-week span along with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts in 2022, Titans quarterback Steve McNair in 1997 and Eagles quarterback Randall Cunningham in 1987. The Packers have also used motion on the highest rate of any team in the NFL, 85.3%. That’s a tool that helps quarterback identify what a defense is doing pre-snap, and no one has even done so at a rate of 80% or higher — Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams are the next closest team with a motion rate of 76.2%. 

Defensively, the Packers will have to deal with a quarterback in Sam Darnold who is coming off the best game of his career with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-7 win against the Texans. Darnold’s discipline and ball security will be tested in Week 4 against a Green Bay defense that leads the league with nine takeaways through the first three weeks of the season, seven of which are interceptions. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has the Packers playing a much more aggressive brand of football than his predecessor Joe Barry: The Packers had seven interceptions in all of 2023, a total they have already matched, and only 18 takeaways last season, a figure Green Bay is already halfway toward reaching. 

Hafley’s unit put on a masterclass in Week 3 on the road against the Tennessee Titans, racking up eight sacks (one short of the Packers’ single-game record), three takeaways and a pick-six by Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander. Free agent acquisition safety Xavier McKinney also deserves plenty of the credit for the Packers hot start: he leads the NFL with three interceptions, which is a higher figure than the two catches for 23 yards that he has allowed in coverage this season. Green Bay hasn’t had a safety this dynamic since Nick Collins was roaming around for their Super Bowl XLV championship team in 2010. 

Oh, and if Love does play on Sunday, that’s a clear advantage for the Packers. LaFleur and Love made a mockery of Flores’ defense in Week 17 last season, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns on 24 of 33 passing in a 33-10 Packers road win over the Vikings on New Year’s Eve.   

Andy Dalton, Panthers push Bengals to 0-4

In his first start in a year, Andy Dalton became the first quarterback to throw for 300 or more yards (319) and three or more touchdowns (three) in a game this NFL season in Carolina’s 36-22 road win at the Raiders in Week 3. He will now start against his former team, the Cincinnati Bengals, the squad for whom he is the all-time passing touchdowns leader with 204. 

 Dalton’s connection with Diontae Johnson yielded the best day of the six-year vet’s career as he totaled 122 receiving yards. Johnson accumulated more targets (14) catches (8), receiving yards (122), and touchdowns (1) in Week 3 than he did in the first two games this season combined with 2023 first overall pick quarterback Bryce Young starting. 

Carolina with face a Bengals defense in Week 4 that surrendered 38 points, 22 first downs, three touchdowns in three red zone drives and three fourth down conversions in as many attempts in 38-33 loss against the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Opponents are completing 75% of passes against Bengals this season, tied for the second-highest rate allowed in the NFL entering Week 4.  

If Dalton beats the Bengals, Cincinnati will be 0-4 this season. The last time the Bengals started 0-4, Andy Dalton was their starting QB (2019, started season 0-11). Andy Dalton started 13 games in the last season the Bengals started 0-4 (CIN finished 2-14 in 2019, lost first 11 games). Time is a flat circle, and Dalton will have a hand in the Bengals going 0-4 once again.   

Jalen Hurts throws multiple passing TDs, no interception vs. Buccaneers strong pass defense

One might think this bold prediction is a little mean-spirited. That might be fair, but these are the facts: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrown an interception in seven consecutive games, the longest such streak by an Eagle since Ty Detmer in 1996. His 26 giveaways since 2023 are also the most in the NFL. 

Hurts not throwing an interceptions would legitimately qualify as bold, especially on the road against this stingy Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense. Opponents have thrown two interceptions against them and have yet to throw a touchdown against head coach Todd Bowles’ unit. That’s the best touchdown-to-interception ratio allowed in the NFL this season. 

Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert is coming off of the best game of his career in Philly’s Week 3 win at the Saints, registering 10 catches for 170 yards in a game. He keeps the groove going with Hurts and gets into the end zone while his quarterback goes cold turkey on his turnover addiction this week. 

Chargers upset Chiefs *if Justin Herbert plays*

The Los Angeles Chargers fell to 2-1 in Week 3 thanks to a 20-10 loss against the now-3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers. That result was heavily impacted by Chargers Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert leaving the game in the third quarter with an ankle injury and not returning. 

That game was tied at 10 until Herbert departed, but Los Angeles was only able to run 10 plays for eight yards after Herbert left midway through the third quarter. They punted on all 3 drives. If Herbert, who was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week with the ankle injury, can suit up on Sunday, the Chargers will snap the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs’ nine-game winning streak. 

Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s bunch has been stout defensively, ranking third  in scoring defense (11.0 PPG allowed) and sixth in rushing defense (91.7) this season. That group will face a Chiefs team that has been begging for someone to beat them throughout their nine-game winning streak as they have the smallest margin of victory in a 9-0 stretch in NFL history (+54).

Chiefs 9-Game winning streak, Including playoffs

* Smallest margin of victory (+54) in 9-0 stretch in NFL history

Future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce continues to ride the struggle bus inn 2024 with just eight catches and 69 receiving yards this season. That amounts to his fewest catches and receiving yards in any three-game span in his career. The soon-to-be 35-year-old, Kelce’s birthday is Oct. 5, has totaled 21 catches for 157 yards and no touchdowns in his last six regular season games, which marks six games in a row of under 50 receiving yards, the longest streak of his career. Kelce also has nine consecutive games without a receiving touchdown. That is also the longest such streak of his career.

Kansas City doesn’t get away with Kelce and the Chiefs offense struggling against Herbert and Harbaugh’s stingy defense in a stunning, upset loss. 

Seattle Seahawks go into Detroit, upset Lions on “Monday Night Football”

The Seattle Seahawks are currently 3.5-point road underdogs against the Detroit Lions this week, but they will leave Ford Field with a victory. Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald, who coordinated the NFL’s No. 1 defense with the Baltimore Ravens ins 2023, has the Seahawks looking almost as stingy immediately. 

They lead the NFL in pass defense (132.3 passing yards per game allowed) while ranking second in total yards per game allowed (248.7) and fourth in third down conversion rate allowed (26.1%). Combine that elite level defense with what Pro Bowl wide receiver DK Metcalf is doing, and that’s a recipe for success. The two-time Pro Bowler has over 100 yards and a receiving touchdown in consecutive games, tied for the longest such streak in team history. Metcalf breaks the record with his third in a row against an inexperienced group of Lions cornerbacks, helping lead Seattle to victory.