Opening Day 2025 is now just about a month away. With a new Major League Baseball season drawing closer, this is the opportune time to think about breakout seasons.
Indeed, CBS Sports published my annual column highlighting one breakout candidate per team earlier this week. It’s one of my favorite columns of the year, in part because it allows me to dive in on players who are largely unknowns. The logical follow-up, then, is to examine eight players who are more widely known after their own breakout efforts last season.
You’ll find my recounting of what these eight players did below, as well as my attempt at answering whether each player will maintain their new level of performance heading forward. The usual caveats about this being more of an art than a science apply.
Let’s get to it.
What’d he do? Blanco was perhaps the single most unexpected success story of 2024. He won a spot in Houston’s Opening Day rotation by default — it felt like nearly everyone else in camp was hurt — and then wasted no time proving he belonged for real, delivering a no-hitter in his season debut. The good times didn’t stop there. Blanco finished with a 141 ERA+ and an estimated 4.5 Wins Above Replacement. Brilliant stuff for someone who, as a 30-year-old, had seven prior MLB starts.
Is it real? Not entirely. Blanco looks to be a legitimate big-league starter now that he has an improved changeup at his disposal, but I don’t think he’ll post another four-win season. He possessed the second-lowest batting average on balls in play last year (min. 100 innings) despite surrendering an average quality of contact. Blanco also had one of the highest walk rates among starters. I’m making two assumptions here: 1) that he doesn’t show up with greatly improved control; and 2) that he yields hits at a higher frequency. Should both assertions come to pass, Blanco will have to successfully navigate increased traffic to keep his ERA in the 2.80 range. Maybe he pulls it off somehow; it wouldn’t be the first time he defies the odds. I think a step back is more likely.
What’d he do? Butler opened the season in the majors, but found himself optioned to the minors in May after posting a .555 OPS across his first 121 plate appearances. He returned to The Show a month later, and from that point forward he was a force to be reckoned with for the nomadic A’s. Butler closed out the year hitting .291/.330/.565 with 20 home runs in 84 games.
Is it real? Everything is pointing in the right direction. Butler generates big-time power from his well-above-average bat speed, most of which manifests to right-center field. He has an above-average feel for the strike zone, and his overall swing-and-miss rate is deceptive since he made gains in that area after resurfacing in the majors. (He went from connecting on fewer than 70% of his swings through April to making contact on more than 77% from June onward.) Butler is also a heady baserunner, going 18-for-18 on stolen-base attempts despite not being a burner.
What’d he do? Crochet raised his stock and more than doubled his total career innings after the White Sox converted him to a starter during the spring. He showed off a fuller, more optimized repertoire after adding a cutter, and that plus above-average control landed him his first All-Star Game nod. Crochet has since been traded to the Red Sox in exchange for a package of prospects.
Is it real? Oh yeah. What’s more is that I think Crochet will fare even better in 2025 if he’s able to stay healthy. Not only does he have the stuff and command, but his numbers last season indicated he should have had a much smaller ERA than his 3.58 figure. To put it another way, Crochet had the best strikeout-minus-walk percentage (29.6%) in the majors (min. 100 innings); three of the other four pitchers who cleared 25% had ERAs of 2.40 or better. That group includes both Cy Young Award winners in Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal and an obscure rookie right-hander named Paul Skenes. Again, Crochet’s health is a big wild card, but he has the potential to author a special season.
What’d he do? Duran took home the All-Star Game MVP honors en route to recording one of the nine best seasons by a Red Sox hitter since 1961, as determined by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric. He then marred his breakout season by directing a homophobic slur at a heckler in August. He was suspended for two games and issued an apology in which he vowed to do better in the future.
