From the moment the NBA signed new 11-year, $77 billion media deals, the NFL has wanted more. And it’s trying to get more, despite having at least four years left on current deals with CBS, Fox, NBC, and Amazon. (ESPN’s deal runs through the 2030 season.)
The play is simple. The NFL has the ability to pull the plug early on contracts that last, on paper, through 2033. And the league is trying to use the ability to take the arrangements back to market prematurely in order to get the networks to pay more money now.
Via multiple reports, and as first reported by John Ourand of Puck, the NFL has started the process by negotiating with CBS. The goal, reportedly, is to increase the annual rate from $2.1 billion to $3 billion.
As Ourand explains in the latest edition of his Varsity newsletter, “network observers and media analysts” have recently raised an interesting question. What happens if the networks decline to pay more money for years that were already signed, sealed, and delivered?
The league seems to be hoping to re-up the current networks in their current windows, with the potential exception of Amazon and NBC flip-flopping the Sunday night and Thursday night packages. The thinking is that the pivot to streaming will happen more quickly if Prime Video becomes a necessity on Sunday — the traditional day for nine hours of football viewing.
Then, streamers like YouTube and Netflix would pick up mini packages for maximum dollars: Christmas, the Week 1 international game, Thanksgiving Eve, international Sunday morning games, etc.
While the networks need the NFL (does anyone even watch any other network shows live?), the NFL needs the networks, too. They continue to have massive reach, and they can consistently pull together large audiences to watch NFL games.
Besides, the streamers may not want full-season packages, especially at $3 billion or more per year.
It’s something to watch as the NFL activates a strategy aimed at getting more from the networks than what the networks had planned to pay, starting as soon as the 2026 season. There’s a risk, in theory, that the NFL will overplay its hand in an effort to stuff maximum cash in its coffers.
That said, there’s a reality that the NFL can’t overplay its hand. That the NFL is too important to the networks for the networks to tap out.
