It’s easy to declare, based solely on history, that there will be seven to nine head-coaching vacancies in the coming coaching carousel. And maybe there will be.
For now, though, a distinct vibe has emerged. Some owners might not fill out the pink slip when the time comes.
Teams are beginning to realize that the revolving door doesn’t lead anywhere. That constant change leads to constant turmoil. That patience is a virtue, not a sign of ineptitude.
With that said, here’s what I’ve picked up over the past few days about the hot spots, beyond the three teams (Jets, Saints, Bears) where the hammer has fallen.
Jaguars: Many continue to be surprised that coach Doug Pederson wasn’t fired at the bye. It’s still viewed as a given that he’ll be gone after the season ends today. The only question is whether G.M. Trent Baalke stays. There’s chatter that Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson wants the job, but that he might want his own personnel executive.
Raiders: From the outside, it’s viewed as a matter of time before Antonio Pierce is out of time. From the inside, the vibe in the building is that nothing will happen. Maybe they’re delusional. Or maybe they believe ownership understands that the quarterback situation made it impossible to win this year. We’re told that, when learning that Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew were the top options for 2024, one member of the staff said this: “Anyone but them.”
Patriots: This is the mirror image of the Raiders situation. From the outside, few think owner Robert Kraft will blow out Jerod Mayo only a year after making him the heir to Bill Belichick. In the building, however, nerves are extremely frayed about what might happen once the season officially ends.
Giants: In October, co-owner John Mara said he doesn’t anticipate making any big changes. Then, the losses kept coming. A sense emerged that Mara might clean house, firing coach Brian Daboll and G.M. Joe Schoen. In the middle of December, we picked up indications that Schoen will be safe. Now, the vibe is that there will indeed be no changes. That Mara realizes he has been too quick to shake things up. That there’s no reason to think the next regime will be any better than the current one.
Cowboys: Coach Mike McCarthy has gone from definitely out to maybe in to no one really knows — and that’s the way Jerry Jones loves it. The concern is the devil he knows versus the devil he doesn’t. Again, will the next coach be any better than McCarthy? Whatever Jones does, the clock is ticking; McCarthy’s contract expires on January 14, allowing him to talk to any other team that might be looking for a coach.
Buccaneers: From the moment Bill Belichick consigliere Mike Lombardi started pushing the phony notion that Todd Bowles might retire, some have wondered whether ownership might retire Bowles in the same way it retired Bruce Arians. Or maybe they’d do a Bowles/Liam Coen swap, similar to the decision to fire Lovie Smith and promote Dirk Koetter before anyone else could hire Koetter as their head coach. If the Bucs win the NFC South, however, Bowles is going nowhere. If they come up short today, losing to the Saints while the Falcons beat the Panthers, the situation bears monitoring.
Colts: All is quiet regarding the plans of owner Jim Irsay, who can’t be happy with the way the past two seasons have gone. Some think former Colts punter Pat McAfee publicly torched the team last week because Irsay or someone close to him made it clear that significant change is coming.
There could be surprises. Often, there are. For now, that’s what we know about the most obvious possible places where changes will happen.
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