Is it real? The unreliability of public-facing defensive metrics makes it difficult to proclaim Duran is a legitimate eight-plus-win player. At the same time, he’s clearly a talented player who contributes across the board. His fast bat and feel for the barrel provide him with power to all fields, and he’s posted roughly average whiff and chase rates. He’s one of the fastest baserunners in the league, and there’s no denying he’s shown a propensity for making difficult catches. Duran may not match last season’s WAR total, but he looks like a long-term foundational piece for the Red Sox.
What’d he do? Part of the trade return the Padres received from the Yankees for outfielder Juan Soto, King sustained the momentum he created as a starter late in the 2023 season. He appeared 31 times (just once in relief), establishing a new career-high in innings while generating a 139 ERA+ and a seventh-place Cy Young Award finish. He was, by WAR, San Diego’s most valuable starter.
Is it real? Yes, but with a caveat. King’s arsenal has never been in doubt, thanks to three pitches that grade as above-average or better: a sinker, slider, and sweeper. Last season was shocking because … well, he stayed hearty and hale all year long. King has otherwise battled his body throughout his career, resulting in him averaging fewer than 100 innings per big-league service year logged. That’s notable given he’s nearing his 30th birthday. If King can stay healthy again in 2025, I expect him to remain a plus starter for the Padres — and to hit the open market as a priority target for contenders.
What’d he do? Coming into 2024, Myers was best known as the player the Rays traded to the Guardians for Junior Caminero. In another indignity, he was already in his sixth organization despite being just 25 years old. Yet Myers received a big-league opportunity in late April, and he made the most of it by notching a 3.00 ERA and a 3.53 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 138 innings pitched.
Is it real? I am skeptical that Myers will continue to excel at this level. At the risk of overgeneralizing, starting pitchers usually have to miss bats or barrels to enjoy long-term success. Myers does neither. He ranked in the 15th percentile in whiff rate and in the 43rd percentile in barrel percentage, according to Statcast. (He also ranked in the 22nd percentile in ground-ball rate.) Myers does throw a lot of strikes, and maybe his vertically orientated arsenal is more effective than his modest (to be kind) pitch-quality grades indicate. Still, I think it’s more likely that he reverts to being a back-end starter than it is that he repeats as the ERA+ leader of Milwaukee’s rotation.
What’d he do? Profar validated all those decade-old prospect rankings that featured him at the top. He secured his first All-Star Game nomination, his first piece of hardware (a Silver Slugger Award), and his first down ballot Most Valuable Player Award consideration. He did it by hitting .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs. Each of those marks represented a new career high.
Is it real? Profar is the toughest player to answer this question on. If he were 24 years old, or 26, or even 28, I think it would be a resounding “yes” for me. But he’s not. Instead, Profar turned 32 last week. How much faith can you — should you — have in an age-31 breakout? I don’t know the answer. I do know all the underlying measures (his exit velocity and whiff and chase rates included) point in the right direction. I believe he legitimately improved his game, perhaps even by a fair margin. If you told me that Profar has the second-best season of his career in 2025, it wouldn’t shock me. As such, my official answer on this matter is going to be “more real than not.”
What’d he do? Vientos assuaged concerns that he was a Quad-A player and usurped Brett Baty as the Mets’ third baseman of the present and the future. How? By hitting .266/.322/.516 (135 OPS+) with 27 home runs across 111 games. Vientos even found himself batting second or third for most of New York’s postseason run, an unlikely scenario at the onset of the season.
Is it real? Vientos’ power is legitimate, that’s for sure. He did a better job of lifting the ball last season than he had in his previous big-league stints, and he would’ve had a 30-homer season if he had been handed the reins a week earlier. Otherwise? I’m not convinced he’s going to keep hitting 35% above the league-average mark. He’s prone to both swinging and missing within the zone and chasing outside of it. Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández has made hay with a similar skill set, but even his career OPS+ checks in at 121. Vientos will have a lovely career if he finds himself in that neighborhood; he just won’t be the second-most productive Mets regular. (Then again, that would likely be true heading forward even if Vientos did repeat last season in whole.)
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