What’s at stake on final day of NBA regular season? Playoff clinching scenarios for Warriors, Nuggets, more

The final day of the 2024-25 NBA regular season is here, and there is still a lot to be decided in the Western Conference. The final three guaranteed playoff spots will be determined in the West on Sunday, and there are four teams — the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves — fighting for seeds 4-6. All 10 Eastern Conference playoff/play-in seeds are set.

All 30 NBA teams are in action on Sunday, and the most notable game on the schedule is Warriors vs. Clippers. The winner of that game is guaranteed a playoff spot in the West. The loser could slip to the Play-In Tournament.

There are many possibilities for playoff positioning in the West, so here’s a digestible way to understand what’s at stake during the final day of the season.’

What’s at stake on Sunday?

• Seeds 4-10 in the Western Conference are still undecided.
• The West’s No. 4 and No. 5 seeds will go to two of the Nuggets, Clippers and Timberwolves. 
• The Warriors control their own playoff destiny, but cannot finish higher than No. 6. 
• The Grizzlies will play in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game but could finish with either seed.
• The Kings and Mavericks will play in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in game but could finish with either seed.

Sunday’s clinching scenarios

(All tiebreakers are explained here.)

• The Nuggets clinch the No. 4 seed with a win against the Rockets.
• The Clippers clinch a top-five seed with a win against the Warriors.
• The Warriors clinch the No. 6 seed with a win against the Clippers.
• The Timberwolves clinch clinch a top-six seed with a win against the Jazz.
• The Kings clinch the No. 9 seed with a win against the Suns or a Mavericks loss.
• The Mavericks clinch the No. 9 seed with a win against the Grizzlies and a Kings loss.

So it’s actually relatively straightforward for the four West teams fighting for the three spots: Win and you’re in the playoffs. Lose and there’s a chance you’re facing the Grizzlies in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

On the other side of the clinching spectrum, the Wizards and Jazz both enter the day with 17-64 records, the worst mark in the NBA. The teams with the three worst records — which this season also includes the Hornets (19-62) — all have identical 14% chances to win the Draft Lottery. But the team with the worst record in the league is guaranteed a top-five pick in the draft. If the Wizards and Jazz finish the day tied, the league will use a random drawing to decide who gets the guaranteed top-five pick.