The two playoff games this weekend — two of the final three games of the 2024 NFL season — are incredibly compelling. Obviously Bills at Chiefs (on CBS, natch) is just another monster matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. It needs very little introduction and you don’t need to be Don Draper to pitch anyone on watching it.
But Commanders at Eagles is pretty special, too, particularly for the appetizer to Sunday night’s main course in K.C. Jayden Daniels is a rookie playing in a conference title game against a hated division rival with a chance to turn back the clock and send Washington to the Super Bowl for the first time in a long time.
Eagles fans will likely continue to accuse me of hating on their team if I pick against them, and that’s fine. Chiefs fans might as well, and that’s fine, too. I think both these games could swing either way, honestly. There’s something intriguing about a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl, pairing Andy Reid against his old team for the second time in three years.
Yet there’s also something fascinating about running back the nostalgia of the early ’90s when Buffalo and Washington met in the Super Bowl, 1991 being Washington’s last appearance, with the Bills making it (and losing) two more times in a row after that.
Has Fox planned for this possibility at all? Not sure how many people remember but in the ’90s Fox decided to run an alternative halftime show to what the NFL was producing and fired up sketch comedy in between the second and third quarters despite not actually showing the game. It changed how the halftime show operates forever. Can we bring back Jim Carrey doing Fire Marshal Bill skits for the actual halftime show this year? Please, my childhood begs you.
Anyhow, let’s get to the picks and best bets for these games and get ready to soak in the remaining few minutes of football we’ve got left this season.
NFL playoff picks: Predicting winners for Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship and Commanders-Eagles NFC title game
John Breech
The Pick: Commanders (+6) at Eagles
This just feels like too many points with a banged-up Jalen Hurts. I know the Eagles quarterback returned from what could have been a bad leg injury and I know he did some bootlegs to both sides after getting hurt. That may have been designed to keep the Rams defense honest. It’s entirely possible he’s limited as a rusher, which dramatically changes what the Eagles do on offense. And Jayden Daniels is just SPECIAL, man. That dude doesn’t flinch in the face of pressure. He’s the first-ever rookie quarterback without a top-five scoring defense to make the conference championship. Kliff Kingsbury’s been dialing up great game plans. Dan Quinn has been in this spot before. There’s enough playmakers for Washington to score against Philly … they just have to stop Saquon Barkley from running absolutely wild, keep it close and hope to pull off the upset. It’s more likely/plausible than you think. Jayden and the Commanders also have serious backdoor potential here, and could sneak into the end zone late to cut this inside of six points, a la the Rams last week.
Dyami Brown over 3.5 receptions (-130)
Brown’s been a massive help in the postseason, stepping up and becoming the No. 2 receiver in this offense for Daniels. The fourth-year receiver out of UNC was generally regarded as kind of a gadget guy and/or solely a deep threat, with Olamide Zaccheaus really taking on the role of the second receiver behind Terry McLaurin. But over the last month or so, Brown’s been an integral part of this offense. He has four targets or more in every single game since the start of December, culminating with a blowup (revenge?) game against the Lions and, apparently, Amon-Ra St. Brown, last week when he was targeted eight times and came away with six catches for 98 yards. That built on his Wild Card Weekend performance when Brown caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and the Commanders first score of the game. The dude has turned a corner in a contract year and should be in line for another strong performance against Philly with all the attention being paid to McLaurin and the legs of his quarterback.
The Pick: Bills (+2) at Chiefs
Yes, we are betting against Patrick Mahomes. No, it does not feel good. But it might be the Bills’ time to finally get through much like — to borrow another 90s reference — Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls needed so many chances to get finally past the Bad Boy Pistons before breaking through and winning a title. The Bills aren’t playing firework-y football right now but they are playing smart football and haven’t been turning the ball over at all lately. Josh Allen has to believe he was snubbed for the MVP award based on the All-Pro voting and I expect another extremely clean game for the superstar quarterback. The Bills offensive line is probably the most unsung single unit in the entire NFL — they’ve been extremely dominant all season long and the Buffalo run game with James Cook has been superb this season. The Chiefs have been a little leakier against the run lately. I would expect the Bills to take full advantage and try to turn this into a slugfest with Mahomes needing to be perfect on a limited number of drives to win. The Bills need to get lucky on the defensive injury front with some guys being able to play and I would never be surprised if the Chiefs won. But this game should come down to whoever has the ball last (assuming it’s more than 12 seconds anyway, sheesh) and I think Buffalo finally gets it done.
Best Bet: Josh Allen anytime TD (-115)
Allen is keeping things a little closer to the vest it feels like, although I have an inkling he really uses his legs in this game. In his career against the Chiefs in the playoffs he has three games, featuring seven carries for 88 yards, 11 carries for 68 yards and 12 carries for 72 yards. He generally activates his legs more often in the playoffs and when the chips are down against the Chiefs he flat out becomes a second running back. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some early designed QB runs, particularly because the threat of Allen running only opens things up for Cook even more. And when they get down to the goal line in this game, I expect more of what we saw against Baltimore: Allen holding onto the ball and steaming into the end zone because it feels like the safest yard or two in football behind only the Philly Tush Push. This number still doesn’t reflect his goal-line usage.
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