Why Mavericks’ best trade deadline strategy is standing pat and getting healthy

The Dallas Mavericks’ most recent injury report ahead of a Monday night 130-108 win against the Washington Wizards featured six players, most of whom play a significant role in the team’s rotation. The injury train hit the Mavericks on Christmas Day when franchise centerpiece Luka Doncic went down with a left calf strain, and it hasn’t slowed down since. Extended absences are expected for starting center Dereck Lively II and backup forward Maxi Kleber, both suffering a fractured foot. Dante Exum has yet to play this season after undergoing wrist surgery after injuring it in a training camp workout, though the original timetable for his return is set to expire soon.

Suffice to say, it’s a bleak time for the Mavericks, who have gone 6-12 in Doncic’s absence, falling from fourth in the highly competitive Western Conference to ninth with only 1.5 games separating them and the 11th-placed Golden State Warriors. If you look at the standings, it may feel like the Mavericks should be doing something to vault them back into the top six of the West, but with the number of injuries to this roster, rushing to make a trade doesn’t seem like the logical move.

With less than 10 days until the trade deadline, here are three reasons why Dallas should be patient at the deadline.

Doncic’s return is likely around the corner

Doncic was re-evaluated on Jan. 25, exactly one month after going down with a calf strain on Christmas. There was no firm update other than he got an MRI, but Doncic’s goal is to return prior to the All-Star break, per the Dallas Morning News’ Mike Curtis. That’s positive news for a Dallas team that has floundered without its superstar point guard. Getting Doncic back ahead of the All-Star break will be like a quasi-trade acquisition in itself, as his presence alone is capable of lifting the Mavericks back into the top six in the West.

With Doncic missing a month of games he’ll likely need time to get back into playing shape, but even if that’s the case, having him out there will do wonders for a Mavericks team that has ranked 21st on offense since he’s been sidelined. Dallas just needs to tread water a little longer until Doncic swoops in like the life preserver he is to get the Mavericks back on track.

In the 22 games Doncic has played this season, he’s averaging 28.1 points on 46.4% from the floor, which still ranks fifth in the league in scoring. He’s the engine that keeps the Mavericks offense running and elite, and without him Kyrie Irving has had to shoulder too much without another reliable playmaker in the starting lineup. 

Doncic’s return will solve a lot of Dallas’ issues, so there’s no reason to make any rash decisions at the trade deadline when he’s played a little of a quarter of the season.

This is a top-four roster in the West when healthy

Dallas’ lineup of Doncic, Irving, Klay Thompson, PJ Washington and Lively has a 127.9 offensive rating, which ranks as the fourth-best lineup in the league. The only issue is that lineup has only managed to play 14 games together due to injuries to Doncic, Irving and Lively. But it’s a proof of concept for the reigning Western Conference champs, and serves as a light at the end of the tunnel for when this team is healthy. 

Lively’s return may not come until right before the playoffs, but Daniel Gafford (a deadline addition in 2024 as Dallas retooled its roster at the deadline last year) has been invaluable since the second-year big man has been sidelined. Gafford has averaged 18.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and three blocks during that span. Gafford was the starting center a year ago on a team that went to the NBA Finals, and has strong chemistry with Doncic in the pick-and-roll game as a lob threat.

It may be difficult for the Mavericks to see through the weeds right now, but anything outside of an upgrade to their frontcourt right now doesn’t seem like the best path forward right now. If this team was healthy leading up to the deadline, a better picture could’ve been formed about what they need to make a deep postseason run. Injuries put a damper on that, and unless there’s an obvious upgrade on the table, standing pat may be for the best right now.

Potential short-term targets

Like I said above, if the team was healthy maybe an upgrade to the bench could’ve been explored — and maybe it still can if it makes sense — but the only real need right now is a depth piece for the frontcourt. With Lively out until March or April, Kleber out with a fractured foot and Dwight Powell dealing with a hip strain, this should be the main focal point for Dallas at the deadline. That doesn’t mean the Mavericks need to surrender assets just for the sake of grabbing someone, but if they can buy low on a decent backup center or power forward, then it’s worth exploring.

Perhaps Robert Williams could be had for cheap from the Trail Blazers. He’s only played in 18 games due to the logjam in the frontcourt with DeAndre Ayton and Donovan Clingan, and therefore he’s been pushed out of the rotation. He’s a former All-Defensive big man with a litany of injury issues, but he could serve as an ideal stopgap until Lively returns hopefully later this season.

Another option could be Kevon Looney with the Warriors, who once dominated the Mavericks in the Western Conference finals in 2022, but has since fallen out of the rotation due to the emergence of Trayce Jackson-Davis. Looney would be a perfect half-season rental as he’s on an expiring $8 million deal, so Dallas wouldn’t have to commit long term to him. Maybe Andre Drummond is someone Dallas could kick the tires on since the Sixers have performed well below expectations with injuries of their own. Drummond does have a $5 million player option for next season, so not the ideal no-strings-attached type of trade, but he’s one of the best rebounders in the league, and would be nice to have coming off the bench.

The Mavericks are limping into the trade deadline, but they still have high expectations for the rest of the season. After pulling off two savvy deals at last season’s deadline that catapulted them to the NBA Finals, the Mavericks should instead be focusing their efforts on getting healthy and improving on the fringes. It’s not the most exciting approach, but when half your rotation is sidelined, there’s not a ton you can do, or should do, when this team has proven to be one of the best in the West when healthy.